Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[SouthCoastMA]

ECM-AI with small tick SE. Its well outside BM, and moves ENE. Lets get the trajectory on that more northerly. 

[WxWatcher007]

Euro AI similar to 06z. Decent precip in eastern areas, fringed/glancing blow back to the CT river. 

[nbweather]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

You don’t really want a super-deep low if you want widespread precipitation, because it implies two things

1) it’s likely occluding or close to it

2) the mid and upper-level features are so wrapped up that they basically wrap into itself as opposed to spread out

ideally, you want the ULL to still be strengthening and the storm just getting caught as it gets close to your latitude so it stalls and then slowly degrades over you, as opposed to having an already occluded low decaying over you 

True, my point was more related to the N/W extent of the precip with this. 

[Wxbear25]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Does it usually set up where you have greater difference aloft? 

Yes. In basic terms,  think about what happens when you have diffluence aloft, it implies air is “spreading apart” by direction and potentially speed as well which results in mass divergence. Air then rises to fill that hole creating pressure falls below it, eventually resulting in the development/strengthening of low pressure at the surface

again, very laymen’s terms and not quite as in-depth as an atmospheric dynamics class, but it works as an illustrative process

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Yes. In basic terms,  think about what happens when you have diffluence aloft, it implies air is “spreading apart”, either by speed, direction, or both which results in mass divergence. Air then rises to fill that hole creating pressure falls below it, eventually resulting in the development/strengthening of low pressure at the surface

again, very laymen’s terms but it works as an illustrative process

Thanks. That’s pretty much how I was picturing the process. 

[MuddyWx]

If the Euro is Doctor No, is the AI Professor No?

[Damage In Tolland]

2015 vibes EOR

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2015 vibes EOR

Not good for us here…but we’ll see? 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Thanks. That’s pretty much how I was picturing the process. 

There’s regular synoptic scale diffluence and then you get upper jetstreak dynamics where you get smaller scale divergence in the poleward exit and equatorward entrance region of the jetstreak. A lot of our bigger storms have 2 jetstreaks with their regions of divergence coupled together. 

[dryslot]

12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine.

[Kitz Craver]

31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

IDK not everything is trending se:

You’re right the GFS has been on board with it, buts it pretty much on an island

[subdude]

Cod Fish Crusher. 

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There’s regular synoptic scale diffluence and then you get upper jetstreak dynamics where you get smaller scale divergence in the poleward exit and equatorward entrance region of the jetstreak. A lot of our bigger storms have 2 jetstreaks with their regions of divergence coupled together. 

Giving me PTSD flashbacks to things I’d forgotten long ago lol

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine.

Ya pretty meh.. but don't miller A's usually trend west as they get closer

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Ya pretty meh.. but don't miller A's usually trend west as they get closer

Miller A's can go fuk themselves is the trend i use.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro scrapes the Cape/DE Maine.

Did it come west at all? 

[Blitzgunner]

Shouldn’t we be watching ensemble trends (member MSLP) over operational trends this far out?

 

Pretty sure the EPS-AIFS nailed the last storm 3-5 days out.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Did it come west at all? 

6z Euro was basically a whiff so probably a little

[Prismshine Productions]

South Carolina born systems are known ragebaiters... I'm waiting patiently

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

It was about the time last week that everything started trending north for this past storm.  Obviously a much different set up, but the point is that we need to see some movement North and west (besides the GFS/AIGFS) at least by ensembles later tonight into tomorrow.  Doesn’t have to be huge…but something. And not the other way around.  

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Did it come west at all? 

Yes, It went from 67W to 69W or so at the surface.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yes, It went from 67W to 69W at the surface.

Well it was something…let’s keep ticking it. Let’s see what the EPS says. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO was better than 06z, but worse than 00z....in between.

[Kitz Craver]

So what did we glean from 12z? ICON OP whiff, its ens had somewhat of a two camp split. GFS was close to nuclear GEFS looked good as well, UKIE Whiff and Euro with a slight tick W, not sure about EPS. We watch I guess

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO was better than 06z, but worse than 00z....in between.

Still not concerned with OTS?

[WeatherGeek2025]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro AI similar to 06z. Decent precip in eastern areas, fringed/glancing blow back to the CT river. 

I seen enough, I am out unfortunately I think this will miss entirely. Cape may get hit, but I don't live there! Good luck everyone

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Still not concerned with OTS?

No.

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No.

Thinking the ULL closes off later and ends up tracking further NE? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

Thinking the ULL closes off later and ends up tracking further NE? 

Yes, but more confident that it won't whiff...occlusion is a greater threat, JHMO.

[dryslot]

12z EPS is a bit west of the 06z run.