stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RGEM/ICON look ok, but we're about to flip shortly after 12zOne guy says icon is great one says it okay 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: 8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho) Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: 8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7 And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: LMAO! Somehow I am still holding on. This is becoming a disaster at this point. Back to the banter thread with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. I'll stop now. I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp ) About the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp ) i know right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Ji said: One guy says icon is great one says it okay It's subjective dude, come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, winter_warlock said: i know right! If I don't say otherwise, just assume its the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: It's subjective dude, come on It’s also location based 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, Ji said: One guy says icon is great one says it okay Depends on where ya live 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully Yes, but we're still going to get 2 years of the FV3-based RRFS in operations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Sleet in the teens/20s could be fun 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: If I don't say otherwise, just assume its the same Ahh ok gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Sleet in the teens/20s could be fun I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH RGEM cold press at 700 is much better on 0z. It can't hold off the surge down here, but when comparing up in PA and NE it's obvious. Not saying it's going to change anything in future runs - just an observation that the cold is much "pressier" in the 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Anybody still laughing at Dr. U? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Anybody still laughing at Dr. U?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 SREFs for DCA Look good https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, wxmeddler said: Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring. So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Ji said: ? He said two days ago he would rather be in Chicago.......Well yeah. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Anybody still laughing at Dr. U? Let's hope he likes next weekend better 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Anybody still laughing at Dr. U? Guess we will see what they get. They aren't even under an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Ji said: ? Dr. U said he'd rather be in Chicago. Chicago has now gone from zero snow Sunday to more snow than us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, AlexD1990 said: Let's hope he likes next weekend better Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 And here come the cliff divers ... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol I don't understand the comments about the ENSO state for a system within 72 hours. The ENSO is helpful for long-range guesstimating, not short-term anything. Is it less likely to have a MECS in a Niña? Yes. If the correct ingredients are there for a MECS, and it happens to be in a Niña, will it still happen? Yes. ENSO only affects the odds of the players coming to the table. Once the players are on the table, the atmosphere cares not if it's Niña or Niño; a storm won't downtrend or uptrend solely because of the ENSO state. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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