Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The woman just text is to our normal highs. Maybe a degree or two higher. But nothing earth-shattering. It looks like we're going to get back to a a wintry and stormier pattern again not too long after next Valentines day.

More than a couple degrees AN. But just for a few days. Then it returns in some shape or form. But then you’re heading into second half of Feb. I mean it’s going to wind down at some point.

[Damage In Tolland]

I see one day in that following week that hits 40. Where’s this long torch ?

[HoarfrostHubb]

We head towards bowling ball season. 

[WinterWolf]

It’s zero or below at the moment…I don’t think anybody is expecting this to continue…it’s been quite the cold winter.  I think what Snowcrazed and DIT are asking and saying is that the colder air comes back as Scott just said, and sure, it’s not gonna be like the last few weeks…that would truly be crazy, but it will be below average again for later February and early March. 

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More than a couple degrees AN. But just for a few days. Then it returns in some shape or form. But then you’re heading into second half of Feb. I mean it’s going to wind down at some point.

I think everybody knows it winds down at some point. But that’s not what they’re asking. There will be modration/some warming and melting in SNE.  We can use some. But that isn’t the end and spring coming this year in mid February with the moderating, the BN looks to return, of course not in this extreme way however. 

[mahk_webstah]

Euro AI still has a light snow Tuesday night Wednesday. But the one on the 19th and 20th has the low over Rhode Island and then very slowly progressing through southern New England to the Gulf of Maine at 9:89. I don’t see it it’s ensemble so maybe it’s different?

[WinterWolf]

Man..Arctic tundra out there…fresh snow and deep pack. No complaints here. 1 degree here now, and 4 in far northern Maine.  Impressive.  

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think everybody knows it winds down at some point. But that’s not what they’re asking. There will be modration/some warming and melting in SNE.  We can use some. But that isn’t the end and spring coming this year in mid February with the moderating, the BN looks to return, of course not in this extreme way however. 

No, spring isn’t coming. But people need to accept the moderation. 

[dendrite]

Yeah there appears to be a step up over the next 10-14 days and climo is starting to climb too. There’s a good chance we don’t see colder than this the rest of the season…especially WNE. Climo is approaching 40° at the big SNE sites it won’t have to be much AN to pop some 40s. But don’t bite me…winter isn’t leaving yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh.. the back may be broken?  Either way, winter isn't dead, however. 

The only change in guidance/means/blends that I see is that the intense cold is alleviating. 

It kinda has to, anyway.   We're leaving the solar min today.  The variance is not noticeable just standing there. It's a virtual boundary. However, circa the 20th and beyond, anomalies have to get more and more extreme to offset that factor.  Coupling this with an abeyance of direct N/stream .. academic.

In so far as what this means for the next 10 or so day...  it looks like to me that  the direct N/stream dominating flow type is backing off, that's all.  Actually beginning on the heels of this present annoyance.  However, not sure that marks the end as much as the emotion is marketing the end.  Look at what is actually on the guidance, we're just changing from N/stream dominating cold, to oscillatory between seasonally cool and seasonally warm. In other words, typical for February.   

Normal February is still winter. 

Should the warm side of those oscillations win by some small margin...meh. I expect that much. That's more like manifesting the 1990-2020 climatology + the ongoing correction term, a latter aspect that is always in play really.  Different discussion. 

this can all change .. but in so far as what is physically presented (and has been recently) in the guidance suites, not sure I see winter as being hugely hobbled just yet.  The clock is certainly ticking...  

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

There will be a few days in the 50s between feb 16-21 lock it in.  

[VivaManchVegas]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Close to.a monster here next weekend.on the 6z GFS but goes over to rain.. a good amount of snow first though

Better roll out the hose for the back up sump pump.  Its a price worth paying for a step closer to spring. 

Yesterday was pictured below. Now I wait at RSW for the cold plunge back into NH.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh.. the back may be broken?  Either way, winter isn't dead, however. 

The only change in guidance/means/blends that I see is that the intense cold is alleviating. 

It kinda has to, anyway.   We're leaving the solar min today.  The variance is not noticeable just standing there. It's a virtual boundary. However, circa the 20th and beyond, anomalies have to get more and more extreme to offset that factor.  Coupling this with an abeyance of direct N/stream .. academic.

