February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

The aifs ens is very snowy again

I'm  getting the feeling that is their tendency. Anyone know or remember how they looked during periods where ops and ensembles were void of threats?

[Weather Junkie]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

EURO is dry as a gourd.      This is no improvement over the GFS.

Plenty of time for things to get worse. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

The aifs ens is very snowy again

digging into the AIFS ens its mixed... so the mean went back way up...but the median is only about 2".  The reason why is the mean is skewed by the fact that about 30% of the members are huge HUGE hits...like 1-2 foot snowstorms even using 10-1...legit PD3 storms.  Classic east coast storm distribution look to them.  But that's only 1/3.  The rest have a much weaker system with either less snow like the AIFS op that showed 2-3"...and then there are about 40% that have no snow at all and a warmer solution.  

So the AIFS ens are saying we have a decent chance (like 30%) of a BIG snowstorm...but the most likely outcome is a smaller 1-3" type event.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm  getting the feeling that is their tendency. Anyone know or remember how they looked during periods where ops and ensembles were void of threats?

They have had an issue with "follow the leader" but in this case their high snow mean is because about 1/3 of the members didn't follow the op and instead show a blizzard over PD weekend.  

[psuhoffman]

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on.  So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms.  Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.  

[Jersey Andrew]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on.  So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms.  Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.  

Is this a pattern where we can pull off a February 1983 type storm?

[Nomz]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

digging into the AIFS ens its mixed... so the mean went back way up...but the median is only about 2".  The reason why is the mean is skewed by the fact that about 30% of the members are huge HUGE hits...like 1-2 foot snowstorms even using 10-1...legit PD3 storms.  Classic east coast storm distribution look to them.  But that's only 1/3.  The rest have a much weaker system with either less snow like the AIFS op that showed 2-3"...and then there are about 40% that have no snow at all and a warmer solution.  

So the AIFS ens are saying we have a decent chance (like 30%) of a BIG snowstorm...but the most likely outcome is a smaller 1-3" type event.  

so you're telling me theres a chance

[bncho]

EPS-AI has a good snowfall mean for Feb 11-16.

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS-AI has a good snowfall mean for Feb 11-16.

lol...psu just talked about this and whats causing the spike

[blizzardmeiser]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on.  So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms.  Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.  

The blockbuster is back on.  

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS-AI has a good snowfall mean for Feb 11-16.

Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo as a snow town. The Mid Atlantic in winter is like watching a magnificent fish glide through water. Heck we even managed a snow and sleet storm at 16 degrees when the northern and southern streams phased over Kansas. I-95 is the opposite of cooked. Mountains have even more of a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the Snow Bros Anonymous meeting. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the benefit of being in the MA, when its super cold it's congrats Bob Chill. When its marginal, it's congrats Georgetown. Any other circumstance and I've just got to take my 151k Denny's salary and rent a cabin out in West Virginia.

[CAPE]

As I posted this morning, the potential for a storm after the storm, around the 20th, is looking pretty interesting.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo as a snow town. The Mid Atlantic in winter is like watching a magnificent fish glide through water. Heck we even managed a snow and sleet storm at 16 degrees when the northern and southern streams phased over Kansas. I-95 is the opposite of cooked. Mountains have even more of a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the Snow Bros Anonymous meeting. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. 

This is the benefit of being in the MA, when its super cold it's congrats Bob Chill. When its marginal, it's congrats Georgetown. Any other circumstance and I've just got to take my 151k Denny's salary and rent a cabin out in West Virginia.

Bravo!  Well played!

[AdamHLG]

As we sit here today, I think we are exactly where we want to be for next weekend based on what I learn on this forum every winter:  1) We don't want to be in the bullseye 10 days out; 2) We are OK because these events always trend north; 3) we are also ok because these events always trend south; 3) weekend rule; 4) the storm will make its own cold air; 5) the models did not ingest the latest data from airplanes; and 6) its a Baja ejection thing so no worries.    We are so back.              

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Another February, another massive -PNA (Aleutian ridge). Pattern change looks to take place around Feb 9th, enjoy your snow tomorrow.

[Steve25]

Chuck said screw your thoughts and analysis, and double screw that groundhog, it’s OVER! 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, blizzardmeiser said:

The blockbuster is back on.  

