January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Temps at a first glance, but I have a hard time thinking it would be off that much ?

    Big warm layers can easily reside in between those two levels.   Some of the forecast soundings I have seen for this event show that exact scenario.    The NAM precip type code is rock solid, based on the forecasted temperature profile.

[stormtracker]

8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7

[Ji]

RGEM/ICON look ok, but we're about to flip shortly after 12z

One guy says icon is great one says it okay

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho)

Approx. the same or even better than 18Z, I believe?

[stormtracker]

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

8" on the ICON before we flip (Kuchera tho). 10:1 is like 6/7

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

LMAO! Somehow I am still holding on. This is becoming a disaster at this point. Back to the banter thread with me. 

[wxmeddler]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf

The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. 

I'll stop now. 

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

About the same

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

i know right!  

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

One guy says icon is great one says it okay

It's subjective dude, come on

[stormtracker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

i know right!  

If I don't say otherwise, just assume its the same

[DDweatherman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's subjective dude, come on

It’s also location based

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

One guy says icon is great one says it okay

Depends on where ya live 

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I was aware that the FV3 based RRFS got absolutely shellacked in testing with offices and centers. It originally also supposed to go to 72hrs only and there was outcry of loosing the extra 12 hrs the NAM provided. They *points vaguely* folded on both thankfully 

        Yes, but we're still going to get 2 years of the FV3-based RRFS in operations.

[stormtracker]

Sleet in the teens/20s could be fun

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

If I don't say otherwise, just assume its the same

Ahh ok gotcha 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sleet in the teens/20s could be fun

I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver)

[mattie g]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

RGEM cold press at 700 is much better on 0z. It can't hold off the surge down here, but when comparing up in PA and NE it's obvious. Not saying it's going to change anything in future runs - just an observation that the cold is much "pressier" in the 0z.

[clskinsfan]

Anybody still laughing at Dr. U?

[Ji]

Anybody still laughing at Dr. U?

?

[Random Chaos]

SREFs for DCA Look good https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

RGEM is just a massive sleet bomb with a primary into OH

Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Yeahhh... The AI's, Euro, and MPAS based cores seem to be leaning that way. In a way the coastal "low" is just pressure falls along the warm front due to the insane isentropic lift occurring.

So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then...

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

?

He said two days ago he would rather be in Chicago.......Well yeah.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anybody still laughing at Dr. U?

Let's hope he likes next weekend better 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anybody still laughing at Dr. U?

Guess we will see what they get. They aren't even under an advisory. 

[feloniousq]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

?

Dr. U said he'd rather be in Chicago.  Chicago has now gone from zero snow Sunday to more snow than us.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

Let's hope he likes next weekend better 

Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol

[Warm Nose]

And here come the cliff divers ...