Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Every models has this stupid appendage/second low that forms way NE and it just chases right behind it out to sea. lost that dumbbell Fuji look from yesterday that pulled us all in.

Thats what is ruining this setup.  

[Kitz Craver]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooter quit eh. Ĥmmm.

That’s a yuuuuge jump east from the 18z burp yesterday.

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm just surprised the Euro still has warming criteria here. I guess id expect 12z to cave further unless the other models come back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats what is ruining this setup.  

I still think we need to give it at least through today to make sure that is the direction this moves, but it's admittedly looking more like that will be the case. 

[JKEisMan]

I know this is pulling at straws, but the 9z SREFS looking more up and in - maybe leading the charge to some better solutions lol?

[WinterWolf]

Everybody used to laugh at me when I said the off hour runs were BS…now you see it’s true. They suck.   Also as I thought back on Tuesday, that an OTS idea was the bigger worry.  Cape cod could see a decent snow…the rest of us are out of it. 

[CoastalWx]

Winter sucks again 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter sucks again 

I mean, I could work with this verbatim, but can't afford any more regression today.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean, I could work with this verbatim, but can't afford any more regression today.

What run is that? 
it just seems like too much suppression. Maybe I get grazed here, but was hoping for something to help out this winter in another tier.

[JKEisMan]

11 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

I know this is pulling at straws, but the 9z SREFS looking more up and in - maybe leading the charge to some better solutions lol?

In any case, I’m still watching the nam and mesoscales today, screw the globals.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What run is that? 
it just seems like too much suppression. Maybe I get grazed here, but was hoping for something to help out this winter in another tier.

00z...06z was a bit worse, but F5 doesn't have the off hour data.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

00z...06z was a bit worse, but F5 doesn't have the off hour data.

Even 25 miles will help out. I don’t want to hype myself up for disappointment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Torch TigerI'm really not trying to be a weenie, but you have to be careful with convection and multiple lows. Believe me, I don't aim to look like an ass and hedge in the wrong direction, but sometimes it just works out that way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Even 25 miles will help out. I don’t want to hype myself up for disappointment.

I agree the CTRV is probably dead, but we still have some hope.

[EastonSN+]

This storm was aligned with a spike in the AO which we usually want. Even so only gets to -2 which is probably aiding in the suppression.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

You are playing the semantics game, you asked me what my forecast is right now, i told you. Of course theres a chance, theres always a chance even after 12Z tomorrow. Crazier things have happened in very close range. 

I'm always the first one to say that, it’s never 100% done. It's just extremely low right now. For far SE MA id still be interested, but thats about it. That's where i stand

I just still am having trouble seeing how snow doesn’t get west to some degree . Maybe I’m vey wrong , but something tells me the final solution has not yet revealed itself 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just still am having trouble seeing how snow doesn’t get west to some degree . Maybe I’m vey wrong , but something tells me the final solution has no yet revealed itself 

Because it’s on a dead ass NE trajectory off of the Southeast Coast?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Because it’s on a dead ass NE trajectory off of the Southeast Coast?

You’re assuming that’s correct 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Let's see who here believes this comes back 

 

Emoji this comment

 = storm goes west and hits us

crap = hits bahamas with 6-12 inches of snow

[bristolri_wx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just still am having trouble seeing how snow doesn’t get west to some degree . Maybe I’m vey wrong , but something tells me the final solution has no yet revealed itself 

I haven’t seen anything in the last 12 hours that leads me to believe that the forecast is locked in yet. It’s a large complex storm made of moving parts that in some cases haven’t formed yet. The low formation southeast of us is still oscillating to various degrees, which is leading to a wide variety of outcomes, even in the different scenarios that don’t lead to a large snowstorm for us.

Impacts in western New England will be low, unless something dramatically changes. However central and eastern NE could be impacted heavily depending on today’s model output.

Next 3-4 forecast cycles will probably become more consistent, especially as data sampling of the different parts improve. Most can make their decisions before bedtime this evening.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Let's see who here believes this comes back 

 

Emoji this comment

 = storm goes west and hits us

crap = hits bahamas with 6-12 inches of snow

= You finally get 5PPD, which is still too many.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I haven’t seen anything in the last 12 hours that leads me to believe that the forecast is locked in yet. It’s a large complex storm made of moving parts that in some cases haven’t formed yet. The low formation southeast of us is still oscillating to various degrees, which is leading to a wide variety of outcomes, even in the different scenarios that don’t lead to a large snowstorm for us.

Impacts in western New England will be low, unless something dramatically changes. However central and eastern NE could be impacted heavily depending on today’s model output.

Next 3-4 forecast cycles will probably become more consistent, especially as data sampling of the different parts improve. Most can make their decisions before bedtime this evening.

 

If I lived in ENE , I’d be excited for a big storm . Here in central sections just hoping to get some accumulating snow, which is still possible for now anyway 

[Cyclone-68]

This winter has been one big kick in the b*lls despite getting the last storm 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This winter has been one big kick in the b*lls despite getting the last storm 

The last four winters have been like that really minus this last storm. Even the 80s had a few big ones, so I guess the last storm was akin to one of those big ones in the 80s.

[MJO812]

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This winter has been one big kick in the b*lls despite getting the last storm 

Drunk? most are AN snow and way BN temp 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk? most are AN snow and way BN temp 

 

I'm probably a hair above average to date, but if we go 0-for the first week of February, then I'll fall behind again.

[NSwx]

Another foot or more here on top of this pack would really be something special for my neck of the woods. It really is a thing of beauty ! I still say Boston East is going to have a good storm out of this for you guys. 

[SouthCoastMA]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just still am having trouble seeing how snow doesn’t get west to some degree . Maybe I’m vey wrong , but something tells me the final solution has not yet revealed itself 

I agree, to an extent. Most models are still well within margin of error to make a bigger impact. If the Euro has any clue, a couple more get on board at 12z. I think we'll have a better idea by 0z tonight. I think it's a lower probability, obviously. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, NSwx said:

Another foot or more here on top of this pack would really be something special for my neck of the woods. It really is a thing of beauty ! I still say Boston East is going to have a good out of this for you guys. 

Haven't you gotten croaked by some big storms the past few years?