Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[stormtracker]

GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z.  Why can't this be right one time

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z.  Why can't this be right one time

Is that time more or less in line with most other guidance except perhaps the NAM?  Certainly the heavier precip up to the time we flip is better.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z.  Why can't this be right one time

It can be, it looks similar to the euro. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Is that time more or less in line with most other guidance except perhaps the NAM?  Certainly the heavier precip up to the time we flip is better.

Just comparing it against the NAM.  Haven't really checked against anything else.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z.  Why can't this be right one time

What if it is...the people that think the nam is right are inherently negative about everything in their lives

[weatherCCB]

If you look at the radar stormtracker posted.  Precip looks to be moving ESE.

 

[jayyy]

Man, just give me that 16-18z changeover the gfs has

[mitchnick]

That's a snowy run. Love to see the maps.

[mappy]

Regardless of precip type, there’s a ton of qpf coming our way.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

That's a snowy run. Love to see the maps.

Gfs was actually colder. N/W crew gets taken to the impound lot.

[RickinBaltimore]

Just now, mappy said:

Regardless of precip type, there’s a ton of qpf coming our way.

We REALLY need that. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

GFS around 8-10" through 18Z, according to TT 10:1 maps?  That may be a little while after a flip but it's close to that time.  Certainly after that it's sleet.

(ETA:  Talking about the DC-Balt metro corridor)

[mappy]

Just now, RickinBaltimore said:

We REALLY need that. 

Gfs has been consistent in qpf total for my backyard for days 1.2-1.4 range. Yes, it’s gonna sleet, just wanna squeeze as much fluff out that qpf as I can before it mixes lol 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS: please be correct!!! At Church, I am praying.

[winter_warlock]

54 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z ICON snowfall is an improvement.

Probably sleet accumulate after that

[yoda]

Just give me 6"... I will take all the sleet after.  6" of snow before flip.  

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Neither they both suck

Appreciate the brutal honesty 

[winter_warlock]

I hope I get at least 8 inches  before any change over. And I mean a real 8 inches, not what I have my current wife thinking 8 inches is 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Just give me 6"... I will take all the sleet after.  6" of snow before flip.  

It’s precipitating to the NM/MX border and it’s 19F with a wedged arctic high.  Hard to believe we may hit 6 inches.  Something seems off about that.  It’s fine but just not the blockbuster I had imagined.  Maybe all the guidance is wrong.  

[jayyy]

It’s precipitating to the NM/MX border and it’s 19F with a wedged arctic high.  Hard to believe we may hit 6 inches.  Something seems off about that.  It’s fine but just not the blockbuster I had imagined.  Maybe all the guidance is wrong.  

Trough amplified too far west. Hard to believe this isn’t all snow but that’s what happens when the 850 and SFC low track to our west. Even the coldest of air masses gets scoured right out. If the storm takes that track, it will 150% flip. Only chance models are wrong is if they are all missing an earlier / further south coastal handoff. Doubtful

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s precipitating to the NM/MX border and it’s 19F with a wedged arctic high.  Hard to believe we may hit 6 inches.  Something seems off about that.  It’s fine but just not the blockbuster I had imagined.  Maybe all the guidance is wrong.  

Let’s hope it’s all wrong and we get wrecked with 20+. Not likely, but one can certainly pray.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Trough amplified too far west. Hard to believe this isn’t all snow but that’s what happens when the 850 and SFC low track to our west. Even the coldest of air masses gets scoured right out. If the storm takes that track, it will 150% flip. Only chance models are wrong is if they are all missing an earlier / further south coastal handoff. Doubtful

I know it’s just a tough one to swallow when you see that moisture fetch .  But here we are.  19/-3. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Scraff said:

Let’s hope it’s all wrong and we get wrecked with 20+. Not likely, but one can certainly pray.

It’s cold so funny things can happen.  If it was 40 right now I’d be asleep.  

[yoda]

18z GFS and UKIE please to go

[yoda]

18z ukie flips DC metro around 17z

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS: please be correct!!! At Church, I am praying.

If the GFS is right, there's DC 10.  8.5 snow 1.5 sleet

[yoda]

 

[jayyy]

Thinking that’s a solid 8-10” on the gfs and Ukie for the metros

[stormtracker]

Just now, yoda said:

18z ukie flips DC metro around 17z

whoa.  Now I can get behind that.  NAMs/Mesos are prob gonna handle the changover better tho

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

whoa.  Now I can get behind that.  NAMs/Mesos are prob gonna handle the changover better tho

15z 

 

 

18z