CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: I would be interested to know what they are looking at to make that prediction. I haven't seen the midshore above 12" on any model run recently. GFS and UKie have been close but cant imagine they are riding with that combo lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, peribonca said: That'll make some hard sleet pellets Very hard!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, CAPE said: GFS and UKie have been close but cant imagine they are riding with that combo lol. I put in our southern md subforum their rationale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Sorry but this is insanely low Yup. Going to go with the 3k because it seems to be better at thermals, but mainly because it gives me more snow. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Terpeast said: Thanks for pointing that out. The 12k and 3k might as well be two different models. May sound like a weenie, but I’d lean more on the 3k within 48 hours of onset. 3K does a great job with precip type at game time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good. That is a much better thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good. That is a much better thump.It would probably be fine but it barely starts in DC until like 6am. Storm is gonna start Monday at this rate. This was supposed to start tomorrow night at one point! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment. It's much colder and has us snow at 12z. Sleet line is down just south of RIC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It would probably be fine but it barely starts in DC until like 6am. Storm is gonna start Monday at this rate. This was supposed to start tomorrow night at one point! It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment. Only goes out 60 hours but this gives an idea- 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's much colder and has us snow at 12z. Sleet line is down just south of RIC Wow that is alot colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. Yeah snow starts in DC before midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, that's a kick in the balls. BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out We will get nam'd tomorrow night 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. I may have blinked and missed things today but I thought we were supposed to wake up to more than 2” at 6am. I’m willing to cave to being wrong, though. Guess every flake sticks even if it’s not heavy from midnight-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Sorry but this is insanely low the warm layer is around 750mb. if it's shallow enough and we have rates maybe many will hold on to snow longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay. They mean the heavier bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I may have blinked and missed things today but I thought we were supposed to wake up to more than 2” at 6am. I’m willing to cave to being wrong, though. Guess every flake sticks even if it’s not heavy from midnight-6. Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’m going to pretend the FV3 is good. That is a much better thump. Such a flawed core (Sorry to all those at EMC, you all do great work), MPAS for the win. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says. Fair - WxBell 10:1 maps have about half of that so I guess it likes the ratios, which isn’t crazy. Probably over analyzing the FV3 at this point. I’ll say you win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Thanks for pointing that out. The 12k and 3k might as well be two different models. May sound like a weenie, but I’d lean more on the 3k within 48 hours of onset. They differ in more than just resolution, so they effectively are two different models (even though they have obvious commonalities). As you said, though, the 3 km is a far superior model, except for when it deepens hurricanes down to 850 mb. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Somehow the column between ground/850/700 is -8 to -2 and it is showing sleet?? Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, wxdude64 said: Somehow the column between ground/850/700 is -2 to -8 and it is showing sleet?? Right. Are you looking at the actual sounding, or just the temperatures at those levels?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: Such a flawed core (Sorry to all those at EMC, you all do great work), MPAS for the win. Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. I'll stop now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, high risk said: Are you looking at the actual sounding, or just the temperatures at those levels?? Temps at a first glance, but I have a hard time thinking it would be off that much ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Somehow the column between ground/850/700 is -8 to -2 and it is showing sleet?? Right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Icon coming in colder and clocking dc at hour 60 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RGEM/ICON look ok, but we're about to flip shortly after 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Temps at a first glance, but I have a hard time thinking it would be off that much ? Big warm layers can easily reside in between those two levels. Some of the forecast soundings I have seen for this event show that exact scenario. The NAM precip type code is rock solid, based on the forecasted temperature profile. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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