February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Brian5671]

Could be a hot summer nationwide with such dry soils everywhere

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler weather has returned to the region. Temperatures will mainly top out in the middle to upper 30s tomorrow. The weekend will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It could become even milder with highs in the lower to perhaps middle 40s next week.

Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.93 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[SACRUS]

Today's split

 

EWR: 37 / 30 (-0)
NYC: 36 / 29 (-2)
 

[MJO812]

A little dusting coming Saturday morning 

[TriPol]

17 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I am back guys and i made a thread for Presidents' day storm potential

 

 

Of course you did.

[bluewave]

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing.

So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986.

But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast.

It will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Definitely a more traditional Nina-like pattern coming up for the rest of February. But it’s really interesting that we see a piece of the cooler Northeast relative to other areas which has been in place since November continuing.

So more of a close to average temperature pattern here with the warmest temperatures missing our area. Longer term the models are forecasting a transition to El Nino. Nina to Nino summer transitions typically haven’t been very warm here like we saw during years like 2023, 2009, 1997 and 1986.

But the last strong drought La Nina to El Nino in 2002 was very warm. That year was a much warmer winter than we just had. So we can see competing influences this year with extreme drought across much of the CONUS and a lingering cold pool near the Northeast.

So it will be interesting to see if the Northeast can hold onto the local cooler readings relative to other areas. Or the drought feedback ridge to our west eventually builds into the Northeast with the heat.

 

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

Feels like we haven't had a Spring with nice long lasting ridging in quite some time! 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Really hoping we can get some ridging here into the spring. Last thing I want is endless gunk on easterly winds. It just makes it miserable and doesn’t help the drought. 

This has been our coolest November to mid-February in over a decade.

But since the Northern stream and Western ridge was so dominant, we couldn’t achieve the snowfall totals of 1996, 2014, 1994, 2003, and 2011.

Some lingering influence from the longer term lower snowfall pattern since 2018-2019 even though this winter was much colder.

But I am very happy we got our big benchmark snowstorm which brought many close to the long term 25 to 30 average with the more active STJ for a week in late January.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest 11-1 to 2-12 periods since 1991
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1996-02-12	33.7	0
2	2014-02-12	35.1	0
3	1994-02-12	35.3	0
4	2026-02-12	35.4	0
-	2003-02-12	35.4	0
5	2011-02-12	35.8	0
6	2001-02-12	35.9	0
7	2015-02-12	36.1	0
8	2004-02-12	36.2	0
9	2009-02-12	36.8	0
10	2018-02-12	36.9	0

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

So 8 days to get from 3 to 6. Can we get to 8 by the 8th of March for one last snow window?

 

[donsutherland1]

The big weather story for the New York City area this weekend through the middle of next week will be the combination of a February thaw and relatively quiet weather. A weak system will likely pass to the south Sunday night and Monday perhaps bringing some light precipitation for a time, mainly to the south of New York City. Temperatures during any precipitation will likely be mainly near or above freezing. The thaw could crest on Tuesday with the high reaching the upper 40s and possibly 50° in Central Park. Beyond the five-day period, some showers or periods of rain could be possible on Wednesday or Thursday with the temperature remaining above freezing for the duration of the event. 

The five-day figures from the NBM:

For context, the forecast averages are somewhat more range-bound and somewhat milder than the values for the overall 1991-2020 climate reference period. Exceptional warmth remains unlikely.

Despite the upcoming thaw, February remains extremely likely to be colder than normal overall. 

[EastonSN+]

Looks like the PNA starting to improve at the end of the run. Likely a bit early as we would be in phase 6 however this should start to take form during the first week of March. This is NOT too late for snowfall for NYC.

[WeatherGeek2025]

cold morning 24 now