January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[Solution Man]

NWS has been bullish on total, I suspect their right

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, konksw said:

You are just completely ignoring the NWS forecast?

You’re wasting your time. That dude is immune to criticism.

[clskinsfan]

I mean this is insane. Not sure I have ever seen a national radar look like this. We may not get a historic storm here. But there is no doubting this is a historic storm as far as national coverage goes. Wow. 

[Hokiehop]

Bust confirmed

The ledge isn’t as bad as some say. Run, don’t walk.


.

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Forget the NAM. It’s 50 miles off everything else even the other cams. But I Caught something on the RRFS. 
 

Verbatim it’s meh with 4-5” across the area. But it has an intense band of precip from 16-19z across the area as sleet but it’s super close.  It’s only +1 at about 750 mb. Every other layer is fine. This is 700 which is the closest layer I can get represented but it’s close to the warmest layer. If it’s 1* colder across this area from 16-19z it would be 10” instead of 4” 

This trend has been on the last 2 runs and now it’s super close to a better result  

Actually PSU I don't mean to be a complete ass but I want to mention the the warm nose is more at 800mb, so that's not going to be snow even if it were 1*C colder.

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Watching the virga/radar hole that now occupies an apparently permanent snow-repelling rip in the space-time continuum in the skies above Baltimore and feeling sorry for myself.

One day, perhaps far into the future, my children's children's children will be mind-typing "Ooh, Baltimore's really getting the goods early this storm!" into their virtual ether communicators, and the story of their ancestors and The Great Balmer Snow Drought will be a fuzzy and distant memory that has faded into legend.

I envy those young snow lovers. I shall picture them laughing and frolicking and bounding through the drifts into their anti-grav plasma boots as I sob quietly into my pillow tonight until the unbearable pain finally, mercifully whisks me away to a blissful nothingness.

Wow man that's one of the best posts up in here about scifi that I have ever read!

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

You’re wasting your time. That dude is immune to criticism.

First of all people getting butthurt over ratings is not criticism. Second of all I'm only having this mindset based on how things are playing out in real time. I could've cliff jumped when the NAM did it's thing yesterday but I didn't.

[coastal front]

Once the waa thump beefs up towards sunrise with 1-3” an hour rates it should slow the sleet line a bit. Something farther south doesn’t have right now. 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Watching the virga/radar hole that now occupies an apparently permanent snow-repelling rip in the space-time continuum in the skies above Baltimore and feeling sorry for myself.

One day, perhaps far into the future, my children's children's children will be mind-typing "Ooh, Baltimore's really getting the goods early this storm!" into their virtual ether communicators, and the story of their ancestors and The Great Balmer Snow Drought will be a fuzzy and distant memory that has faded into legend.

I envy those young snow lovers. I shall picture them laughing and frolicking and bounding through the drifts into their anti-grav plasma boots as I sob quietly into my pillow tonight until the unbearable pain finally, mercifully whisks me away to a blissful nothingness.

Lemme know when your book is published.  I'll buy the first copy!  Kocin and Uccellini best be looking over their shoulders.

[konksw]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They've been wrong before. See also February 2024.

Ok? It’s gonna snow. Then there will be sleet. And maybe some freezing rain. And we’ll all be alive.  
 

Though that is less than guaranteed when encountering ice these days.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

Ok? It’s gonna snow. Then there will be sleet. And maybe some freezing rain. And we’ll all be alive.  
 

Though that is less than guaranteed when encountering ice these days.

I know it's going to snow, that was never in doubt. It's just that if the changeover happens sooner than expected then it'll be way less than most are forecasting.

 

People keep putting words in my mouth and it's getting old.

[KAOS]

[nw baltimore wx]

Go Caps!!!

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm 60 miles north of that line

The better argument is that the rgem/euro and other guidance that gives us 8-12” does so by sticking an incredibly intense band over us from 10-16z. It’s a lot easier for WAA to win in light to moderate precip than it will be to advance if there is a band of .1 qpf/hr+ stuff over the area. It’s all going to come down to that really imo. The NAM doesn’t have that. It shifts the heavy banding way up into central PA and the WAA routes us because there is no dynamic cooling to slow it down. 
 

