Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yep, @WxUSAF was 100% correct earlier in the week when he said a Nina was gonna fight back. Was hard to see every single failure mode teaming up against us but it did. Historic cold is the saving grace. One day our luck will flip, and even if we boom tomorrow, we did still fumble this one a bit.

It wasn't the nina. It took cosmically bad luck to ruin this setup. A stronger NS would've been fine if it wasn't for the Baja low becoming a neg tilt monster that trended north, I mean it was such an insane set of circumstances it cannot be blamed on Nina. Instead I think the only explanation is that we've been cursed by a witch or some sort of supernatural being.

[RDM]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Finally made my snowfall slides for my Instagram post. Might as well share them here!

Nice graphics and well written.  2 is a lot of freezing rain.  You may want to add the decimal points in the 2, 4 and 6 for clarity.  

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And that is largely a function of h5 shortwave interactions. As I have said- say it with me- all our hopes and dreams are determined by random wave interactions and timing.

....that are much easier in Niños  See we don't have as much problem in those. And y'all wonder why I rant about ninas so much. Ninos are so much simpler with the wave interactions as long as the cold is there.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

My son is at VT (Blacksburg) so similar to you. Thx for all that you do here.

I’m Parkton, fwiw.

Howdy neighbor. I’m surprised roads aren’t brined yet haha 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, RDM said:

Nice graphics and well written.  2 is a lot of freezing rain.  You may want to add the decimal points in the 2, 4 and 6 for clarity.  

Oops! Always good to have a second set of eyes. Thank you!

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

Howdy neighbor. I’m surprised roads aren’t brined yet haha 

Brining and salting won't help much with this event. Surface and near subsurface temperatures are just too cold. Plowing will be the key here. 

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Brining and salting won't help much with this event. Surface and near subsurface temperatures are just too cold. Plowing will be the key here. 

Ahh thanks! 

[RDM]

Just now, mappy said:

Howdy neighbor. I’m surprised roads aren’t brined yet haha 

VDOT started brining in FFCO Thursday am.  Our road had a very heavy coat of it.  Caused a cloud of dust to rise after every car that went by. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

Ahh thanks! 

No problem. Some of the two inch soil temperatures are in the upper 20s. One of the I-83 State highway sensors near Butler, MD had a road temperature of 19° this morning!

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yep, @WxUSAF was 100% correct earlier in the week when he said a Nina was gonna fight back. Was hard to see every single failure mode teaming up against us but it did. Historic cold is the saving grace. One day our luck will flip, and even if we boom tomorrow, we did still fumble this one a bit.

Yea but the issue seems to be more about amp instead of de-amp. Regardless, this storm is annoying. Under absolutely no circumstance should we be worried about sleet when it’s 10-15 degrees out at start time. We’re just not that good at this game, but it is nice to at least get a thump before the correlation coefficient posts go ham.

[Imgoinhungry]

Lots of doom and gloom in here. Is the storm already over!?


.

[baltosquid]

GFS amping more at hr12. Have to hope it at least results in a juicier thump.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No problem. Some of the two inch soil temperatures are in the upper 20s. One of the I-83 State highway sensors near Butler, MD had a road temperature of 19° this morning!

It’s frigid out there so not surprised. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Lots of doom and gloom in here. Is the storm already over!?

Nope. Folks just getting hangry over the usual silliness.

[Imgoinhungry]

The valentines day storm in 2007. Was that a sleet bomb which encased dc metro in concrete for a while? Am i recalling that correctly?


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[mitchnick]

Gfs decent thru 7am

[baltosquid]

Pretty big nudge stronger and NE with the 850mb low on the GFS.

[nj2va]

GFS is a bit more QPF in the thump over 6z.  About 0.1” more in DC at H27. Waiting for sounding to come in to see when we’d flip but 0.7” QPF by 15z in DC.

[mitchnick]

Gfs laughs at Nams

[87storms]

For those that haven’t ventured outside yet (eg, you don’t have a dog), it’s a legitimate ice box. I’m gonna say it now…the nam is full of ish. I’m going with the euro.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nope. Folks just getting hangry over the usual silliness.

Increasing odds of busting low with more sleet is hardly what I'd call silliness...but you're right we hangry, lol

[baltosquid]

Just now, nj2va said:

GFS is a bit more QPF in the thump over 6z.  About 0.1” more in DC at H27. Waiting for sounding to come in to see when we’d flip but 0.7” QPF by 15z in DC.

Yeah it amps more but it juices the thump which is what the tradeoff was kind of supposed to be! The CAMs just want to give us the worst of both worlds.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Increqsing odds of busting low with more sleet is hardly what I'd call silliness...but you're right we hungry, look

Just need to root for the best model in the world and its AI companion. I guess if we’re down to the end here, it’s a good teammate to have. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It wasn't the nina. It took cosmically bad luck to ruin this setup. A stronger NS would've been fine if it wasn't for the Baja low becoming a neg tilt monster that trended north, I mean it was such an insane set of circumstances it cannot be blamed on Nina. Instead I think the only explanation is that we've been cursed by a witch or some sort of supernatural being.

I think its a little bit of both. Models touched on the right idea over 10 days ago when they wanted to cut the storm west of us. Gfs had that, just too extreme with 80” snowfall in PA. That’s characteristic of ninas. But then they went way south with all that cold. We still have the cold, but models returned to their original idea. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs laughs at Nams

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS snow totals 4 pm Sunday; everything has changed to sleet by this time

[baltosquid]

Banding means Baltimore gets less than DC on this run but I don’t really care about that, get the wetter thump and I think it would turn out alright.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

All for Boston to laugh at us when they pick up 20” in this…fitting end to yet another disaster for us. Just hope it thumps, and when it doesn’t we can sail off into the sunset. 

[87storms]

Gfs looks like 0.75” minimum in Frederick before the sleet line encroaches up 270.

[MLynnWx]

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

The valentines day storm in 2007. Was that a sleet bomb which encased dc metro in concrete for a while? Am i recalling that correctly?


.

I believe so. In the days after, moonlight reflecting off of the shiny, ice-topped snow covered fields looked like a really fake snow scene in a low budget movie.