February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Icon looks interesting 

It does. But I was wondering where all the cold air went. Lol

[stormtracker]

ICON is intese.  So much so that we get a mix. Negative tilt and all

[Chris78]

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Now that's a good looking panel

[stormtracker]

This one is even better

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ICON is intese.  So much so that we get a mix. Negative tilt and all

Talk about coming out of nowhere.

[Chris78]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This one is even better

It knows where Mt psu is lol

1 little purple shade of intense snow

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This one is even better

I’ll buy that one please 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Talk about coming out of nowhere.

Snuck up on me good. Looks like 5-10" area wide

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It knows where Mt psu is lol

1 little purple shade of intense snow

You think it’s an accident I live here? 

[Chris78]

Minus the Carolinas from this weekend

 That's a nice looking swath of snow 

[bncho]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Minus the Carolinas from this weekend

 That's a nice looking swath of snow 

Talk about a fall line event!

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I like this look a lot 

We’ve had a favorable pna most of winter and it’s doing us no favors with precip. The one good qpf event we got was during a brief -pna.  

Ya it mixed but it phased super early and the block was kinda north and the 50/50 relaxed and there was a SE ridge am we still got a full region warning event!  
 

With the level of blocking we have I think we need some -pna. 2010 was a good example of how a -pna can be good if you had enough blocking. 

 

I mentioned this the other day. Don't tell Chuck.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this the other day. Don't tell Chuck.

Its a great look. I would replay last weekend over and over again if I could as we got probably the "worst" outcome we could besides suppression given the pattern.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You think it’s an accident I live here? 

It's been showing up more on modeling than reality since I moved up here unfortunately. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this the other day. Don't tell Chuck.

I think even Chuck admitted a couple years ago that there is a difference between a full latitude trough causing a -pna and some STJ or mid latitude wave undercutting blocking. 

[Steve25]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Minus the Carolinas from this weekend

 That's a nice looking swath of snow 

Love the idea of this potential getting juiced up a bit but can we not do 1 inch in Baltimore while just to west everyone gets 6-10 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's been showing up more on modeling than reality since I moved up here unfortunately. 

It’s been a rough few years for our area since 2021. But also, you’re in a bit of a dead zone compared to here. Over the 20 years I’ve been here I’ve done significantly better than Hanover.  I got a lot more from that storm in December and the 2 day multiple wave event a couple weeks ago. Over the years I can even do significantly better than @HighStakes who is within walking distance but at the bottom of the ridge I’m on and sometimes that’s meant an extra 1-2” between us. 
 

The globals don’t have the resolution to depict it but when close to a storm look at the hrrr or 3k Nam. You’ll see the difference between the higher elevations and the valley Hanover is in.  Hanover isn’t a bad spot and does much better than Baltimore obviously. But there is a bit of a regional snow max over the higher elevations area along and just south of the PA line in this area. Combination of location and the orientation of the ridges creates a meso scale snow max. I observed it for years before moving to the area. Snow isn’t the only reason I’m in the area but the exact location on this ridge was chosen when that in mind.  I knew this exact spot was the snow max pretty much for this whole area. 

[stormtracker]

Well, I don't know if it;s good or bad, but the h5 on the GFS is different.  s.w hangs back

[87storms]

26 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Minus the Carolinas from this weekend

 That's a nice looking swath of snow 

That might be the one.

[stormtracker]

GFS is further north.

[stormtracker]

Looks like a modest hit

[stormtracker]

[Nomz]

Miller d 

[bncho]

Just now, Nomz said:

Miller d 

where the genuine hell are you finding all of these storm types?

what's next, miller e, the cutter? 

[bncho]

Nice modest hit on the GFS

[bncho]

AI-GFS south again,

[high risk]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

AI-GFS south again,

 

     Was not a total miss.   It had a very modest amount of snow about 24 hours earlier than the map you showed, with some sort of lead wave.

[Snowman.]

CMC crushes NC again like they need more snow.