SouthCoastMA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 ECM-AI with small tick SE. Its well outside BM, and moves ENE. Lets get the trajectory on that more northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro AI similar to 06z. Decent precip in eastern areas, fringed/glancing blow back to the CT river. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbweather Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Wxbear25 said: You don’t really want a super-deep low if you want widespread precipitation, because it implies two things 1) it’s likely occluding or close to it 2) the mid and upper-level features are so wrapped up that they basically wrap into itself as opposed to spread out ideally, you want the ULL to still be strengthening and the storm just getting caught as it gets close to your latitude so it stalls and then slowly degrades over you, as opposed to having an already occluded low decaying over you True, my point was more related to the N/W extent of the precip with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Does it usually set up where you have greater difference aloft? Yes. In basic terms, think about what happens when you have diffluence aloft, it implies air is “spreading apart” by direction and potentially speed as well which results in mass divergence. Air then rises to fill that hole creating pressure falls below it, eventually resulting in the development/strengthening of low pressure at the surface again, very laymen’s terms and not quite as in-depth as an atmospheric dynamics class, but it works as an illustrative process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said: Yes. In basic terms, think about what happens when you have diffluence aloft, it implies air is “spreading apart”, either by speed, direction, or both which results in mass divergence. Air then rises to fill that hole creating pressure falls below it, eventually resulting in the development/strengthening of low pressure at the surface again, very laymen’s terms but it works as an illustrative process Thanks. That’s pretty much how I was picturing the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 If the Euro is Doctor No, is the AI Professor No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2015 vibes EOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2015 vibes EOR Not good for us here…but we’ll see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Thanks. That’s pretty much how I was picturing the process. There’s regular synoptic scale diffluence and then you get upper jetstreak dynamics where you get smaller scale divergence in the poleward exit and equatorward entrance region of the jetstreak. A lot of our bigger storms have 2 jetstreaks with their regions of divergence coupled together. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: IDK not everything is trending se: You’re right the GFS has been on board with it, buts it pretty much on an island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Cod Fish Crusher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: There’s regular synoptic scale diffluence and then you get upper jetstreak dynamics where you get smaller scale divergence in the poleward exit and equatorward entrance region of the jetstreak. A lot of our bigger storms have 2 jetstreaks with their regions of divergence coupled together. Giving me PTSD flashbacks to things I’d forgotten long ago lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine. Ya pretty meh.. but don't miller A's usually trend west as they get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, ineedsnow said: Ya pretty meh.. but don't miller A's usually trend west as they get closer Miller A's can go fuk themselves is the trend i use. 14 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine. Did it come west at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blitzgunner Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Shouldn’t we be watching ensemble trends (member MSLP) over operational trends this far out? Pretty sure the EPS-AIFS nailed the last storm 3-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Did it come west at all? 6z Euro was basically a whiff so probably a little 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 South Carolina born systems are known ragebaiters... I'm waiting patiently Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It was about the time last week that everything started trending north for this past storm. Obviously a much different set up, but the point is that we need to see some movement North and west (besides the GFS/AIGFS) at least by ensembles later tonight into tomorrow. Doesn’t have to be huge…but something. And not the other way around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Did it come west at all? Yes, It went from 67W to 69W or so at the surface. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, It went from 67W to 69W at the surface. Well it was something…let’s keep ticking it. Let’s see what the EPS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 EURO was better than 06z, but worse than 00z....in between. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So what did we glean from 12z? ICON OP whiff, its ens had somewhat of a two camp split. GFS was close to nuclear GEFS looked good as well, UKIE Whiff and Euro with a slight tick W, not sure about EPS. We watch I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO was better than 06z, but worse than 00z....in between. Still not concerned with OTS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro AI similar to 06z. Decent precip in eastern areas, fringed/glancing blow back to the CT river. I seen enough, I am out unfortunately I think this will miss entirely. Cape may get hit, but I don't live there! Good luck everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Still not concerned with OTS? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No. Thinking the ULL closes off later and ends up tracking further NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, ma blizzard said: Thinking the ULL closes off later and ends up tracking further NE? Yes, but more confident that it won't whiff...occlusion is a greater threat, JHMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12z EPS is a bit west of the 06z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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