January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[nj2va]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Can someone post the qpf maps to compare 18z to 00z

 

00z

18z

[TowsonWeather]

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's pretty much a hold. The temps are fine. It is just a touch drier?

A hold? 

It's noticeably more snow south and east - and it looks a lot like (you ready for this?) the GFS at this point.

[Wetbulbs88]

In no way was this a hold for DC. Significant shift toward a snowier solution.

The models could be underestimating the CAD signature which was at least common historically. Not sure about now. 

[TowsonWeather]

23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its not wetter. It is colder. Which is what I would expect as the models start to get a hold of this crazy arctic air mass. 

Maybe not wetter for Western areas, but DC and South Central MD are significantly wetter.

[nj2va]

NWS Pittsburgh just upgraded their watches to warnings.  I’d expect LWX to be next.

[Ji]

Dr no>dr u

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Maybe not wetter for Western areas, but DC and South Central MD are significantly wetter.

It’s significantly wetter for DC

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

It’s significantly wetter for DC

[goodwidp]

Latest map from LWX (12:41 am). The red-shaded 18"+ area is starting to creep into the favored N/W zones. 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, goodwidp said:

Latest map from LWX (12:41 am). The red-shaded 18"+ area is starting to creep into the favored N/W zones. 

 

 

 

Don't buy that one.

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, goodwidp said:

Latest map from LWX (12:41 am). The red-shaded 18"+ area is starting to creep into the favored N/W zones. 

 

 

 

I don't know what they're smoking, but I'm not mad at it, lol.

[goodwidp]

Ha. They just released an updated one at 1:17am that is a tad more conservative. 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, goodwidp said:

Ha. They just released an updated one at 1:17am that is a tad more conservative. 

 

It's called: Euro

They should have waited, but at least they corrected it quickly. 

[TowsonWeather]

2 minutes ago, goodwidp said:

Ha. They just released an updated one at 1:17am that is a tad more conservative. 

 

Weird - that looks more like what they've had all along. 

Did someone let the intern log into the map posting computer and he went rogue?

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It's called: Euro

They should have waited, but at least they corrected it quickly. 

I don't think LWX is updating their maps back and forth so dramatically based on individual GFS and Euro runs. Nothing explains that map with the more robust totals...it's weird.

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Weird - that looks more like what they've had all along. 

Did someone let the intern log into the map posting computer and he went rogue?

The first graphic is the whole event. The one with a little less is through 7pm Sunday. 

 

[goodwidp]

I'm just now noticing that the two maps have different titles ("Event Total Snowfall Accumulation" vs "Expected Snowfall: Official NWS Forecast") so perhaps they're using separate data. 

[mitchnick]

Frankly, there's plenty of time for this to trend, one way or the other. Admittedly, it's sad to see how, in general terms, it's turning into an old fashioned "Niña north" event. For that reason, odds favor a slow trend north imho. Maybe this one will be different. I hope. Either way, I'm done for the evening. 

[Nomz]

The more agressive map is the one in the “Local Winter Key Messages” while the other one is the autogenerated “Day 0-3 Snow and Range of Possibilities.”

Usually the Key Messages one is more conservative and more accurate though, so I’m not sure what’s going on.

[Jebman]

Hey guys, its only 30 more pages before we start up the 

January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 3.

Let's do this! Let's will this one home!

We got this!

[Amped]

17 minutes ago, goodwidp said:

Ha. They just released an updated one at 1:17am that is a tad more conservative. 

 

Why is it changing every 10 minutes?

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Why is it changing every 10 minutes?

Their meteorologists are probably exhausted, too.

Or, someone may have hacked into the computers there and are about to change the forecast to five feet of snow for the entire sub.......

[MDsnowPRO]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Why is it changing every 10 minutes?

Two different maps, one through 7pm Sunday and one through 7am Monday 

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Why is it changing every 10 minutes?

Like I said, the “Expected Total: Official NWS Forecast” map is 100% computer generated. I think it runs every 10 min, iirc it was :02, :12 up in NWS BOX.

[AU74]

17 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

The first graphic is the whole event. The one with a little less is through 7pm Sunday. 

 

Which means the delta between the two is how much they expect from 00z - 12z Monday.

[EHoffman]

FWIW LWX is also predicted a not-insignificant amount of ice accretion for the metros-SE

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Their meteorologists are probably exhausted, too.

Or, someone may have hacked into the computers there and are about to change the forecast to five feet of snow for the entire sub.......

Jeb....what did you do????

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Jeb....what did you do????

shhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Like I said, the “Expected Total: Official NWS Forecast” map is 100% computer generated. I think it runs every 10 min, iirc it was :02, :12 up in NWS BOX.

That's absurd. Computer generated is fine but every 10 minutes? Gonna confuse people.

[Ruin]

9 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said:

Two different maps, one through 7pm Sunday and one through 7am Monday 

also now one 2 models show it snowing in north md and south pa till like early afternoon mon a lot longer then before