The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[PackGrad05]

2 to 4 is possible only bc of high ratios. They may save us.


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[Lowpressure1]

Props to Brad P may be in order for calling out the dry slot-even though not a very popular call. 

[Coach McGuirk]

18.2 here, nothing.  But anything will stick. 

[QC_Halo]

12 minutes ago, Lowpressure1 said:

Props to Brad P may be in order for calling out the dry slot-even though not a very popular call. 

I guess it’s a fine line being a broadcast met….make a popular call, or an accurate one.

[msuwx]

9 minutes ago, Lowpressure1 said:

Props to Brad P may be in order for calling out the dry slot-even though not a very popular call. 

From my 5am Thursday discussion: 

"Many times in this type of setup, there will be a bit of a dry slot somewhere around the region as energy transfers to that coastal low. That dry slot (of relatively less snow) is showing up on some modeling while not showing up on others. As of this typing, I have concerns for that dry slot to wreak havoc on snow total forecasts somewhere in central NC."

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GSO is down to 18 degrees and “light snow” report has increased to “snow.”

[Tony Sisk]

1 hour ago, gman said:

GSP NWS has just updated their discussion. If what they say happens, the Upstate to Charlotte is going to get some heavy snow.  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Yep, they say someone in a triangle of GSP - CLT - COLA gonna get hammered!

[Regan]

29 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

2 to 4 is possible only bc of high ratios. They may save us.


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When to expect?

[Aleksey]

When to expect?

Snow starts around 10 to 11 and goes until around 4-5. Heavy rates for a couple hours possible.


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[Regan]

https://www.facebook.com/share/18JUgpSTBJ/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Fishel’s update. Sticking his guns. Says why. I mean… ok. Still. I’d love to see something fall. 

[PackGrad05]

Radar is definitely filling in Johnston county toward eastern wake


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[ncstatered21]

Radar is definitely filling in Johnston county toward eastern wake


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Yeah I see some mPings like 10 minutes east of Holly Springs.


Radar also looks to be filling in down south around Laurinburg

[Aleksey]

Snow has just begun here in Winder, GA


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[SnowHabit]

Very light and scattered flurries have started falling here on Fort Bragg, NC.

[SHTFWX]

42 minutes ago, Lowpressure1 said:

Props to Brad P may be in order for calling out the dry slot-even though not a very popular call. 

Looks like the dry slot is settling in nicely over the Triangle area right now.  

Personally,  I have slowly lost quite a bit of respect for Brad P over these last few years.  Not so much for his Met work,  but for the obvious gaslighting and narcissism

[bigjohndc]

We got a surprise inch and half last night, which no model picked up even as it was happening. If you look at the 12z HRRR it’s initializing way to dry. Compare the actual radar to the model. Maybe I’m a weenie, but until the coastal really gets going we don’t know how long the dry slot will stick around. Especially as everything pivots and moves west to east.

2-5 through the triangle isn’t out of the question. We only need to get like .2 inches of liquid to achieve that.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, bigjohndc said:

We got a surprise inch and half last night, which no model picked up even as it was happening. If you look at the 12z HRRR it’s initializing way to dry. Compare the actual radar to the model. Maybe I’m a weenie, but until the coastal really gets going we don’t know how long the dry slot will stick around. Especially as everything pivots and moves west to east.

2-5 through the triangle isn’t out of the question. We only need to get like .2 inches of liquid to achieve that.

Models are notorious for under doing moisture associated with robust ULLs. I think the Western ULL piece will over perform West of 85 and the coastal generally underperform 

[Shack]

Nice band on radar back in Alabama between Birmingham and Montgomery.  I don't recall seeing it modeled.

I was suspicious that it might be virga but I do see MPING snow reports from it.

Just hoping that feature holds together as the ULL moves east and I see a few flurries here in Macon.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[neatlburbwthrguy]

@SnowGoose69any snow going to make it to Dunwoody/roswell you think? 

[suzook]

11 minutes ago, Shack said:

Nice band on radar back in Alabama between Birmingham and Montgomery.  I don't recall seeing it modeled.

I was suspicious that it might be virga but I do see MPING snow reports from it.

Just hoping that feature holds together as the ULL moves east and I see a few flurries here in Macon.

Nam sort of showed those bands, but they break up quickly as the low starts moving NE. Whoever is under those bands though could pick up an inch or so.

[StantonParkHoya]

Radar is kind of filling in towards pinehurst and southwest. Wake may not be screwed after all.


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[notkrap]

  Flurries in Parkton NC 10 miles south of Fayetteville...barely, almost like sky dandruff 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[ADB83]

Might be too early to say, but the dry slot not as impressive as CAM modeling suggested. I wouldn’t throw in the towel yet in the triangle.


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[SouthCentralWakeCo]

Best 3km NAM run in quite awhile for Wake Co…

[NEGA_Dawg]

Hoping to see some flakes within the next hour.

[PackGrad05]

I've got flurries in southern Wake.

[Kraychav]

Lumberton, NC - 20 miles N of the SC line on I-95. We picked up enough accumulation between midnight and 3AM to cover the bare spots in my lawn. Flurries now.

[CLTWolf]

Any idea on when things might pick up for Wilmington?