MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs ! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs ! Now it's starting to get interesting. The north trend is catching on with the big guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just got home - holy crap, GFS! And the ICON and 3km NAM were decent too. I'll still take 1-3", but the GFS and AIFS make me want more, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 AIGFS trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Models are clearly jumping on the more phased trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Cmc is a miss but much further north than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Maybe maybe maybe. Ugggh if this ends up a bare bones scrape or close miss. Such a fragile setup but you'd think at this point the models are starting to have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is a miss but much further north than 12z It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss/scraper, calling it now EDIT: not just no support, ZERO GEFS support 1 1 2 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss/scraper, calling it now EDIT: not just no support, ZERO GEFS support Another bust in the making ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What is happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another bust in the making ? When you gave up on the storm I thought it was done, but last second trends have happened before. Was hoping for better from the CMC. We need bigger shifts at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, mattinpa said: When you gave up on the storm I thought it was done, but last second trends have happened before. Was hoping for better from the CMC. We need bigger shifts at this point. I agree, we need pronounced shifts in all the major guidance at this point toward a phase. We're 48 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 19 minutes ago, hooralph said: What is happening Snowman19 is using his limited posts to flood Anthony's zone with alternative facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 UK with significant improvement in snowfall at 0Z, like most models so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Steve DiMartino is getting dragged through the wringer in wxTwitter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 41 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss/scraper, calling it now EDIT: not just no support, ZERO GEFS support Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too. A miss/scrape is a bad call right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 43 minutes ago, hooralph said: What is happening WeatherGeek came back and now we're getting a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick. It's supposed to be at night. An too warm to stick? Have you not been outside lately an seen the 8" of glacier everywhere lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 28 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too. A miss/scrape is a bad call right now. this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, TriPol said: IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick. Wrong. If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: IF this comes back north, and that's a big if, it's going to be too warm for anything to stick. Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 AI euro improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this looks like a Central/South Jersey Special from Union County/Somerset etc. and points south of I-78 Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MJO812 said: Its February. Whats up with this too warm to stick nonsense? plus consider the several inches thick Ice Glacier still cemented to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ. lets first get the precip this far north than worry about precip types IMO more amped means more dynamics and upward motion in the atmosphere creating its own cold enough air (dynamic cooling) thats why it shows so much snow further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI euro improved Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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