SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep, @WxUSAF was 100% correct earlier in the week when he said a Nina was gonna fight back. Was hard to see every single failure mode teaming up against us but it did. Historic cold is the saving grace. One day our luck will flip, and even if we boom tomorrow, we did still fumble this one a bit. It wasn't the nina. It took cosmically bad luck to ruin this setup. A stronger NS would've been fine if it wasn't for the Baja low becoming a neg tilt monster that trended north, I mean it was such an insane set of circumstances it cannot be blamed on Nina. Instead I think the only explanation is that we've been cursed by a witch or some sort of supernatural being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Finally made my snowfall slides for my Instagram post. Might as well share them here! Nice graphics and well written. 2 is a lot of freezing rain. You may want to add the decimal points in the 2, 4 and 6 for clarity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: And that is largely a function of h5 shortwave interactions. As I have said- say it with me- all our hopes and dreams are determined by random wave interactions and timing. ....that are much easier in Niños See we don't have as much problem in those. And y'all wonder why I rant about ninas so much. Ninos are so much simpler with the wave interactions as long as the cold is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said: My son is at VT (Blacksburg) so similar to you. Thx for all that you do here. I’m Parkton, fwiw. Howdy neighbor. I’m surprised roads aren’t brined yet haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, RDM said: Nice graphics and well written. 2 is a lot of freezing rain. You may want to add the decimal points in the 2, 4 and 6 for clarity. Oops! Always good to have a second set of eyes. Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, mappy said: Howdy neighbor. I’m surprised roads aren’t brined yet haha Brining and salting won't help much with this event. Surface and near subsurface temperatures are just too cold. Plowing will be the key here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Brining and salting won't help much with this event. Surface and near subsurface temperatures are just too cold. Plowing will be the key here. Ahh thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, mappy said: Howdy neighbor. I’m surprised roads aren’t brined yet haha VDOT started brining in FFCO Thursday am. Our road had a very heavy coat of it. Caused a cloud of dust to rise after every car that went by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, mappy said: Ahh thanks! No problem. Some of the two inch soil temperatures are in the upper 20s. One of the I-83 State highway sensors near Butler, MD had a road temperature of 19° this morning! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep, @WxUSAF was 100% correct earlier in the week when he said a Nina was gonna fight back. Was hard to see every single failure mode teaming up against us but it did. Historic cold is the saving grace. One day our luck will flip, and even if we boom tomorrow, we did still fumble this one a bit. Yea but the issue seems to be more about amp instead of de-amp. Regardless, this storm is annoying. Under absolutely no circumstance should we be worried about sleet when it’s 10-15 degrees out at start time. We’re just not that good at this game, but it is nice to at least get a thump before the correlation coefficient posts go ham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Lots of doom and gloom in here. Is the storm already over!?. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS amping more at hr12. Have to hope it at least results in a juicier thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No problem. Some of the two inch soil temperatures are in the upper 20s. One of the I-83 State highway sensors near Butler, MD had a road temperature of 19° this morning! It’s frigid out there so not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: Lots of doom and gloom in here. Is the storm already over!? Nope. Folks just getting hangry over the usual silliness. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The valentines day storm in 2007. Was that a sleet bomb which encased dc metro in concrete for a while? Am i recalling that correctly?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Gfs decent thru 7am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Pretty big nudge stronger and NE with the 850mb low on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS is a bit more QPF in the thump over 6z. About 0.1” more in DC at H27. Waiting for sounding to come in to see when we’d flip but 0.7” QPF by 15z in DC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Gfs laughs at Nams 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 For those that haven’t ventured outside yet (eg, you don’t have a dog), it’s a legitimate ice box. I’m gonna say it now…the nam is full of ish. I’m going with the euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nope. Folks just getting hangry over the usual silliness. Increasing odds of busting low with more sleet is hardly what I'd call silliness...but you're right we hangry, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nj2va said: GFS is a bit more QPF in the thump over 6z. About 0.1” more in DC at H27. Waiting for sounding to come in to see when we’d flip but 0.7” QPF by 15z in DC. Yeah it amps more but it juices the thump which is what the tradeoff was kind of supposed to be! The CAMs just want to give us the worst of both worlds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Increqsing odds of busting low with more sleet is hardly what I'd call silliness...but you're right we hungry, look Just need to root for the best model in the world and its AI companion. I guess if we’re down to the end here, it’s a good teammate to have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: It wasn't the nina. It took cosmically bad luck to ruin this setup. A stronger NS would've been fine if it wasn't for the Baja low becoming a neg tilt monster that trended north, I mean it was such an insane set of circumstances it cannot be blamed on Nina. Instead I think the only explanation is that we've been cursed by a witch or some sort of supernatural being. I think its a little bit of both. Models touched on the right idea over 10 days ago when they wanted to cut the storm west of us. Gfs had that, just too extreme with 80” snowfall in PA. That’s characteristic of ninas. But then they went way south with all that cold. We still have the cold, but models returned to their original idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Gfs laughs at Nams Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 WB 12Z GFS snow totals 4 pm Sunday; everything has changed to sleet by this time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Banding means Baltimore gets less than DC on this run but I don’t really care about that, get the wetter thump and I think it would turn out alright. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, TSSN+ said: Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. All for Boston to laugh at us when they pick up 20” in this…fitting end to yet another disaster for us. Just hope it thumps, and when it doesn’t we can sail off into the sunset. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Gfs looks like 0.75” minimum in Frederick before the sleet line encroaches up 270. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLynnWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: The valentines day storm in 2007. Was that a sleet bomb which encased dc metro in concrete for a while? Am i recalling that correctly? . I believe so. In the days after, moonlight reflecting off of the shiny, ice-topped snow covered fields looked like a really fake snow scene in a low budget movie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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