January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[LP08]

I do like seeing the trough more positively tilted out west through 60

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Almost a negative tilt over AZ on the NAM at 60hr lol

Better confluence than 12z Nam run will help. Still lower heights at 60hrs vs 12z Nam.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not sure what he's seeing tbh

I agree. I feel like streams aren't interacting as much and the dome of confluence is pushing down more so at the 57 hr mark.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Better confluence than 12z Nam run will help. Still lower heights at 60hrs vs 12z Nam.

Still at 69hrs

[psuhoffman]

Chuck was comparing the 18z NAM to the 12z GFS, which is apples to oranges IMO but he isn't looking at what the rest of us are looking at...which explains the "what is he seeing" stuff.  The 18z NAM is less phased and has more confluence in front than the 12z NAM through 60 hours.  

[stormtracker]

So far, looks slightly flatter out front and better confluence if anything 

[yoda]

72 18z NAM

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Still at 69hrs

and 78

[LP08]

All sleet south of the snow vs. the freezing rain seen by other models.

[stormtracker]

I mean, yeah..NAM blah blah...but I dunno.  Looks good to me?

[yoda]

78 18z NAM 

 

 

 

[TSSN+]

Better! More west to east  and not sw to ne shield 

[clskinsfan]

Precip shield responded to the confluence and is slightly south as well. 

[yoda]

SN at DCA around 03z Sunday 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

All sleet south of the snow vs. the freezing rain seen by other models.

Yeah, called this out at 12z as well. Dunno how much to think about this since NWS seems to clearly think there will be some FRZA, but sleet would be a much better outcome for lots of folks down south.

[stormtracker]

Chuck been real quiet since that 60hr panel drop....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still a 1042mb High pressure in NY state on the NAM at 84hr. That's a tough wall for this low pressure to climb against. 

[GreyHat]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

DC right at the end of the storm. Talk about riding the line.

 

Delaware looks like rain for a time according to the picture.  This thing keeps coming NE. Isn't there that chance of more warm air aloft to bring this rain and ice further to DC and Baltimore? 

Neat how it went from one extreme to another.  No snow, to snow, to snow than ice, and now who knows. Seems PA, NJ will make out really good.

[mitchnick]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Precip shield responded to the confluence and is slightly south as well. 

As was the snow/ice line.

[Buddy1987]

Inside of 60 I actually think those were meaningful changes. You can see the trajectory of the precip shield also positively changed. That's a win at this juncture.

[yoda]

Just now, mitchnick said:

That's late!!!

hr 84

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Chuck been real quiet since that 60hr panel drop....

Was going to say the 84hr panel actually looks really good. The differences between the NAM and 12z GFS at 72hr in the Southwest are pretty extreme. Maybe the GFS starts phasing that sw energy sooner. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

hr 84

 

That is incoming crush job 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 12K NAM 1am Sunday. How many times have we wished we had cold air entrenched like this before onset of precipitation?!!!!

[umdterps29]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

DC right at the end of the storm. Talk about riding the line.

 

Right at the end of the storm? Doesn't that radar indicate there would still be many hours of precip left to go?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

All sleet south of the snow vs. the freezing rain seen by other models.

Once it's in range...I would trust the NAM over other guidance with the thermals and precip type zones associated with that.  Not at 84 hours...but once were close.  Especially the 3k.  It's the only thing I do trust the NAM with over other guidance.  

[soadforecasterx]

So why does this map show something different? 

[mitchnick]

At 84hrs on Nam, 534 Height line is thru Fredericksburg while Euro same time had it cutting thru DCA. We'll take all we can get.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

Right at the end of the storm? Doesn't that radar indicate there would still be many hours of precip left to go?

it's super light... DC starts to lose thermals at 1pm and only gets like .15 QPF after that.  95% of the precip falls before the thermals get problematic then hours and hours of very light freezing rain 

[WxUSAF]

Look at where that big northern shortwave enters the country around 78hrs. Much farther east than 12z. Continuing to 84hrs, part of the difference is speed, but it’s still east. I like that. Would like to see that same thing on the varsity models.