Is we back? February discussion thread

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Rain and then a nice warm spell. Let’s wipe it clean.

You know this just as much a chance as going to be snow ( if not a bit more ) then it being rain.

[moneypitmike]

I have mindsy off for Presidents’ Day.  With no chance for a snow day, im less bothered by rain.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I have mindsy off for Presidents’ Day.  With no chance for a snow day, im less bothered by rain.

Says who? You're telling me it's written in stone that we're getting rain next Sunday into Monday? A week away and the models have not converged on which side of the snow or rain fence settled on. It seems like we're getting a storm, but to say it's just going to be rain is senseless at this point

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Says who? You're telling me it's written in stone that we're getting rain next Sunday into Monday? A week away and the models have not converged on which side of the snow or rain fence settled on. It seems like we're getting a storm, but to say it's just going to be rain is senseless at this point

 It’s a totally viable option. Setup isn’t great.

[dendrite]

Well that was a good run of cold temps, but sayonara, bon voyage, don’t forget to write.

Let’s finish winter off more like Valdez instead of Fairbanks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

If it's a real event, it's in a marginal atmosphere. 

About 15 or so years ago ... I began noticing that our "flop direction" is more wet than it used to be. We seemed to more and more so need a direct cold supply into/as a prerequisite, or systems tended to rain will less blue snow types ( winter).  It's kind of dilemma, because if we do have the direct cold sourcing, the N/stream is active ...but the catch 22 there is that the flow is sped up and compressing, which is a canvas negative interference.  I've been wondering since these models recently began to pull the N/stream away, if we might see this and there it is...

The event profiles are going back to more marginal temperature.  We snap back to a reality that we've been enabled for the past several months ... not to face. 

Also, this snow pack - at least around here ... - does not contain a huge load of water content. It's fluffy yet still since the bigger event on Jan 26.  If we get a 40 F raining coastal followed by +2 850 mb during transition season solar irradiance on d-slope backside flow, we will be bear ground probably faster the some might think. 

Cross that bridge I guess...  The GEFs aren't yet interested and keep thing progressive and weak through that period.  It's coming from midland strength southern streamer coming through the SW. It's actually similar to what led the big even on Jan 26, only this time ...no N/stream.  But it may not be coming from a very densely sampled atmosphere.  

Lot to consider -

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If it's a real event, it's in a marginal atmosphere. 

About 15 or so years ago ... I began noticing that our "flop direction" is more wet than it used to be. We seemed to more and more so need a direct cold supply into/as a prerequisite, or systems tended to rain will less blue snow types ( winter).  It's kind of dilemma, because if we do have the direct cold sourcing, the N/stream is active ...but the catch 22 there is that the flow is sped up and compressing, which is a canvas negative interference.  I've been wondering since these models recently began to pull the N/stream away, if we might see this and there it is...

The event profiles are going back to more marginal temperature.  We snap back to a reality that we've been enabled for the past several months ... not to face. 

Also, this snow pack - at least around here ... - does not contain a huge load of water content. It's fluffy yet still since the bigger event on Jan 26.  If we get a 40 F raining coastal followed by +2 850 mb during transition season solar irradiance on d-slope backside flow, we will be bear ground probably faster the some might think. 

Cross that bridge I guess...  The GEFs aren't yet interested and keep thing progressive and weak through that period.  It's coming from midland strength southern streamer coming through the SW. It's actually similar to what led the big even on Jan 26, only this time ...no N/stream.  But it may not be coming from a very densely sampled atmosphere.  

Lot to consider -

Yeah that’s my point, it’s marginal if it does come. I look at that setup and jsut go blech. Not for me. 
 

Anyways, could be fun after the warm up. 

[EastonSN+]

MJO....

[NoCORH4L]

How much of a warm up are talking?

[kdxken]

49 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Says who? You're telling me it's written in stone that we're getting rain next Sunday into Monday? A week away and the models have not converged on which side of the snow or rain fence settled on. It seems like we're getting a storm, but to say it's just going to be rain is senseless at this point

Looks like there's still some cold air around. 

 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looks like there's still some cold air around. 

 

Tenor of the season!

[dendrite]

I don’t think anyone will be upset about AN midnight temps at this point. The big warm anomalies will be west of us. Days don’t look overly warm on the whole.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How much of a warm up are talking?

3 or 4 days.  Maybe one tickles 50? 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I don’t think anyone will be upset about AN midnight temps at this point. The big warm anomalies will be west of us. Days don’t look overly warm on the whole.

