Is we back? February discussion thread

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

1967 redux (Northern ORH county had 2 snow events that May including one on the Friday/Saturday of memorial day weekend)

I remember the summer of 67 aka the summer of love being cool which was 180 from the inferno of 66.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Generally the first few hours you log on are some sort of complaining and being upset about the pattern.  Not always , but more often than not. And then Ray logs on when he gets to work and starts talking about  his winter forecast and that takes your mind off of things 

Haven’t had any issues with the pattern we had. 

[met_fan]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

if someone makes up a story about you having blown Donald Trump, and one about you having gotten a speeding ticket...which will be met with less skepticism?

Depends on which poster you're talking about

edit...looks like I was beaten to the punch on that one

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Also have to remember peak climo too…if it pans out, with a good track, it’ll easily be snow just away from the coast with a storm of that magnitude.  And SST are frigid so that will help(the shore/and everybody) as well. 

When you going back to the county? Trails are mint, Not much sled traffic, 81, 85, 90 73 B

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Haven’t had any issues with the pattern we had. 

Ummm I’ll assume you’re drunk. Check the last 4 months up until the big un 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ummm I’ll assume you’re drunk. Check the last 4 months up until the big un 

I’m talking about last few weeks. Before that sucked.

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI wants nothing with 2/14 but likes the 11th.

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see that . This is very similar tin the NYE event 

We will see... not a big deal one way or the other...  feel free to respond if I'm wrong!  Lol..

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, unremarkable.

yep... actually the OES potential looks pretty crappy...

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can always adjust up 

What, the IPAs? As to Saturday, I don't see that as more than a dusting to an inch maybe two

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

yep... actually the OES potential looks pretty crappy...

Yeah it’s just mostly where the trough sets up. Although some areas may see c-1” Friday on the coast 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI wants nothing with 2/14 but likes the 11th.

"Likes" is a strong word...looks pretty irrelevant. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I remember the summer of 67 aka the summer of love being cool which was 180 from the inferno of 66.

I believe 1967 is the coldest spring on record for a lot of stations in New England. Just ridiculous cold from March through May that year. 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Likes" is a strong word...looks pretty irrelevant. 

Well if its right it’s all we got.

[alex]

Accumulating light snow again tonight. Felt like skiing on silk today, love this fluff

[Snowedin]

5 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

So weird.  It was a decent snowfall, but not the meatiest stuff.  And there has been over a week to clear it.  I wonder why it has been so problmatic

The problem is there has been so little melting taking place these last couple weeks and any ice that’s formed just keeps building on the roof. I’ve been outside almost everyday since Friday trying to get it under control. It F’ing sucks in this cold.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if its right it’s all we got.

It’s all we need?

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

When you going back to the county? Trails are mint, Not much sled traffic, 81, 85, 90 73 B

The 14th we plan to leave….unless there’s a monster storm here that morning. There was a signal for one, but it’s still clown range. So assuming that is a nothing burger, then we leave Saturday the 14th.  It was gorgeous when I was there 10 days ago…couldn’t be any better. Sounds like that’s how it is for you . 

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The 14th we plan to leave….unless there’s a monster storm here that morning. There was a signal for one, but it’s still clown range. So assuming that is a nothing burger, then we leave Saturday the 14th.  It was gorgeous when I was there 10 days ago…couldn’t be any better. Sounds like that’s how it is for you . 

It is 160 today , We’re heading to Dickey in the morning, Should be fast 220 miles or so?

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It’s all we need?

 No we need more 

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if its right it’s all we got.

The lack of AI support for the Feb 14 period is concerning... I had zeroed in on that period, but can't feel very confident unless a favorable AI trend comes on board soon?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The lack of AI support for the Feb 14 period is concerning... I had zeroed in on that period, but can't feel very confident unless a favorable AI trend comes on board soon?

There is some AI ensemble agreement for the 14th. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It is 160 today , We’re heading to Dickey in the morning, Should be fast 220 miles or so?

That’s a good ride…great scenery.  Where are you staying? Two Rivers lunch in Alagash for lunch…

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The lack of AI support for the Feb 14 period is concerning... I had zeroed in on that period, but can't feel very confident unless a favorable AI trend comes on board soon?

Yea, I need more....still considered pipe dream for me.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I need more....still considered pipe dream for me.

Yup…it’s clown range and vague still. Might just be a mirage. Give it a couple more days to see if signal gets any stronger/more coherent. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It’s probably outside of AI range too
 

I’m sensing you guys are putting way too much weight in those tools and you don’t even know how they’re actually run. Yeah they might’ve done a couple of events, but the sample size is too small.

My advice pump the brakes at day, 11 or 10 or whatever it is

[FXWX]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is some AI ensemble agreement for the 14th. 

I know, but not as bullish as was hoping... Certainly not dismissing the potential but hoping for more substantial trends...

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s probably outside of AI range too
 

I’m sensing you guys are putting way too much weight in those tools and you don’t even know how they’re actually run. Yeah they might’ve done a couple of events, but the sample size is too small.

My advice pump the brakes at day, 11 or 10 or whatever it is

I'm putting more weight in the day 10-11 range than I am AI guidance.

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s probably outside of AI range too
 

I’m sensing you guys are putting way too much weight in those tools and you don’t even know how they’re actually run. Yeah they might’ve done a couple of events, but the sample size is too small.

My advice pump the brakes at day, 11 or 10 or whatever it is

I don't disagree in general... I'm pretty clueless as to these products are actually constructed, and yes the sample size is very small.  But I've seen enough positive trends this cold season to use them for significant trends in the 7 to 10 day period.  I may never really understand how the AI products are generated, but think they have shown value... That does not mean take them verbatim, but they should be used to for trends and support... 

[FXWX]

Just now, FXWX said:

I don't disagree in general... I'm pretty clueless as to these products are actually constructed, and yes the sample size is very small.  But I've seen enough positive trends this cold season to use them for significant trends in the 7 to 10 day period.  I may never really understand how the AI products are generated, but think they have shown value... That does not mean take them verbatim, but they should be used to for trends and support... 

Also, like all model guidance, we can all feel different about the value of a particular model and/or product.  Be it the lowly Nam or the Euro... We all, or at least I do, have our own favorites and routines...