February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

October 1976 too.  That was the last time Central Park got down to the 20s in October.

Yes! 52.9 F that October.  Hasn't averaged below that since. Number 10 since records kept. 
Good catch.

@NorthShoreWx

[MJO812]

All the models show some milder weather as we head into February . A nice thaw. Hopefully it doesn't last long .

[donsutherland1]

Some photos of the Hudson River this morning.

Note: I edited out the intrusive light posts from the Henry Hudson Parkway on the photo looking toward the George Washington Bridge.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

All the models show some milder weather as we head into February . A nice thaw. Hopefully it doesn't last long .

Pattern looks to become much more progressive with less amplification and reverting back to more northern stream dominated.  Cold up in Canada is far less frigid and less widespread over western Canada than it was.  Lowest temperature at this hour up in the Yukon Province is -1, most of the NWT is in the single digits above and below zero. Still cold and solid and deep snow cover up stream so we should get some benefit from that from that for a while.  After next weekends cold shot the worst of the worst in terms of cold is likely over for the winter.  I wouldn't bet against below normal precipitation for the first two weeks of February.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pattern looks to become much more progressive with less amplification and reverting back to more northern stream dominated  Cold up in Canada is far less frigid and less widespread over western Canada than it was.  Lowest temperature at this hour up in the Yukon Province is -1, most of the NWT is in the single digits above and below zero. Still cold and solid and deep snow cover up stream so we should get some benefit from that from that for a while.  After next weekends cold shot the worst of the worst in terms of cold is likely over for the winter.  I wouldn't bet against below normal precipitation for the first two weeks of February.

Our chance at getting something major is likely when the cold relaxes. Pattern will be too suppressed until then. It doesn’t prevent us from getting a few inch clipper if we’re lucky. But we risk again when the cold relaxes that we go back to SWFE and cutter. 

[eduggs]

The GEFS, GEPS, EPS, ICON-EPS, EPS, GFSAI, ECMWF-AIFS and EPS-AIFS are all very dry out through 10 days. That has been the theme of this winter apart from last weekend.

[NEG NAO]

[eduggs]

Cold, windy, dry. 

[nycsnow]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GEFS, GEPS, EPS, ICON-EPS, EPS, GFSAI, ECMWF-AIFS and EPS-AIFS are all very dry out through 10 days. That has been the theme of this winter apart from last weekend.

Hopefully something pops up. Really wanna take advantage of this cold

[SACRUS]

 

3 clipper monte

Wed (2/4) :  Perhaps a dusting 
Sat (2/7): Perhaps a coating
Mon - Tue (2/9-10)     GGEM snow
 

[IrishRob17]

This morning’s snow depth

 

[Rjay]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wow miami

I wish this was true 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

All the models show some milder weather as we head into February . A nice thaw. Hopefully it doesn't last long .

Feburary will end up 6-10 degrees below average. 

[TJW014]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

All the models show some milder weather as we head into February . A nice thaw. Hopefully it doesn't last long .

Change "February" to Thanksgiving, then to Christmas, then to January. 

Cold's going nowhere. February may very well be below average too. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Long Island Sound was starting to slush over on Smithtown Bay yesterday.  Any atmospheric physicists want to weigh in on whether that freezing process is keeping things a little warmer along the north shore than they would have been?  On another note: although cold, a lot of days and nights recently have been running above forecast but today is running colder than forecast.  Doesn't look like we'll make it any higher than about 20.

 

[nycsnow]

Close enough to monitor

[MANDA]

The early February sun doing its thing to the lighter fringes of snow cover over GA and SC today.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_SE/loop60v.html

[JustinRP37]

I always say to enjoy the coldest temps of the year around here. Most years now they don't last long and then we will be roasting in humidity and heat for many months. The cold this year has been great. Skiing has been nice, and the sun makes it feel not so bad. It has been impressively sunny. Some love to complain about the weather no matter what it does. There is only bad gear and bad attitudes. Only weather that truly demoralizes me is constant mist/rain between 34-50 that we seem to get for weeks in April now. 

[MarcmmKU]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Our chance at getting something major is likely when the cold relaxes. Pattern will be too suppressed until then. It doesn’t prevent us from getting a few inch clipper if we’re lucky. But we risk again when the cold relaxes that we go back to SWFE and cutter. 

It's becoming increasingly clear that Sunday storm will likely be the thing we all remember the most from this winter.

[Picard]

2 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Another consistent trend on the models specifically euro is dry though the end of their runs. Euro aifs is 0.2 qpf 

Of note is that the drought monitor still shows widespread drought conditions, even after last weekend's storm.  I'd bet money January was below normal in many places despite the storm, and February may end up the same or worse.  All of the relatively minor events in the past or yet to come won't add up enough to reverse long term trends.  

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, Picard said:

Of note is that the drought monitor still shows widespread drought conditions, even after last weekend's storm.  I'd bet money January was below normal in many places despite the storm, and February may end up the same or worse.  All of the relatively minor events in the past or yet to come won't add up enough to reverse long term trends.  

2.76" here for January.  Of that, 1.55" (56%) was from the snow event last weekend.  The rest of the month was nickle and dime stuff.  Unless things change in February and March we're going to be heading into Spring with a pretty large precipitation deficit.  Not a problem now but it could well be by April and May unless we get some solid widespread precipitation over the next 2-3 months.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

20 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

It's becoming increasingly clear that Sunday storm will likely be the thing we all remember the most from this winter.

Of course that was the storm of the winter

[nycsnow]

2 days ago people on twitter were screaming record cold through February…. Today they’re all screaming torch second half of February lol

[JustinRP37]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

2 days ago people on twitter were screaming record cold through February…. Today they’re all screaming torch second half of February lol

It’s one reason why the internet is garbage for weather.  It’s become like a damn spectator sport and hype machine. According to the weather media we should have all been dead from starvation if we didn’t stock up on groceries before the storm. 

[eduggs]

So far at 18z the models are engineering a perfectly dry week with the bowling ball ULL and a follow up shortwave traversing southern ON to NNY perfectly suppressing any storm threats.

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

All the models show some milder weather as we head into February . A nice thaw. Hopefully it doesn't last long .

What thaw?

[nycsnow]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

So far at 18z the models are engineering a perfectly dry week with the bowling ball ULL and a follow up shortwave traversing southern ON to NNY perfectly suppressing any storm threats.

Nice trend on AIGFS over the last day

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What thaw?

considering how cold it has been 35 or 40 degrees a couple of days in a row would be considered a thaw

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nice trend on AIGFS over the last day

 

Yeah it's up to 0.05" now in a few spots. But there has been no improvement in the height field in Ontario for several days. The RRFS dropped off at 18z. I was hoping this could trend into a 2-3" plowable event but it's settling into a C-1". And there's not much behind it. Super-suppressive northwest flow.

[eduggs]

The AI models have been pretty insistent that when precipitation finally returns around day 9, it's rain. I don't buy it yet because guidance has been too quick with warmups this winter. But there sure has been a lot of wasted cold this season.