Basically if this is what’s going on from 10-16z the snow will hold on longer north of about 66 and definitely north of a Winchester to Baltimore line  

 

this on the other hand, ain’t gonna get it done

Everyone is focused on the temps on the NAM, the real issue is why is the NAM missing the heavy banding tomorrow morning that all other guidance has. That’s why the mid level warmth surges north from 10-15z there is nothing to slow it down on the NAM. 

[Disc]

Based off what I can tell, the transition line is from about Lewisburg, WV, east to Lynchburg, VA and then drops SE towards Emporia. This seems to line up fairly well with guidance so far.

[pazzo83]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Go Caps!!!

see if we can hold it

[Scraff]

Let’s Go Caaaaaps!! 3-2. Almost time for a stout. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

First of all people getting butthurt over ratings is not criticism. Second of all I'm only having this mindset based on how things are playing out in real time. I could've cliff jumped when the NAM did it's thing yesterday but I didn't.

[konksw]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I know it's going to snow, that was never in doubt. It's just that if the changeover happens sooner than expected then it'll be way less than most are forecasting.

 

People keep putting words in my mouth and it's getting old.

It’s just not that serious. 

[Ji]

Actually PSU I don't mean to be a complete ass but I want to mention the the warm nose is more at 800mb, so that's not going to be snow even if it were 1*C colder.

Lol he isn’t talking about dca

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, KAOS said:

Insanity

[LordBaltimore]

4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Watching the virga/radar hole that now occupies an apparently permanent snow-repelling rip in the space-time continuum in the skies above Baltimore and feeling sorry for myself.

One day, perhaps far into the future, my children's children's children will be mind-typing "Ooh, Baltimore's really getting the goods early this storm!" into their virtual ether communicators, and the story of their ancestors and The Great Balmer Snow Drought will be a fuzzy and distant memory that has faded into legend.

I envy those young snow lovers. I shall picture them laughing and frolicking and bounding through the drifts into their anti-grav plasma boots as I sob quietly into my pillow tonight until the unbearable pain finally, mercifully whisks me away to a blissful nothingness.

If you wanna be even more envious, by that time cars will be electric and most city buildings will have replaced furnaces with mini-split type heat-pumps so they'll have no UHI to worry about

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Lol he isn’t talking about dca

Sorry up here it was higher up at 16z. Assumed it was similar further south. 
 

it’s super close 70 north. DC not so much. 
Unfortunately I think DC south is cooked for the bigger snow totals.  Things are tightening up and the gradient looks to end up somewhere near a Leesburg  to Baltimore line with snow totals going from 3-5” south of that to 10” north or there pretty quick. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

It’s just not that serious. 

A lot of people take certain ratings too seriously.

[Hank Scorpio]

We've got first flakes where I am in Loudoun right now, just a few miles SE of Leesburg. It's light, but fun to know that every single flake is sticking 

[Jebman]

8 minutes ago, KAOS said:

Thinking this seems like a jeb nightmare. How do you even shovel heavy freezing rain?

 

How do you shovel heavy freezing rain? Well throw salt and sand at it. Try not to slip. 

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You think it'll be 2021 bad down there?

No chance. I would be SHOCKED. 2021 was beyond anything I thought I would ever witness living in Texas. 

[WeatherQ]

Good evening all from the most NE MD part of our viewing area and still in the Sub. Several hundred yards from the Tri-State (DE/PA/MD) marker. Little Egypt Road, Elkton MD. May the Force Be With Us All! And the HRRR! 
 

16F/-4F

Absolute calm winds 

30.65 in pressure 

[Ruin]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean this is insane. Not sure I have ever seen a national radar look like this. We may not get a historic storm here. But there is no doubting this is a historic storm as far as national coverage goes. Wow. 

Id like the radar to be more filled in some dry areas or very light returns we need them to fill in 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

4 minutes ago, konksw said:

Ok? It’s gonna snow. Then there will be sleet. And maybe some freezing rain. And we’ll all be alive.  
 

Though that is less than guaranteed when encountering ice these days.