The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Nomz]

Bleh I lied. Struggling to get negative at h78

[stormtracker]

Yeah, ICON is far worse than 18z

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Bleh I lied. Struggling to get negative at h78

Not even sure how you saw a bomb when it was clearly east of 18z.

[stormtracker]

RGEM western lobe is a bit further west so far

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, not sure why we're analyzing a weather model here.   

Let's delve into the potential new flavors of Coca Cola.

You got the jokes lol. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’ll give you 5 bucks if the euro looks like that.

Buy me a drink at the next HH. If it trends worse from 18z first rounds on me 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not even sure how you saw a bomb when it was clearly east of 18z.

Nothing about that run looked like it was going to work. Progressive as F lol

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

RGEM western lobe is a bit further west so far

even more west than the 18z?

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, not sure why we're analyzing a weather model here.   

Let's delve into the potential new flavors of Coca Cola.

Is one of them the return of 'new'?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

even more west than the 18z?

Yes, but nothing crazy

[overcautionisbad]

ICON has spoken gg

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, wxdude64 said:

Is one of them the return of 'new'?

God, I hope not

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Buy me a drink at the next HH. If it trends worse from 18z first rounds on me 

Deal, I want to buy the first two if that’s the case 

[stormtracker]

RGEM now is noticeable further west

[jayyy]

ICON has spoken gg

The icon has never once, in its entire existence, spoken.

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

ICON has spoken gg

Weren't you just talking to a robot asking it to share secrets about the Weathernext's 18z run?

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM now is noticeable further west

I just looked at it and compared to the 18z gfs. Looks like we would want heights to rise a good bit more in the northeast. 0z RGEM pretty dang flat but yes it does look better in the Midwest. 

[Nomz]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not even sure how you saw a bomb when it was clearly east of 18z.

I was more looking at the western extent of the northern vort. Looked a little bit closer to negative too imo. (Icon left gfs right)

[Ephesians2]

So at 72h... the RGEM looks even further west with the NS energy than even the GFS/NAM

EDIT: it is flatter in front though

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

So at 72h... the RGEM looks even further west with the NS energy than even the GFS/NAM

Should give it move time to round the base and try to get negative for us. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

I just looked at it and compared to the 18z gfs. Looks like we would want heights to rise a good bit more in the northeast. 0z RGEM pretty dang flat but yes it does look better in the Midwest. 

Yeah, I'm waiting to see what it does when it forms the closed low

[Weather Will]

OZ ICON does bring snow to eastern NC.  18Z did not.

[bncho]

Whatever the RGEM shows will be shown on the CMC.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I was more looking at the western extent of the northern vort. Looked a little more progressive too imo. (Icon left gfs right)

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Weren't you just talking to a robot asking it to share secrets about the Weathernext's 18z run?

I admit I asked it myself but it literally was for a laugh lol. Back to regular scheduled programming. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said:

So at 72h... the RGEM looks even further west with the NS energy than even the GFS/NAM

Ya don't say? 

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I just looked at it and compared to the 18z gfs. Looks like we would want heights to rise a good bit more in the northeast. 0z RGEM pretty dang flat but yes it does look better in the Midwest. 

Some of this seems to be timing also? RGEM looks to be a few hours slower with the entire sequence of events than it was for 18z. 

[overcautionisbad]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Weren't you just talking to a robot asking it to share secrets about the Weathernext's 18z run?

I tend to joke a lot to relieve tension. Haha

[stormtracker]

RGEM is positive step vs 18z, but NAM is better.   I call it a win tho

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Some of this seems to be timing also? RGEM looks to be a few hours slower with the entire sequence of events than it was for 18z. 

yea its slower.may not be more west