Southern Crippler - Get well soon Jimbo Storm Obs

[StantonParkHoya]

This isn’t over. Look at the radar out west. 

Doesn’t change the fact that forecast was for this to turn to ZR around midnight last night. It’s noon and a sleet to sometimes light snow.


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[wxdawg10]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

WRAL had the triangle in the “crippling” category yesterday 

based on all guidance you, as a storm tracker here on this forum, saw following this storm, i think that word was valid. I don't know why you're trying to act like all of us here weren't worried about a dangerous ice storm.

[Regan]

I think there’s really unrealistic expectations of mets. I’ll say it again. Weather is always changing and lately it’s wonky. The mets do there best to keep us informed based on the models the best they can. They allllll did so. Daily. Heck, hourly. They let us know about the changes. It changes. Just be glad it’s not .5 or more here. Some people are messed up out west and again, this isn’t over. If we get .25 or close it we could still lose power. All we can do is chill. The whole “bust” thing irritates me. 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

based on all guidance you, as a storm tracker here on this forum, saw following this storm, i think that word was valid. I don't know why you're trying to act like all of us here weren't worried about a dangerous ice storm.

Everyone was, I’m not saying it’s bad. But two days ago model QPF trended way down and most dismissed it. Not calling anyone out but it is what it is.

That being said, this is awesome sledding. Best street sledding since I’ve lived in my current house (2018)

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone was, I’m not saying it’s bad. But two days ago model QPF trended way down and most dismissed it. Not calling anyone out but it is what it is.

That being said, this is awesome sledding. Best street sledding since I’ve lived in my current house (2018)

The QPF thing is upsetting because we could have easily had 3-4" of sleet had we gotten the moisture. Instead the heavy stuff waits until we flip to ZR

[sarcean]

11 minutes ago, Regan said:

That’s subjective too. People in the triangle could lose power for a number of reasons. Thankfully it won’t be because of .5-.8 inches of ice. But it won’t stop trees that are weak from being a problem. Some people will suffer from this even if you don’t. I don’t see this as a forecasting bust. Weather is always changing and thy have kept us informed. Chill. 

Charlotte has a much bigger population than Raleigh, not sure why Raliegh/RDU area is over represented on this forum.

Think Charlotte area is going to have it quite a bit worse after this is all said and done due to where Raliegh area sits and the way the front is coming across 

[kvegas-wx]

More of an impossible forecast than a bust.  Nobody has ever seen CAD conditions like this as far as my 58 years can recall.  So there aren't any analogs to model against that says "historic CAD = 12 hour delay in precip arriving".  This is 100% an evolving situation and highly dependent upon local conditions including terrain / altitude.  I think the whole forum deserves a pass on this one.

[SUNYGRAD]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everyone was, I’m not saying it’s bad. But two days ago model QPF trended way down and most dismissed it. Not calling anyone out but it is what it is.

That being said, this is awesome sledding. Best street sledding since I’ve lived in my current house (2018)

Heck yeah with sledding.  I am late 50s and I am going.

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing- most models are (predictably) trending colder this evening and overnight 

[StantonParkHoya]

Charlotte has a much bigger population than Raleigh, not sure why Raliegh/RDU area is over represented on this forum.
Think Charlotte area is going to have it quite a bit worse after this is all said and done due to where Raliegh area sits and the way the front is coming across 

Wake County has a larger population than Mecklenburg and Durham + Raleigh MSAs are bigger. Hope this helps.


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[sarcean]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

More of an impossible forecast than a bust.  Nobody has ever seen CAD conditions like this as far as my 58 years can recall.  So there aren't any analogs to model against that says "historic CAD = 12 hour delay in precip arriving".  This is 100% an evolving situation and highly dependent upon local conditions including terrain / altitude.  I think the whole forum deserves a pass on this one.

The warm nose on this storm has to be historical. For Charlotte to be at 18 degrees this morning and top of Mt. Mitchell at 40 is very wild.

 

[kvegas-wx]

We're going to get another 1/2" of sleet here in the triad before this flips to ZR later today.  It is still raining sleet here.

[olafminesaw]

Yesterday's NAM was about 10 degrees too warm to current temp

[DTP]

Believe or not, the NAM actually did a pretty good job up to current in modeling the storm

[sarcean]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Wake County has a larger population than Mecklenburg and Durham + Raleigh MSAs are bigger. Hope this helps.


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Wrong. Charlotte metro population is 2.9 million. RDU metro population doesn't come close to that (1.5 million).

[Orange county]

6 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Charlotte has a much bigger population than Raleigh, not sure why Raliegh/RDU area is over represented on this forum.

Think Charlotte area is going to have it quite a bit worse after this is all said and done due to where Raliegh area sits and the way the front is coming across 

It would be great to have more Charlotte posters

[sarcean]

1 minute ago, DTP said:

Believe or not, the NAM actually did a pretty good job up to current in modeling the storm

TBD. I think the worst is to come with the moisture and warm nose that is still to come. 

 

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Wake County has a larger population than Mecklenburg and Durham + Raleigh MSAs are bigger. Hope this helps.


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No it doesn’t. Not even close. 

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Wake County has a larger population than Mecklenburg and Durham + Raleigh MSAs are bigger. Hope this helps.


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Lol

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

We're going to get another 1/2" of sleet here in the triad before this flips to ZR later today.  It is still raining sleet here.

Perhaps, although we seem to be entering the dry slot now. May backfill a bit, but I think by 12-1pm precip will be very light until the backside band swings through. Maybe we get some sleet in that band as well (let's hope so)

[DTP]

5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

More of an impossible forecast than a bust.  Nobody has ever seen CAD conditions like this as far as my 58 years can recall.  So there aren't any analogs to model against that says "historic CAD = 12 hour delay in precip arriving".  This is 100% an evolving situation and highly dependent upon local conditions including terrain / altitude.  I think the whole forum deserves a pass on this one.

Spent half my life in this region and I haven't seen a CAD event of this magnitude- the delay was probably the biggest issue...but you are correct- I would have some grace for everyone on this storm, including the local news mets- how this played out to current has been downright bizarre; and it isn't over

[NorthHillsWx]

Dry slot doesn’t even contain freezing drizzle. Just dry

[Drummer]

Lake Wylie. 0.25-0.5in of sleet, after an initial round of very light freezing rain after midnight. Waiting on the bigger round but kids and dog are enjoying.


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[sarcean]

1 minute ago, Drummer said:

Lake Wylie. 0.25-0.5in of sleet, after an initial round of very light freezing rain after midnight. Waiting on the bigger round but kids and dog are enjoying.


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Live on Lake Wylie myself in Belmont, but good to see someone else on this forum there 

[StantonParkHoya]

No it doesn’t. Not even close. 

You may want to google that


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[DTP]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yesterday's NAM was about 10 degrees too warm to current temp

Ya it was a little on the warm side, which is weird for the NAM (usually too cold); however, it did nail down the precip fields and p-type really well, especially in Upstate SC

[eyewall]

I  was moved up to northern VA for fear of the ice at home and losing power by my job. I can say in Sterling, VA we have 1/2 mile vis in sleet now and that follows about 5 inches of snow. 

[AGardiner87]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1KqS5WMbe6/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[Regan]

27 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Charlotte has a much bigger population than Raleigh, not sure why Raliegh/RDU area is over represented on this forum.

Think Charlotte area is going to have it quite a bit worse after this is all said and done due to where Raliegh area sits and the way the front is coming across 

I think because a lot of us live here. Yeah. West of here will probably see worse and has. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

A truly remarkable setup