January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Moving on...

Anyone have thoughts on the RGEM and if trends were good or bad? 

Looks similar to 12z ggem 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

And that’s what basically every other run has. Icon has a cleaner, single northern shortwave that perfectly phases. It’s quite beautiful actually if you ignore how it Fs us over lol.

I feel like models over amp a lot of storms at this range and they slowly start to go the other way closer to the event sometimes. Let’s see if we start to turn back tomorrow. Also that recon data should help. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Icon basically has a perfect, full phase of the northern stream and the Baja low. It’s textbook. We’ve only seen that on like 1-2 runs of varsity models yet for this storm? Seems pretty unlikely with how much is going on. I’ll take 6” and taint as the fail scenario.

Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

So if the 18z runs do not look like ICON how would that reduce the likelihood of a rug pull?

[IUsedToHateCold]

GFS is rolling, I don't see any changes through hour 18

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between. 

We can always find a way to fail. We kinda been good at that the last 10 years.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I feel like models over amp a lot of storms at this range and they slowly start to go the other way closer to the event sometimes. Let’s see if we start to turn back tomorrow. Also that recon data should help. 

the do sometimes but there is still a tendency to amp more the final 36-48 hours so we need this to stop stat and get maybe a bit of a south trend to give us room for what is likely to be a bit of bleeding north at the end. 

[Weather Will]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

We can always find a way to fail. We kinda been good at that the last 10 years.

Well, the 12Z GEFS was bad too, but there are too many models now.  As usual we won't have a consensus until 12Z Friday/ 48 hours out.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing shows this right now so this is purely me thinking “what could go wrong” and the only way I see Maryland not getting at least a warning level event from this would be if the wave splits and there is a front runner WAA wave that targets VA south of us then the main wave amplifies and cuts and we end up in between. 

RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Well, the 12Z GEFS was bad too, but there are too many models now.  As usual we won't have a consensus until 12Z Friday/ 48 hours out.

Bad how? Most those members missed us to the south so def was not amped on there. 

[T. August]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix.

I was gonna say - it looks like it starts to phase before getting on shore. Wxbell is behind, but hr71 looks primed (in a good way).

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM looks awful out west vs what we want and it still looks like it’s going to crush us before mix.

I don’t expect it. Just that’s the only way I can see this going completely devastatingly wrong. 

[TSSN+]

Thru 48 on gfs heights little lower out front. 

[stormtracker]

So far, nothing huge changewise on the GFS at 66

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, nothing huge changewise on the GFS at 66

This is the point of no return on the run if it’s no phase, meaning we do ok

[stormtracker]

If anything, GFS seems a little less "connected" out west and s/w just a smidge further SW, but not by much

[LP08]

AIGFS with a bump north.  Will check temps when available.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

If anything, GFS seems a little less "connected" out west and s/w just a smidge further SW, but not by much

Pressures little higher over us as well. 

[bncho]

The GFS....

...is Randy's show. But it looks OK so far.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

This is the point of no return on the run if it’s no phase

Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

The GFS....

...is Randy's show. But it looks OK so far.

It's not.  We all get it around the same time.  Chime in

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much

Yep need it later

[Buddy1987]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh, it's gonna phase and interact...we're just trying to figure out how much

Not sure I love the Ridge being more stout at 54 and continuing that theme here.

[stormy]

ICON north at 18z.  RRFS north at 18z

[SnowenOutThere]

I think the 18z GFS will have even less NS interaction with our SW (aka more "suppressed")

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t expect it. Just that’s the only way I can see this going completely devastatingly wrong. 

So what would your “we’re in the clear” point be when it comes to model runs not showing that?

[Solution Man]

Double barrel highs 1044 and 1045

[stormtracker]

A bit wetter so far vs 12z coming in

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

AIGFS with a bump north.  Will check temps when available.

12z was really south though. 850s never get north of the northern neck 

[TSSN+]

Ai was good. Looks to stay mostly snow.