The funniest part is you know he had no clue he was posting a map with temps a bit AN at midnight. Can’t make this stuff up 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The funniest part is you know he had no clue he was posting a map with temps a bit AN at midnight. Can’t make this stuff up 

They’ll be days in 40s and maybe a day or two warmer than that. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The funniest part is you know he had no clue he was posting a map with temps a bit AN at midnight. Can’t make this stuff up 

Skynet has an AN stretch of +5 to 10. Not sure I’d call that a torch, but multiple days into the mid 40s.

[dendrite]

I’m getting sucked into the either/or vortex…we can run a bit AN for a week and still avoid the big anomalies toward the Plains.

[Ginx snewx]

My kind of winter. The path to the chicken coop had a nice 4 foot drift. 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tenor of the season!

Don’t get wise.   We all know what the tenor has been….and the tenor has been for cold.  But I have No problem with a warm up….it’ll be a relief.  We Reshuffle some, and see what later Feb and March can bring.
 

And then we hope spring sets in by the last week of March…And we get nice and mild.  

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Skynet has an AN stretch of +5 to 10. Not sure I’d call that a torch, but multiple days into the mid 40s.

That’s what it’s looked like. A few days near or over 40, but no torch. There’s been calls for a stretch of 50’s. Daily normals are near 40 by then in spots so we are heading towards milder time of year anyway 

[Kitz Craver]

Both AI’s are still suppressed and south, so not set in stone.

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t think anyone will be upset about AN midnight temps at this point. The big warm anomalies will be west of us. Days don’t look overly warm on the whole.

We get some meat next weekend, our pack very much survives and probably solidified and then maybe we get into a few weeks of late season fun.  By late March, I’m begging to get out.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Both AI’s are still suppressed and south, so not set in stone.

The compromise could be beautiful

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what it’s looked like. A few days near or over 40, but no torch. There’s been calls for a stretch of 50’s. Daily normals are near 40 by then in spots so we are heading towards milder time 

Well like Scoot said, there’s a chance to pop a warmer 50-55 in there if we DSD with >0C 850s. TBD

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what it’s looked like. A few days near or over 40, but no torch. There’s been calls for a stretch of 50’s. Daily normals are near 40 by then in spots so we are heading towards milder time of year anyway 

Take the over on 40 lol.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Well like Scoot said, there’s a chance to pop a warmer 50-55 in there if we DSD with >0C 850s. TBD

I don’t understand why this is so hard for people to grasp. It’s getting towards second half of February. This is what happens. Deal with it.

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m getting sucked into the either/or vortex…we can run a bit AN for a week and still avoid the big anomalies toward the Plains.

Go ahead and ruin their d-drip, then

that's what they're after.  They think they're manipulating you, programming you to say something that will allay their fears and dread. 

You need to tell them, "you will be afraid, and dread, and like it!" 

Then, let the actual AN highs be what they may.   Haha. 

Seriously though, a large part of this is the physical tactility of it anyway.  If we get to 47 and the wind is light and sky blue with sun now strong enough to cause the air to shimmer, you'll have dudes with there arms out of their pickup truck windows and people out for runs in shorts and a tee-shirt.  The acclimation is pretty pressed on the cold side so nape days are gonna feel even warmer ... magnifying the winter enthusiast's fears and dread just as much as if it were 60, anyway.  

So go with fun killer - you'll score.   lol

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t get wise.   We all know what the tenor has been….and the tenor has been for cold.  But I have No problem with a warm up….it’ll be a relief.  We Reshuffle some, and see what later Feb and March can bring.
 

And then we hope spring sets in by the last week of March…And we get nice and mild.  

Yeah that's what im sayin'. After about the first week-10 days of April our snow chances down here virtually drop to zero. Barring some weird freak event. As long as its not like 2020 and snowing May again, im good with the last week of March/first week of April.

I was just looking at Feb 2018 climo and i forgot that after that late February 4-8" paste storm we nearly hit 80 a few days later. Totally forgot about that insane torch in Feb. Then March 18 happened. We had little snowpack that season... it would snow-melt-rain-snow repeat. 

Late Season SNE

Late Season CT

 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t understand why this is so hard for people to grasp. It’s getting towards second half of February. This is what happens. Deal with it.

Yup, I absolutely agree the epic deep winter Arctic feel is done. Snow chances are not though, which you have also said. I think it hurts people and I’m one of them, to lose the cold constant pack, but it’s just that time of year. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t understand why this is so hard for people to grasp. It’s getting towards second half of February. This is what happens. Deal with it.

Yeah…BDL averages 4 days of 50+ in Feb since 2000. 7 days of 45+ my math says that’s 1/4 of the days.