The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[HKY_WX]

I only care what the Euro and Euro AI say. They led the charge with this previous one. Euro AI did especially well.

[BornAgain13]

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

I am happy with what the models are showing at this point.

Personally I would like to see an earlier phase and a Miller A evolution for those of us in the western parts of NC and SC.  But I am greedy that way...

That is still possible! 5 days out. 

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

I only care what the Euro and Euro AI say. They led the charge with this previous one.

The Euro that had a massive snow storm for NC 4 days out only to change to a crippling ice storm 3 days out that ended up not happening either?

[StantonParkHoya]

I'd like to see some more precip blossom back into GA/SC, rather than depending on the ULL / late phase / negative tilt to do all the work here. I suppose I should just be happy it's still showing up for right now, but I'm greedy.

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The Euro that had a massive snow storm for NC 4 days out only to change to a crippling ice storm 3 days out that ended up not happening either?

None of the models were great 5 days out. The Euro AI was always further north and had a dry slot in eastern NC once we got inside of 48 hours.. It was way better than the GFS or ICON. The reason I know this is I looked at waaay too many model runs the last 3 days.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

None of the models were great 5 days out. The Euro AI was always further north and had a dry slot in eastern NC once we got inside of 48 hours.. It was way better than the GFS or ICON.

They all sucked with the storm except the WeatherNext. It's the new king. The Euro making that big of a change in 24 hours only 3 to 4 days out was horrible. 

[Brick Tamland]

[neverSnowsLCSC]

2 hours ago, gman said:

This is a family friendly forum. Please, for the sake of all that is good, refrain from using filthy language. Thank you. 

My bad. Edited.

[BooneWX]

On the late phase/bloomer idea. I could see this ticking west with time. Our flow to the north is slowly backing up. It’s what you want to see if a big dog is in your appetite. Of course, if you’re down east, you want a strung out mess that blossoms late but if I’m I-95 west to Tenn, south into Georgia, we need to keep the trend of more digging and borderline cutting this thing off in the upper level flow. 

[PeeDeeWx]

19 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I only care what the Euro and Euro AI say. They led the charge with this previous one. Euro AI did especially well.

NAM did the best in my area. Especially with QPF.

[suzook]

Yes I am here. Yes I am an idiot. This time though I wont get too excited until 3 days out.

[StantonParkHoya]

Still a C/ENC storm on the 12z GFS 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is trying to come west,

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Still a beach storm on the 12z GFS 

Not too far off from the ICON, especially at this range

[Regan]

We deserve this. Even if it’s just 3in in NC. We have a lot of cans of soup left. 

[Brick Tamland]

[eyewall]

GFS is a very slight tick west but not really indicative of anything yet. It is also a bit more intense this run. 

[CaryWx]

 It's also looks slower than ICON

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS is for Eastern NC but just a small adjustment and its a big dog

[eyewall]

[chris624wx]

Just now, eyewall said:

It's beautiful! Please don't move haha

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is still the furthest east but watching that NW trend.

[Met1985]

27 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

They all sucked with the storm except the WeatherNext. It's the new king. The Euro making that big of a change in 24 hours only 3 to 4 days out was horrible. 

WeatherNext isn't available to the public yet so I really could care less at this point.  I'd like to see verification scores myself.  The Euro does great at the H5 pattern.  Better than any other model. I guarantee you that. But as far as precipitation,  thermals,  and what not ALL the models have struggled severely this season. 

[ADB83]

GFS running now. Let’s see if it brings the low further west. She’s always the last to the party and might need another couple of days 

[NorthHillsWx]

IMO no global did great. EURO AI sniffed the northern track out earlier. We rag the Euro but with the start time pushed to Sunday it jumped all at once to the more northern track 4-5 days out, obviously it was way too warm but overall after it made that jump I felt it led the way. GFS was just horrible. It held on to the more suppressed look the longest and began a painful tick north for the last 3 days. Short range, NAM nailed it. Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was.
 

For this storm, looking like a miller A, I wonder if models will be better given it may be more consolidated than the mess that was the last system

[Met1985]

13 minutes ago, suzook said:

Yes I am here. Yes I am an idiot. This time though I wont get too excited until 3 days out.

Make that 1 day out.

[StantonParkHoya]

This is a much simpler set up than last time and is purely timing 

[eyewall]

The setup is classic Miller A for this one with a more east based airmass to work with so I think the Miller B risk is low.

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, eyewall said:

The setup is classic Miller A for this one with a more east based airmass to work with so I think the Miller B risk is low.

This is either a snowstorm or a miss OTS. My money is on the miss OTS

[HWY316wx]

Need this to come way West to involve more of the GA guys which would be a major hit for the NC guys.  I am rooting for the W-NW trend.  

Carry on.