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January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

mappy

By mappy,
in Mid Atlantic

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Temps at a first glance, but I have a hard time thinking it would be off that much ?

    Big warm layers can easily reside in between those two levels.   Some of the forecast soundings I have seen for this event show that exact scenario.    The NAM precip type code is rock solid, based on the forecasted temperature profile.

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Ellinwood
Ellinwood

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I know everyone loves the GFS, but currently it is not in-line with a majority of the guidance, so if I was on the desk, I’d be doing a forecast that was non-GFS based.  Current model diagnostic would

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21).    Thanks

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf

The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. 

I'll stop now. :weenie:

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully :lol:

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully :lol:

        Yes, but we're still going to get 2 years of the FV3-based RRFS in operations.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

RGEM cold press at 700 is much better on 0z. It can't hold off the surge down here, but when comparing up in PA and NE it's obvious. Not saying it's going to change anything in future runs - just an observation that the cold is much "pressier" in the 0z.

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring.

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