The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[bncho]

'Twas nice while it lasted. See you in the February LR thread! 

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO AI

Can you rent out the Hatteras Lighthouse to chase?

[Ji]

Seems like it's going to be a little worse than 18z.   Time to wrap this baby up

Pull the plug and turn off the lights

We wasted another 100 hours for partly cloudy skies

Miserable hobby

[LeesburgWx]

And to think we were so close to being back in this until the FOLKS heard around the world was rescinded shortly after

[Ji]

[Buffalo Transplant]

[Weather Will]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pull the plug and turn off the lights

We wasted another 100 hours for partly cloudy skies

Miserable hobby

Latest WB 0Z EURO AI 15 day accum.. time to take a vacation 

[Ji]

Latest WB 0Z EURO AI; time to take a vacation 

Cape asked you to stop posting those. Show some respect to the king

[stormtracker]

Night yall.  I'm unpinning this shit

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Cape asked you to stop posting those. Show some respect to the king

Just trying to annoy you.; back to sleep 

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Only thing worth kinda rooting for here for most of us is Boston getting screwed. Don’t have anything against the southern or eastern parts of our area or the Carolinas.

Meh, I always enjoy when Richmond gets screwed. With apologies to any lovely Richmond posters I'm sure are out there, it just seems like every interaction I have with someone from there on these boards is characterized by a vocally aggressive chip on their shoulder and a kind of pushy reverse arrogance where they sneer at the rest of the forum. 

Much like Boston baseball fans, who collectively went from lovable and knowledgeable lovers of the game to Patriots-style d-bags after the Bosox won a couple titles.

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Meh, I always enjoy when Richmond gets screwed. With apologies to any lovely Richmond posters I'm sure are out there, it just seems like every interaction I have with someone from there on these boards is characterized by a vocally aggressive chip on their shoulder and a kind of pushy reverse arrogance where they sneer at the rest of the forum. 

Much like Boston baseball fans, who collectively went from lovable and knowledgeable lovers of the game to Patriots-style d-bags after the Bosox won a couple titles.

Same way your northern neighbors feel about you? Silly crap lol-I want everyone to have snow. Just about at climo down here in Moseley, Va (Midlo area) with snowfall for the season. I'm sure DC folks will get there too

[Nomz]

7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Meh, I always enjoy when Richmond gets screwed. With apologies to any lovely Richmond posters I'm sure are out there, it just seems like every interaction I have with someone from there on these boards is characterized by a vocally aggressive chip on their shoulder and a kind of pushy reverse arrogance where they sneer at the rest of the forum. 

Much like Boston baseball fans, who collectively went from lovable and knowledgeable lovers of the game to Patriots-style d-bags after the Bosox won a couple titles.

Enjoy the rebuild!

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Same way your northern neighbors feel about you? Silly crap lol-I want everyone to have snow. Just about at climo down here in Moseley, Va (Midlo area) with snowfall for the season. I'm sure DC folks will get there too

Maybe! I haven't heard either way. I don't go into the PA forum and talk a lot of smack or accuse them of things when they get snow and we don't, so that might have something to do with it. 

Like I alluded to, I'm sure the vast majority of Richmond posters are delightful and it's just the vocal ones disproportionately represented, but unfortunately that's been my experience. Haven't had that with literally any other region/location, north, south, or otherwise.

[TowsonWeather]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Enjoy the rebuild!

As a lifelong O's fan, this makes no sense whatsoever since we look loaded this year, but sure?

[overcautionisbad]

17 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Meh, I always enjoy when Richmond gets screwed. With apologies to any lovely Richmond posters I'm sure are out there, it just seems like every interaction I have with someone from there on these boards is characterized by a vocally aggressive chip on their shoulder and a kind of pushy reverse arrogance where they sneer at the rest of the forum. 

Much like Boston baseball fans, who collectively went from lovable and knowledgeable lovers of the game to Patriots-style d-bags after the Bosox won a couple titles.

Well I will gladly take none just so your ass gets none

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

As a lifelong O's fan, this makes no sense whatsoever since we look loaded this year, but sure?

• Rutschman is remaining a pumpkin
• Westburg is overrated
• Beavers and holliday have no tools
• Alonso regression + horribly aging + no fielding
• Cowser is playing in japan next year
• Basallo Ks too much
• Ward can pop a HR once and a while but thats it
• Trevor Rogers due for BABIP regression
• Kyle Bradish has had one (1) healthy season
• Baz and Eflin are Rays name brand merchants
• Dean Kremer is Israel's greatest soldier
• Bullpen is Ryan Helsley and a bunch of slapdicks

[snowcane33]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

• Rutschman is remaining a pumpkin
• Westburg is overrated
• Beavers and holliday have no tools
• Alonso regression + horribly aging + no fielding
• Cowser is playing in japan next year
• Basallo Ks too much
• Ward can pop a HR once and a while but thats it
• Trevor Rogers due for BABIP regression
• Kyle Bradish has had one (1) healthy season
• Baz and Eflin are Rays name brand merchants
• Dean Kremer is Israel's greatest soldier
• Bullpen is Ryan Helsley and a bunch of slapdicks

Awesome, it seems too me that you think they will win it all this year.

Go O's!!!!

Hopefully things will change today with these models to at least give the eastern shore some love today.

Let's go fern!!!

[Roger Smith]

I was reading about the Washington and Jefferson snowstorm of Jan 28, 1772, apparently both of those esteemed gents were weather watchers and measured 30 inches of snow at both of their locations. 

