stormtracker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z. Why can't this be right one time 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z. Why can't this be right one time Is that time more or less in line with most other guidance except perhaps the NAM? Certainly the heavier precip up to the time we flip is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z. Why can't this be right one time It can be, it looks similar to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Is that time more or less in line with most other guidance except perhaps the NAM? Certainly the heavier precip up to the time we flip is better. Just comparing it against the NAM. Haven't really checked against anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS has snow for DC north still at 15z. Why can't this be right one time What if it is...the people that think the nam is right are inherently negative about everything in their lives 1 1 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago If you look at the radar stormtracker posted. Precip looks to be moving ESE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Man, just give me that 16-18z changeover the gfs has 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago That's a snowy run. Love to see the maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Regardless of precip type, there’s a ton of qpf coming our way. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: That's a snowy run. Love to see the maps. Gfs was actually colder. N/W crew gets taken to the impound lot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, mappy said: Regardless of precip type, there’s a ton of qpf coming our way. We REALLY need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago GFS around 8-10" through 18Z, according to TT 10:1 maps? That may be a little while after a flip but it's close to that time. Certainly after that it's sleet. (ETA: Talking about the DC-Balt metro corridor) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, RickinBaltimore said: We REALLY need that. Gfs has been consistent in qpf total for my backyard for days 1.2-1.4 range. Yes, it’s gonna sleet, just wanna squeeze as much fluff out that qpf as I can before it mixes lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WB 18Z GFS: please be correct!!! At Church, I am praying. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 54 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z ICON snowfall is an improvement. Probably sleet accumulate after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just give me 6"... I will take all the sleet after. 6" of snow before flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Neither they both suck Appreciate the brutal honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I hope I get at least 8 inches before any change over. And I mean a real 8 inches, not what I have my current wife thinking 8 inches is 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, yoda said: Just give me 6"... I will take all the sleet after. 6" of snow before flip. It’s precipitating to the NM/MX border and it’s 19F with a wedged arctic high. Hard to believe we may hit 6 inches. Something seems off about that. It’s fine but just not the blockbuster I had imagined. Maybe all the guidance is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago It’s precipitating to the NM/MX border and it’s 19F with a wedged arctic high. Hard to believe we may hit 6 inches. Something seems off about that. It’s fine but just not the blockbuster I had imagined. Maybe all the guidance is wrong. Trough amplified too far west. Hard to believe this isn’t all snow but that’s what happens when the 850 and SFC low track to our west. Even the coldest of air masses gets scoured right out. If the storm takes that track, it will 150% flip. Only chance models are wrong is if they are all missing an earlier / further south coastal handoff. Doubtful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s precipitating to the NM/MX border and it’s 19F with a wedged arctic high. Hard to believe we may hit 6 inches. Something seems off about that. It’s fine but just not the blockbuster I had imagined. Maybe all the guidance is wrong. Let’s hope it’s all wrong and we get wrecked with 20+. Not likely, but one can certainly pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Trough amplified too far west. Hard to believe this isn’t all snow but that’s what happens when the 850 and SFC low track to our west. Even the coldest of air masses gets scoured right out. If the storm takes that track, it will 150% flip. Only chance models are wrong is if they are all missing an earlier / further south coastal handoff. Doubtful I know it’s just a tough one to swallow when you see that moisture fetch . But here we are. 19/-3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Scraff said: Let’s hope it’s all wrong and we get wrecked with 20+. Not likely, but one can certainly pray. It’s cold so funny things can happen. If it was 40 right now I’d be asleep. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z GFS and UKIE please to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z ukie flips DC metro around 17z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS: please be correct!!! At Church, I am praying. If the GFS is right, there's DC 10. 8.5 snow 1.5 sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Thinking that’s a solid 8-10” on the gfs and Ukie for the metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, yoda said: 18z ukie flips DC metro around 17z whoa. Now I can get behind that. NAMs/Mesos are prob gonna handle the changover better tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, stormtracker said: whoa. Now I can get behind that. NAMs/Mesos are prob gonna handle the changover better tho 15z 18z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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