Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[mitchnick]

Looking at p-type radars, Euro and Gfs looking spot on with the snow/sleet line along the southern TN border at 7am.

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty good radar here and had sectors for close-up views. It's a small screen on mobile until you turn your phone sideways. 

https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/us/

That's an impressive expansion of precip!!

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yep, that’s what I’ve been watching for the past two days to know if a model will be north or south. That said, doesn’t really help us pick out what is more likely! 

36 hours out. Euro should be dominant with synoptic evolution!  But yeah, sometimes even the champ can get beat. 

[Weather Will]

12Z runs about to begin.  Will Ji have the runs or will the fun times roll in?!!!!!  WB 12Z HRRR

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

12Z runs about to begin.  Will Ji have the runs or will the fun times roll in?!!!!!

i have the runs waiting for the runs.  7/-8

[eyewall]

Work made me leave RDU to get out of the significant Ice area so I am in Sterling, VA for this one. Last night the forecast low was originally 14F and it is 8F so verifying a little colder which is always good. 

[Roger Ramjet]

Low of 3 here.

[WeatherShak]

Just read an interesting observation from Texas/Dallas Fort Worth area where temps are reported lower than initially modeled. They’re receiving frozen where they weren’t expecting it. Not sure what it means for us down range, but someone in here mentioned due to the flat nature of the pattern that anything we see out west may translate downstream.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

36 hours out. Euro should be dominant with synoptic evolution!  But yeah, sometimes even the champ can get beat. 

So we can probably discount the NAMs? I know they handle warm air aloft better than the other models and I would assume that is due to a better ability to know the wind field aloft so why in this case would we trust a global over them?

[poolz1]

Currently 1039.6mb and continuing to creep up.  Pretty rare with a storm approaching especially with a high the is entrenched and not flying off the coast of Maine.

[Solution Man]

Snow in Dallas this morning, cold air underdone there

[WeatherShak]

Snow in Dallas this morning, cold air underdone there

I just mentioned that two posts ago!

[aldie 22]

So what if a big chunk of the sleet actually falls as low ratio snow? That would be cool huh

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

I just mentioned that two posts ago!

Our post hit the same time, we both see it

[baltosquid]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So we can probably discount the NAMs? I know they handle warm air aloft better than the other models and I would assume that is due to a better ability to know the wind field aloft so why in this case would we trust a global over them?

One of the big differences is a not insignificantly stronger 850mb low on the NAM… I feel like I’d trust the euro more on low placements and strength. Temp profile goes to NAM if those are pretty much the same but they aren’t in this case. Also I feel like I trust the euro QPF over the NAM. But I haven’t been looking at these models as long as many of the people here…

[GreyHat]

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So we can probably discount the NAMs? I know they handle warm air aloft better than the other models and I would assume that is due to a better ability to know the wind field aloft so why in this case would we trust a global over them?

My chickenshit answer is to not toss them completely. If the euro and NAM stay apart at 12z, take a 70/30 or maybe 60/40 split favoring the euro?

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

So what if a big chunk of the sleet actually falls as low ratio snow? That would be cool huh

Im actually being serious wasn't there a storm a few years back that was supposed to transition to sleet but didn't as fast...I can see that happening in some places 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

I just mentioned that two posts ago!

I reviewed both posts and he said it better.  Although yours was solid too.  Tough call.  7/-8

[SnowenOutThere]

Anyone see the 6z HRRR? I think it is by far its best run yet for us and now the best model output of everything I've seen recently. Will see if its 12z comes back to reality.

[GreyHat]

[Ji]

Im actually being serious wasn't there a storm a few years back that was supposed to transition to sleet but didn't as fast...I can see that happening in some places 

Feb 2015?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Anyone see the 6z HRRR? I think it is by far its best run yet for us and now the best model output of everything I've seen recently. Will see if its 12z comes back to reality.

Just woke up and JFC it gives me 12". 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Im actually being serious wasn't there a storm a few years back that was supposed to transition to sleet but didn't as fast...I can see that happening in some places 

I think there’s definitely a chance that transition frame on models from snow to sleet is more of a low ratio snow hour if the warm nose ends up being thin. Eventually it will change for sure but could eke out more snow that way. More likely the further north you are. At some point the changeover line will move more NE/ENE and places along it at that phase of the storm probably fare better in terms of getting a true mix rather than a full changeover.

[WeatherShak]

I reviewed both posts and he said it better.  Although yours was solid too.  Tough call.  7/-8

I was just excited we both noticed it! His was more succinct! Cheers!

[mitchnick]

Flow right out of the eastern equatorial Pacific. 

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/large

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, WeatherShak said:

I was just excited we both noticed it! His was more succinct! Cheers!

Kind of funny how they hit at same time. I was writing when yours hit and didn’t see it. I guess great minds think alike. It will be fun today to track the storm’s evolution, and try to figure how it translates upstream. This is what the hobby is all about and we are lucky to have red taggers break it down for us.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z HRRR snow breaking out 2am Sunday; 4,

[WeatherShak]

Im actually being serious wasn't there a storm a few years back that was supposed to transition to sleet but didn't as fast...I can see that happening in some places 

Yes- Ji is right below. In my 15 years in Washington, we’re good at busting low, but in unique/complex setups (like now) we have busted high a few times.

[GreyHat]