The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[ADB83]

Someone in the eastern part of North Carolina or southeastern Virginia is going to get absolutely hammered here.


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[JSB99]

18 minutes ago, NYweatherguy said:

That front end bump drops an inch or two of dry powder in NE Georgia. I feel like that will overperform. 

FFC mentioned ratios up to 20:1 possible in their afternoon discussion. Wouldn’t take much moisture at all to get that for us. 

[RaleighNC]

Prepping my grill to beat Dad's photo. 

[Snowncanes]

ICON might finally be getting a clue. A good bit further SW with a better tilt axis at 72hr

[Snowncanes]

ICON caves. Still room for improvement but it took a big jump towards consensus at 5H

[frazdaddy]

10 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

Prepping my grill to beat Dad's photo. 

Hall of fame pic.

[olafminesaw]

RGEM looks really nice overall, but particularly for the foothills/NE GA crowd

[btownheel]

We have GRAF
https://x.com/tkanost/status/2016614597550059921?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

There may be nothing prettier in the weather world for us in NC than watching the overrunning ULL front end thump moisture hit the brakes as it crashes into an exploding coastal and start reversing course.


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[ADB83]

Icon all but throws in the towel. Starting to leave the UK on an island.


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[Snowncanes]

I know we all hate on the GFS and theres still time for things to go wrong but it’s been remarkably consistent for this storm. Gotta give props where they are due.

[eyewall]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

5 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

Icon all but throws in the towel. Starting to leave the UK on an island.


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Pics, pretty please 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

I know we all hate on the GFS and theres still time for things to go wrong but it’s been remarkably consistent for this storm. Gotta give props where they are due.

This might be a stretch, and i may be wrong completely as well as my memory doesnt serve too well sonetimes...

 

But I feel like in 2009-2010 there was somewhat of a similar setup storm that the GFS latched onto and did not let go from 5 days out. It was the first one to really dig in on its solution and stuck to it, even trumping Dr. NO.  

[SEwakenosnowforu]

This system seems so close to the big down east storms I grew up with...I am trying to remain calm. Dang we always find away to screw this up!

[ADB83]

Pics, pretty please 

I think the Raleigh total will be much higher, but this is a trend in the right direction overall from that model


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[KrummWx]

4 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

I know we all hate on the GFS and theres still time for things to go wrong but it’s been remarkably consistent for this storm. Gotta give props where they are due.

It really has. And it's not on some remote tiny island somewhere, CMC agrees with it and even yesterday's 18z Euro had a big daddy, now the NAM....like, it has legs. Smol, wobbly legs, but legs. We'll see when it caves to Euro or vice versa. It's a fun battle to watch

[Euripides]

My brother is trying to time leaving Florida for a drive back to Long Island as he wants to avoid any snow.

What time is this storm supposed to start around for SC, NC and VA?

Thanks in advance.

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, Euripides said:

My brother is trying to time leaving Florida for a drive back to Long Island as he wants to avoid any snow.

What time is this storm supposed to start around for SC, NC and VA?

he should try to get through this region before friday night

[eyewall]

Happy hour GFS is running.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Good golly, Ms Molly 

[WarmNoseHater]

or take 75 to knoxville and jump on 81 from there

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Snowncanes]

AIGFS not much change in anything. Maybe some minor tweaks but nothing of note

[PackGrad05]

WRAL futurecast showing a warm nose for central NC at the beginning of the storm before it pivots out.

[olafminesaw]

GFS a touch flatter. No surprise, as guidance begins to tighten up

[TPAwx]

Unlikely but it’s a feasible set up. 

Last snowfall here was 1977. 

[StantonParkHoya]

WRAL futurecast showing a warm nose for central NC at the beginning of the storm before it pivots out.

You are truly insufferable


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[Regan]

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL futurecast showing a warm nose for central NC at the beginning of the storm before it pivots out.

Their futurecast graphics blow. 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

You are truly insufferable


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That was an objective fact based on their model run.  There was no opinion or subjectivity paired with it.  

[neverSnowsLCSC]

How similar to the early January 2018 storm is this looking to be?