February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why are some other METS saying the -PNA/AO pattern is not favorable ? You have proof that it is. Maybe someone should point this out to Lee Goldberg - Steve D. and DT

In most cases, December 1 to mid-February, it isn't. But when wave lengths shorten, it becomes more favorable and the snowstorm stats speak for themselves. Two thirds of snowstorms with 10" or more snow in Boston, New York City, and/or Philadelphia during the second half of February occurred with a PNA-.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone know central parks high and low today?

[SACRUS]

Today's split

EWR: 48 / 34 (+5)
NYC 47 / 35 (+5)

[SACRUS]

 

Warmest daily dep from avg since Jan 22nd.

[jm1220]

Down to 33.

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

33.6 and dropping whore frost tonight. 

 

I think unless that's differentfrom freezing fog hmm now idr

I think you mean hoar frost. Unless somehow it is a sex worker .

[wthrmn654]

35 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I think you mean hoar frost. Unless somehow it is a sex worker .

Sounds funnier though

[wthrmn654]

32.3

[wthrmn654]

31.7

 

This cold is resilient this winter jeez

[Prue11]

27.5 my cold micro climate continues this winter. Lots of 26-29 degree temps being read in my area 

[Prue11]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

For the first time in a LONG time I've got water trickling through my gutter downspouts!  Nice sound I have to say.  Gutters and downspouts have been solid ice for about a month now.  Several houses in the neighborhood have had gutter ice dams cause indoor water damage.  Lots of green Servpro vans in the area doing cleanup.

My whole gutter on the front side of the house is a brick of ice. Luckily no leaks 

[psv88]

42/26 split today at home.

79/64 down here in Deerfield Beach, FL

[NorthShoreWx]

42/23 today in Smithtown.

29 now

[wthrmn654]

31.7 

[EastonSN+]

Really hoping to get this to 7 in enough time (considering lag) to give us one more window. CPK can easily snow through mid March (my area until late March). Need to be installed 7 by the first IMO.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

42/26 split today at home.

79/64 down here in Deerfield Beach, FL

You picked a great week to go down there since you missed the rare Arctic outbreak earlier in the month. 
 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxdEmS9gM1M

 

 

[wthrmn654]

Idk if it was posted here or on Facebook but the snow depth forecast i think from euro was way off.. showed long island having no snow cover left by o think yesterday. Meanwhile I still have over 4 or 5 inches on ground

[Dark Star]

Mizzle at 36 degrees in Garwood, NJ.

[Monty]

On 2/17/2026 at 12:43 AM, weatherpruf said:

the effects are noticeable in all agencies and have been written about extensively in respected publications, at least the ones not owned by murdoch or bezos.....a professional has listed his reasons and you have answered with an anecdote from a poster here. 

I would still like to see these publications if you have them.

[wthrmn654]

High if 36, down to 34 right now,  the not hitting 40°F stretch continues worn 4 or 5 inches of solid snow cover still evident... going on nearly 30 days of not hitting 40 since jan 22nd.. 

 

Central Park had snow depth of over an inch end yesterday at 23 days,  tired at 21st longest with longest ever being 56 days back  2/17/48

[lee59]

Lee Goldberg said there is only a trace of snow left in Central Park. The picture I saw looked like more than that. I still have about 3-4 inches.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg said there is only a trace of snow left in Central Park. The picture I saw looked like more than that. I still have about 3-4 inches.

I was just in Central Park and if there's a trace of snow that doesn't make sense it would be rain and it's not falling lol. Also there's a good two to 3 inches of slush at the park. By the way do you guys know the Central Park spread for the day?

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg said there is only a trace of snow left in Central Park. The picture I saw looked like more than that. I still have about 3-4 inches.

The offical observation says a trace at 7 am yesterday. Per nws

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Lee Goldberg said there is only a trace of snow left in Central Park. The picture I saw looked like more than that. I still have about 3-4 inches.

A few inches here in Brooklyn

[SACRUS]

 

42 today snowpack took a shellacking but still holding on.  The next 3 days may do it in but there is hope to replenish it later sunday and into and through monday.

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

EWR: 43 / 34 (+3)
NYC: 41 / 37 (+3)

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)
JFK: 67 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
JFK: 2 (1979)

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1959: Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five-day storm, which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum) (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac)

1960: On this date through the 20th, a huge snowstorm struck the northeast from Maryland to New England with up to 36 inches of snow through the 20th resulting in millions of dollars in damage. At least 26 people lost their lives. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1966: The temperature dropped to -49° at Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada, the city's all-time lowest recorded temperature. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: The "George Washington Day Snowstorm" occurred across the northeast. Blizzard conditions developed in Pennsylvania on the 19th forcing I-80 to close. Towanda, PA picked up 30 inches of snow. Winds up to 50 mph created snowdrifts up to 20 feet in some parts of north-central Pennsylvania. Thousands of motorists were stranded. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1976
The maximum temperature today was 76 °F in Washington, DC.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1979: The temperature at New York plunged to -52 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The President's Day snowstorm- A small, but intense low pressure system "exploded" near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and moved slowly up the coast. Snow began to fall in the District during the afternoon of February 18th. On the morning of February 19th Washingtonians awoke to the biggest snowfall since the Knickerbockers snowstorm of 1922. National Airport received 18.7 inches of snow, while up to 26 inches of snow buried the eastern suburbs. With 6 inches of snow on the ground before the storm, the snow-covered in Washington area ranged from 24 to 30 inches on the ground. Forecasters believed the storm would move south of Washington and out to sea only grazing the area with a light snow of 1 to 3 inches. As snow piled up across the Washington area snow forecast were updated frequently to catch up with the rapid increase in accumulation. National Airport received 18.7 inches of snow and Dulles Airport received 16.3 inches of snow. . (p. 81-86 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Ref. (NWS Ranking for Storms between 1956 and 2011) This is the 22nd Worst Snowstorm

1981: The maximum temperature today was 76 °F in Washington, DC. (Bob Ryan's 2002 Almanac)

1984: A major storm system dumped heavy snow in the Midwest with the heaviest amounts in Nebraska. 24 inches was recorded at Verdigre and 22 inches fell at Norfolk. 24-hour snowfall records were set at Norfolk and Grand Island. Winds up to 40 mph resulted in considerable blowing and drifting of the snow and many roads in northeastern Nebraska were made impassable. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 


2003: Feb. 14th-18th: A complex storm system produced copious amounts of snow and sleet across the region. Nicknamed the President’s Weekend Snowstorm of 2003, it ranked in the top 5 of all-time regional snowstorms. The storm took a heavy toll on residents, structures, transportation systems, emergency responders, businesses, livestock, and travelers. Roads were covered by deep snow and sleet and were nearly impassible. Emergency personnel and those needing emergency transport had to be taken to their destinations in 4 wheel drives or military vehicles (see article “Loudoun and Fauquier Counties’ Finest Assist the National Weather Service during Snowstorm”). Heavy accumulations weighed down on buildings and several structural collapses occurred.
(Nat. Weather Service)

[jm1220]

A lot of patchy coverage on lawns especially that get sun during the day. Upper 30s and fog is where you start really doing a number on the snowpack. 

[donsutherland1]

Some drizzle and rain showers are likely into early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow.

Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

The guidance has backed off on the potential for a significant or major snowstorm in the February 22-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members would be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in a significant or major snowstorm. For now, a significant or major snowstorm remains a low probability but high-impact scenario.

An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +9.56 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (4.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°, but the forecast development of an AO+ regime could lead to a sufficiently mild outcome to result in a winter mean temperature that exceeds freezing. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[wthrmn654]

Looks almost as good when we got it bank in January lol