January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[EHoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Noon is the time we prob flip.  This is a win at this point.

12+ hours of dumping at 18 degrees what's not to love?

[Warm Nose]

Gonna have to see the Detroit snow maps first 

[balltermen]

2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

[Nomz]

Huge win DC-RIC. Pulls a good chunk of VA out of the gutter.

[ravensrule]

Just now, bncho said:

Euro 18z vs 0z

Better down South but a carbon copy for up here. 

[balltermen]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

y'all are impatient asf... post the pretty snow maps when it's done.

it's good to have them incrementally given the changeover. otherwise i'd agree 

[clskinsfan]

It's pretty much a hold. The temps are fine. It is just a touch drier?

[Amped]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro 18z vs 0z

Better for i95 and SE. Brings a lot less panic.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro 18z vs 0z

Love to see that spread east with the initial thump of precip being heavier and snow. I think at this point we want a more amped up storm and just bank on that as our floor and ceiling. 

[bncho]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It's pretty much a hold. The temps are fine. It is just a touch drier?

It's wetter, there's like 0.1" more QPF than 18z

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro 18z vs 0z

The Euro’s pretty much locked in just gonna be small ticks here and there.

[Steve25]

I don’t want to trigger anyone with this question but do the models factor virga into the totals? I know the dew point will be very low going into the onset

[baltosquid]

We abscond. I think at this point, just hope we juice the WAA. I expect the GFS to cave in the morning or by noon. WAA+++ seems like the only realistic path to double digits for the metros, both from just quantity but also maybe we can sneak some duration off of really good rates.

[Warm Nose]

I’d call that a hold. It’s gonna mix but not after a good thump.

[ravensrule]

Just now, bncho said:

It's wetter, there's like 0.1" more QPF than 18z

Not in Baltimore, and way less by the M/D line. 

[balltermen]

Just now, Steve25 said:

I don’t want to trigger anyone with this question but do the models factor virga into the totals? I know the dew point will be very low going into the onset

yes 

[baltosquid]

Just now, Steve25 said:

I don’t want to trigger anyone with this question but do the models factor virga into the totals? I know the dew point will be very low going into the onset

That should be accounted for by pretty much all the major models as I understand it. Now, could they be wrong? Sure!

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's wetter, there's like 0.1" more QPF than 18z

Its not wetter. It is colder. Which is what I would expect as the models start to get a hold of this crazy arctic air mass. 

[Chris78]

Can someone post the qpf maps to compare 18z to 00z

 

[pazzo83]

7 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I don’t want to trigger anyone with this question but do the models factor virga into the totals? I know the dew point will be very low going into the onset

you won't lose much to virga - the heavier precip will saturate the column pretty quickly

[Jebman]

36 minutes ago, bncho said:

Here's my two cents.

I've heard this hobby is exhausting for a lot of y'all. It hasn't gotten to me yet, maybe 'cause I'm still youthful, but if you're staying up for the 0z runs you're likely not getting more than six hours of sleep. That's awful for mental and physical health. Some of y'all should sleep in—0z ain't gonna change one bit whether you see it or not—so get that extra two hours of sleep.

 

Bncho is right.

Besides, the storm is gonna get its act all together and wallop us all.

Hey you haven't truly lived, until you go to bed early during the height of the revitalized storm and sleep right through the historic death band!

 

[Ji]

Its not wetter. It is colder. Which is what I would expect as the models start to get a hold of this crazy arctic air mass. 

It’s wetter with the snow but same temp

[nj2va]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Can someone post the qpf maps to compare 18z to 00z

 

00z

18z

[TowsonWeather]

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's pretty much a hold. The temps are fine. It is just a touch drier?

A hold? 

It's noticeably more snow south and east - and it looks a lot like (you ready for this?) the GFS at this point.

[Wetbulbs88]

In no way was this a hold for DC. Significant shift toward a snowier solution.

The models could be underestimating the CAD signature which was at least common historically. Not sure about now. 

[TowsonWeather]

23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Its not wetter. It is colder. Which is what I would expect as the models start to get a hold of this crazy arctic air mass. 

Maybe not wetter for Western areas, but DC and South Central MD are significantly wetter.

[nj2va]

NWS Pittsburgh just upgraded their watches to warnings.  I’d expect LWX to be next.

[Ji]

Dr no>dr u

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said:

Maybe not wetter for Western areas, but DC and South Central MD are significantly wetter.

It’s significantly wetter for DC

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

It’s significantly wetter for DC