Is we back? February discussion thread

[Typhoon Tip]

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty decent model agreement on a complete shift from what we are seeing now in about 10-14 days. It’s that time of year.

Going to take a long time to melt out, but definitely could be some nice days towards mid March 

How about 5" of basin rain into this pack at 55F whilst the ground beneath is still frozen

mm? mmm?

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like Thursday night is coming !

[OrangeCTWX]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

People should learn what indices are, what they mean.

It would offer a huge manifold of knowledge, from which one may then understand operational models with better predictive skill. 

In this case, the indices (derived by weight the ensemble) support the emerging/ steadily increasing warm signal that we are seeing in the operationals. It doesn't mean that will go on forever until Earth's sitting on the surface of the sun... At some point the signal with "max" and or suffer daily idiosyncratic aspects not presently seen... But in principle, the totality of it would mean the end of winter and the onset of spring.   Yup. 

Right now ... you didn't ask but I'm fine with holding hyperbole to 'melt and mud season' - use that as a basis and then add if (and we probably will have to - ) we need. 

Yes thats definitely what I was implying with my post. 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel reasonably confident that when the February numbers are tabulated a couple of weeks from now, we'll see a repeat of this enabling layout that knee jerk triggers myopic types, that have trouble with multi-variate simultaneous awareness of reality they cannot see everyday, into more maddening evidence of compos mentis in the matter -

NOAA missed the boat on their winter temp prediction around these parts, as well as other areas around the country.  I put little faith in these predictions.  https://www.weather.gov/arx/winter2526outlook