In so far as what this means for the next 10 or so day...  it looks like to me that  the direct N/stream dominating flow type is backing off, that's all.  Actually beginning on the heels of this present annoyance.  However, not sure that marks the end as much as the emotion is marketing the end.  Look at what is actually on the guidance, we're just changing from N/stream dominating cold, to oscillatory between seasonally cool and seasonally warm. In other words, typical for February.   

Normal February is still winter. 

Should the warm side of those oscillations win by some small margin...meh. I expect that much. That's more like manifesting the 1990-2020 climatology + the ongoing correction term, a latter aspect that is always in play really.  Different discussion. 

this can all change .. but in so far as what is presented (and has been recently) in the guidance suites, not sure I see winter as being hugely hobbled just yet.  The clock is certainly ticking...  

 

 

Nope not dead. But we’re turning the corner and really nothing on the horizon. Hopefully after we warm up we can finally get out of this stein pattern and get storms.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There will be a few days in the 50s between feb 16-21 lock it in.  

Looks like the two disagreement are ones that can’t accept. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Could have been a great winter but having less than 2” and one plowable event during peak snow climo after Jan 25th through what looks like at least the first half February really downgrades this winter. 
 

the cold and mostly snow cover from Dec 15-Feb 15 was pretty cool though.

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s a storm threat this coming weekend into early week. A day or two near 40. Sounds like torch 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a storm threat this coming weekend into early week. A day or two near 40. Sounds like torch 

“Torch” 40s-50s is feb 16-21 buttercup try and stay with us 

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah there appears to be a step up over the next 10-14 days and climo is starting to climb too. There’s a good chance we don’t see colder than this the rest of the season…especially WNE. Climo is approaching 40° at the big SNE sites it won’t have to be much AN to pop some 40s. But don’t bite me…winter isn’t leaving yet. 

Good!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a storm threat this coming weekend into early week. A day or two near 40. Sounds like torch 

Threat may be pushing it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

“Torch” 40s-50s is feb 16-21 buttercup try and stay with us 

There is no 50’s. Not the set up or pattern for it with deep pack east of Mississippi , Frozen Great Lakes, cold SST’s and leftover blocking. Mild up sure.. no days of 50’s 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, VivaManchVegas said:

Better roll out the hose for the back up sump pump.  Its a price worth paying for a step closer to spring. 

Yesterday was pictured below. Now I wait at RSW for the cold plunge back into NH.

Oh man we wish we were at RSW or APF right now…sipping a margarita on the beach in Boca Grande. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Of course we trend warmer.  The question now becomes, can we get a stemwinder or two?

[metagraphica]

24 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There will be a few days in the 50s between feb 16-21 lock it in.  

Yes please!!

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no 50’s. Not the set up or pattern for it with deep pack east of Mississippi , Frozen Great Lakes, cold SST’s and leftover blocking. Mild up sure.. no days of 50’s 

I had over a foot OTG in Feb 2018 and we ripped 70s right over it. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dendrite said:

I had over a foot OTG in Feb 2018 and we ripped 70s right over it. 

Pushed 80 here. Then it snowed 24 hrs later, and snapped back the other way. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Could have been a great winter but having less than 2” and one plowable event during peak snow climo after Jan 25th through what looks like at least the first half February really downgrades this winter. 
 

the cold and mostly snow cover from Dec 15-Feb 15 was pretty cool though.

I’m impressed with the winter to date…sure even more snow could have happened up to this point. But overall it’s a high B+ for me to date. If we pick up more snow later in feb, and into first half of March, it’ll go to a solid “A” for me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I had over a foot OTG in Feb 2018 and we ripped 70s right over it. 

Well that setup was nothing like what’s modeled on the ensembles. The entire continent was  furnaced then . Not saying a few mild up days in the 40’s aren’t possible . Just not 50’s and 60’s

[Typhoon Tip]

There is a vague signal on the 15th/16th ...  as that implies, not super coherent.   

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

For those saying it likely won’t be this cold again… congrats. Coldest temps in years usually don’t occur multiple times, especially heading towards the back half of winter. Meteorologically, that is like saying after a tropical storm that we likely won’t see another one that year. Not that hard to say. As for those saying that is the end of winter and we go to spring now, we aren’t even at President’s Day! We moderate, but it stays fairly close to normal except for a few days above. It will feel like spring given where we have been, but I think March could be a great season for the Vermont ski areas this year. After all, March is Killington’s biggest snowfall month. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a vague signal on the 15th/16th ...  as that implies, not super coherent.   

 

 

 

Yep. Vague.