There were some gnarly winters around the Revolutionary War period, Jan 1780 was extremely cold and the Hudson River froze over solid. A reading of -16 F was taken somewhere near New York City. 

That image earlier in the thread reminded me of these factoids. Other winters of the early years that were very harsh were 1805 and 1821. They had dud winters in those times too, a weather journal from Rhode Island shows that winter 1833-34 was very mild and almost without snow. Winters of the 1850s were very cold and snowy but the 1840s were much more variable. In this era of human-modified climate some may forget that there are large natural variations in the mix as well. 

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Before Euro shatters our dreams.. DT 1st call map. Was made before 0z suite (which makes me assume he wasn't weighing the GFS then because it had its worst run at 18z)

This guy is horrid 

[Wxdavis5784]

3 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

This guy is horrid 

I feel like he used to be much better. Now all he does is just regurgitate whatever the euro says. 

[DDweatherman]

54 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

I feel like he used to be much better. Now all he does is just regurgitate whatever the euro says. 

Absolutely does, except his map this time isn’t even the euro lol. Wish he was right…but he’s not

[Benjamn3]

Used to really enjoy DT’s forecasts and comments back in the Eastern days. Always found him to be a pompous asshole lol. That still remains. 

[stormy]

12 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

LOL - you continue to have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good. 

It was neither "wrong about the predominant precipitation type" nor was it "wrong about the total qpf." It was actually, all things considered, one of the best performing models with last weekend's system. That doesn't mean it's always right or perfect - no model is - but the criteria you are using to claim a poor performance is simply absurd. Did it get every detail correct? Most assuredly not. But it was "more right" and for longer, with less wavering, than basically any other model I can think of. The only way it performed poorly is if you look at it through the lens of someone looking at Kuchera snow maps and amateur snow weenie eyes and say "Y d1Dnt i GeT mY l6 incherz1?!!?"

Like the other globals, it was a little slow on the changeover because mid-level thermals aren't really the wheelhouse of those models. But if you could have only picked one model leasing up to the last storm (which, to be clear, you shouldn't do) the Euro was clearly the best. 

Good Morning.    I just wish to start the day by clearing up some misunderstandings. The first sentence alleges that I "have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good"     Nothing could be farther from the truth.     I believe that the Euro is an important contributor,  but not a king.  If a person believes that a model is king, they may be too quick to discount another, especially if it disappoints.  Verification scores place the Euro slightly ahead of the GFS.  As I said last night, often, a forecast formulation for success would be something close to 60% Euro and 40% GFS.

I read the AFD's from Sterling and Blacksburg almost daily and have been for years.  The NWS forecasters often refer to both GFS and ECMWF.  They sometimes lean toward one and sometimes the other.

Back to the here and now, my significant accumulation forecast has evaporated. The only sources still more than an inch are the EPS at 1.4" and the GEFS at 1.9"................. That would be a nice dust up to this iceberg that I am locked into.  

[TowsonWeather]

7 hours ago, Nomz said:

• Rutschman is remaining a pumpkin
• Westburg is overrated
• Beavers and holliday have no tools
• Alonso regression + horribly aging + no fielding
• Cowser is playing in japan next year
• Basallo Ks too much
• Ward can pop a HR once and a while but thats it
• Trevor Rogers due for BABIP regression
• Kyle Bradish has had one (1) healthy season
• Baz and Eflin are Rays name brand merchants
• Dean Kremer is Israel's greatest soldier
• Bullpen is Ryan Helsley and a bunch of slapdicks

I’d love to conduct a similarly obsessed breakdown of the Sox roster, but unfortunately I just don’t care enough about them to do so. 

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

Good Morning.    I just wish to start the day by clearing up some misunderstandings. The first sentence alleges that I "have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good"     Nothing could be farther from the truth.     I believe that the Euro is an important contributor,  but not a king.  If a person believes that a model is king, they may be too quick to discount another, especially if it disappoints.  Verification scores place the Euro slightly ahead of the GFS.  As I said last night, often, a forecast formulation for success would be something close to 60% Euro and 40% GFS.

I read the AFD's from Sterling and Blacksburg almost daily and have been for years.  The NWS forecasters often refer to both GFS and ECMWF.  They sometimes lean toward one and sometimes the other.

Back to the here and now, my significant accumulation forecast has evaporated. The only sources still more than an inch are the EPS at 1.4" and the GEFS at 1.9"................. That would be a nice dust up to this iceberg that I am locked into.  

Ensembles shouldn’t be given any weight at all under 48 hrs.

We aren’t getting anything significant in Augusta County.  We are still cooked.

The Euro was the best model on the last storm for the track and overall development.  The NAM and the GFS had the precipitation types better for our backyards.  Forecasters often talk about a Euro/NAM combo being the best, although they still mention the GFS at times.  The Euro kicks ass at verification scores.  It doesn’t beat the GFS by a little bit.  The GFS isn’t even in second place!  

The Euro is still the king.  All we mean by that is that it is right the most and wavers the least.  We know it is not literally a king and we know it is not always right.

 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said:

Used to really enjoy DT’s forecasts and comments back in the Eastern days. Always found him to be a pompous asshole lol. That still remains. 

Can't stand him. I've met him in person. WEnt to a baseball game with him. Went to breakfast with him.  Im sure Randy could write a book on him but leaves the past in the past.

Anyway, everyone here at work still thinks we are getting this storm. The facebook hype machine is real. Just talked to my boss "OMG and another storm this weekend!" I just nodded my head. Eh.......