psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Moving on... Anyone have thoughts on the RGEM and if trends were good or bad? Looks similar to 12z ggem 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: And that’s what basically every other run has. Icon has a cleaner, single northern shortwave that perfectly phases. It’s quite beautiful actually if you ignore how it Fs us over lol. I feel like models over amp a lot of storms at this range and they slowly start to go the other way closer to the event sometimes. Let’s see if we start to turn back tomorrow. Also that recon data should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Icon basically has a perfect, full phase of the northern stream and the Baja low. It’s textbook. We’ve only seen that on like 1-2 runs of varsity models yet for this storm? Seems pretty unlikely with how much is going on. I’ll take 6” and taint as the fail scenario. Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So if the 18z runs do not look like ICON how would that reduce the likelihood of a rug pull? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS is rolling, I don't see any changes through hour 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between. We can always find a way to fail. We kinda been good at that the last 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I feel like models over amp a lot of storms at this range and they slowly start to go the other way closer to the event sometimes. Let’s see if we start to turn back tomorrow. Also that recon data should help. the do sometimes but there is still a tendency to amp more the final 36-48 hours so we need this to stop stat and get maybe a bit of a south trend to give us room for what is likely to be a bit of bleeding north at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TSSN+ said: We can always find a way to fail. We kinda been good at that the last 10 years. Well, the 12Z GEFS was bad too, but there are too many models now. As usual we won't have a consensus until 12Z Friday/ 48 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between. RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Weather Will said: Well, the 12Z GEFS was bad too, but there are too many models now. As usual we won't have a consensus until 12Z Friday/ 48 hours out. Bad how? Most those members missed us to the south so def was not amped on there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix. I was gonna say - it looks like it starts to phase before getting on shore. Wxbell is behind, but hr71 looks primed (in a good way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix. I don’t expect it. Just that’s the only way I can see this going completely devastatingly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Thru 48 on gfs heights little lower out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So far, nothing huge changewise on the GFS at 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far, nothing huge changewise on the GFS at 66 This is the point of no return on the run if it’s no phase, meaning we do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 If anything, GFS seems a little less "connected" out west and s/w just a smidge further SW, but not by much 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 AIGFS with a bump north. Will check temps when available. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: If anything, GFS seems a little less "connected" out west and s/w just a smidge further SW, but not by much Pressures little higher over us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The GFS.... ...is Randy's show. But it looks OK so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: This is the point of no return on the run if it’s no phase Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, bncho said: The GFS.... ...is Randy's show. But it looks OK so far. It's not. We all get it around the same time. Chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much Yep need it later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much Not sure I love the Ridge being more stout at 54 and continuing that theme here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 ICON north at 18z. RRFS north at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I think the 18z GFS will have even less NS interaction with our SW (aka more "suppressed") 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t expect it. Just that’s the only way I can see this going completely devastatingly wrong. So what would your “we’re in the clear” point be when it comes to model runs not showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Double barrel highs 1044 and 1045 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 A bit wetter so far vs 12z coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: AIGFS with a bump north. Will check temps when available. 12z was really south though. 850s never get north of the northern neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ai was good. Looks to stay mostly snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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