[GreyHat]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

EPS-AI has a good snowfall mean for Feb 11-16.

The 850 temps are marginal,  2m temps are good depending on your location and the 500mb & 700mb temps are cold.

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on.  So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms.  Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.  

PSU--i did a weenie count and counted 20 big hits or big signals

 

02,04,05(lol),06,12,14,16,18,19,20,22,23,26,27,30,33,39,43,44,45

 

[Climate175]

1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Is this a pattern where we can pull off a February 1983 type storm?

Wouldn’t that be something…

[stormy]

1 hour ago, Weather Junkie said:

Plenty of time for things to get worse. 

You are exactly right........... A week to go, we could have a cat 5 Hurricane.   

I have been following models for 20 years and never can I remember 6 hours like today.

Are the models changing or are the pattern repetitions changing???

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Another February, another massive -PNA (Aleutian ridge). Pattern change looks to take place around Feb 9th, enjoy your snow tomorrow.

How about this look? The Pac ridge shifts northward and builds into the WPO domain, which causes the deep trough out west to weaken and shift north/expand eastward some. If this verifies there will be more of a mechanism for delivery of colder air into our nearby source region. No hint of a SE ridge and potentially active with energy in the southwest ejecting eastward.

 

[CAPE]

12z GEFS kinda likes that window too

Here ya go snow map freaks- not bad 2 weeks out lol

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How about this look? The Pac ridge shifts northward and builds into the WPO domain, which causes the deep trough out west to weaken and shift north/expand eastward some. If this verifies there will be more of a mechanism for delivery of colder air into our nearby source region. No hint of a SE ridge and potentially active with energy in the southwest ejecting eastward.

 

I don't like that look, the EPO is positive. The trough in eastern Alaska and western Canada is a mechanism to cause a fast Pacific jet and surface level warmth here in the east that you don't really see on 500mb. Sometimes in +EPO, the H5 will be neutral or slightly negative, but low level warmth dominates. We need that -PNA ridge to go poleward further east or NE. Otherwise we'll be in the upper 30s/low 40s for storms.  

[CAPE]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't like that look, the EPO is positive. The trough in eastern Alaska and western Canada is a mechanism to cause a fast Pacific jet and surface level warmth that you don't really see on 500mb. Sometimes in +EPO, the H5 will be neutral or slightly negative, but low level warmth dominates. We need that -PNA ridge to go poleward further east or NE. Otherwise we'll be in the upper 30s/low 40s for storms.  

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

I just want a favorable Pacific pattern - I don't care so much about the NAO. In mid to late February, our average high creeps up to the low to mid 40s, so we do need a below average pattern. +EPO/-PNA won't do that >90% of the time. 

It is pretty bad that we had a lot of favorable patterns the last 2 Winters with not much precip, but that's a Nina STJ.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

once he is locked and loaded with -PNA...its pretty much over with him no matter what else shows up. Sometimes oscillations can neutralize other oscillations like this big ass +WPO is going not overcome a solid -AO/-NAO this week/weekend/maybe next week

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just want a favorable Pacific pattern - I don't care so much about the NAO. In mid to late February, our average high creeps up to the low to mid 40s, so we do need a below average pattern. +EPO/-PNA won't do that >90% of the time. 

It is pretty bad that we had a lot of favorable patterns the last 2 Winters with not much precip, but that's a Nina STJ. I am thankful for my 2 week glacier.

Hey I love me a +PNA/-EPO pattern with bigtime cold. That's worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our area recently. Not so much for folks NW of I-95. That includes you I think. Why root for cold and dry lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hey I love me a +PNA/-EPO pattern with bigtime cold. That's worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our area recently. Not so much for folks NW of I-95. That includes you I think. Why root for cold and dry lol.

I'll always take a chance with this +PNA low pressure correlation (both sides are considered, -pna is opposite)

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

How about this look? The Pac ridge shifts northward and builds into the WPO domain, which causes the deep trough out west to weaken and shift north/expand eastward some. If this verifies there will be more of a mechanism for delivery of colder air into our nearby source region. No hint of a SE ridge and potentially active with energy in the southwest ejecting eastward.

 

I wonder how much the early SSW/reversal played in this winter having a consistently favorable(ish) Pacific. This doesn't seem to be the normal La Nina here, where it's cool for a few weeks before we torch.