Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Would like to see a more expansive precip shield to the west. This is more like bdb where you need to be within 50 miles of the coast ( as of now of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Just now, Wannabehippie said: I am not getting excited about something 8 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet. It's less than 6 days away but I get the caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:30 PM Just now, Wannabehippie said: I am not getting excited about something 8 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet. 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Just now, Wannabehippie said: I am not getting excited about something 8 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet. 8 days away? Lol the precip moves in Saturday night. It's 5.5 days away and the storm is about to reach the west Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Would like to see a more expansive precip shield to the west. This is more like bdb where you need to be within 50 miles of the coast ( as of now of course) I wouldntt worry too much about the shield-even last storm you saw it get wetter as we approached. A bombing low to the BM will deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Ukie is a miss 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM So its cmc/euro vs ukie/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Monday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:34 PM CMC shows a true bombogenesis blizzard for our region. at hour 132 it shows an already strong storm of 982 millibar low pressure just northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 24 hours later it drops it to 955 just southeast of Montauk. That's a true blizzard and this is the reason why I got into weather because of the phenomenon called "bombogenesis"! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: So its cmc/euro vs ukie/gfs I haven't seen the ukie, but given how far out we still are, that GFS is close enough that I'd view it as somewhat supportive of what we're looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Not sure about big but its a hit you sure you don't want to rephrase that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: you sure you don't want to rephrase that? Lol at that point it wasn't confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:42 PM 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So its cmc/euro vs ukie/gfs Gfs is close Ensembles love this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted Monday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:44 PM The GFS has intermittently shown a big storm impacting the region for almost a week now. The 21st, 23rd, and 24th model runs looked good... just not the recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted Monday at 04:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:44 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is close Ensembles love this storm GFS ensembles or other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Just now, Northof78 said: GFS ensembles or other? Eps an eps ai both tightly clustered off the Delmarva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Gefs improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Monday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:51 PM 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Lol at that point it wasn't confirmed If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time 1 8 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Monday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:53 PM I've seen weaker hurricanes than this before. 963 is at least Cat 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Monday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:54 PM 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time easy partner 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time please stop - definition of wishcasting. its 5-6 days out; todays runs mean very little - were only at pattern recognition stage right now. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Monday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:55 PM 3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time Can't argue with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Monday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:56 PM 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: please stop - definition of wishcasting. its 5-6 days out; todays runs mean very little - were only at pattern recognition stage right now. euro AI has had every storm right this winter. it's like 5 for 5 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted Monday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:10 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Monday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:18 PM Surprised no Kuchera maps posted yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:20 PM I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Monday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:25 PM 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs improved Heavy westward lean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM 31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: euro AI has had every storm right this winter. it's like 5 for 5 It has a grazer now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track. Ensembles love it. Look at the eps an AI eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Monday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:32 PM 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It has a grazer now not good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted Monday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:32 PM This feels more like a LI/Eastern NE special but last weeks storm I thought would be suppressed to our south so what do I know. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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