“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

Great read on the ice down south 

https://x.com/mattvanswol/status/2014897795627384836?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Roger Smith]

-32F in parts of eastern Ontario and -36F in n WI, this high is going to feed extreme cold into the storm until the coastal bombs (to some extent, not that robust) ... I am thinking 20-25 inch potential in parts of e MA and 15-20 across n half of CT. Think there will be some reductions by sleet near Long Island Sound and across se MA south of Plymouth to New Bedford. Even so, 10-12" before the change there. 

Remember that storm (think it was Dec 2020) when Binghamton NY had 40" -- I wonder if there will be a location that gets that sort of outcome with this one? I would think New England rather than upstate NY if so (probably not 40" but perhaps one local 30"). Not too far from ORH would be my guess as to where that might happen. 

[moneypitmike]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It’s a wall of precip moving north.. with easterly low level flow.

 

It's moving north.  Until it isn't.     

 

Unless we can manage things to come north another 50 miles (doubtful), the models all show my qpf being about 2/3 of what is happening in Mass.

[CoastalWx]

Reggie looked a hair cooler from 00z.

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

The 06z RRFS run, oh my.

Eye candy for those who were hoping for more qpf.

On an island--toss.

[Damage In Tolland]

Some of the mesos have a TSSN signal Sunday pm/ night from about west central CT on East . 

[Roger Smith]

This seems promising, 19:1 ratios in the first sampling of snow (Dodge City KS had 3.4" from 0.18" l.e.) This was with temperatures within 3 deg or zero F during the snowfall event. I would expect this to reduce to 16:1 over Midwest and 13:1 over interior northeast but maybe not that rapid a modification of rates. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of the mesos have a TSSN signal Sunday pm/ night from about west central CT on East . 

On the nose of the dryslot

[moneypitmike]

BOX shows all snow in PVD.  They do have sleet mixing in on the South Coast, but that isn't haven't impact on their forecasted totals.

[ROOSTA]

Just playing with the HRRR

12am. Monday.
Long way to go  

[moneypitmike]

I like this approach  to the BOX map.

[moneypitmike]

Here's GYX.   I really don't know what to think........not sure we can achieve those snow amounts on 2/3 of the qpf Mass is getting.

[ineedsnow]

6z Euro about the same as 0z maybe a very slight increase

 

[dendrite]

It was a little more amped. No real big moves though. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah slightly more amped and meh for Monday. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Euro about the same as 0z maybe a very slight increase

 

Increased in CT .

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Here's GYX.   I really don't know what to think........

You’re going to get a lot of snow would be the main message there

[ORH_wxman]

Looked like the thump was slightly better but Monday was more meh on that run

[CoastalWx]

  ticks can stop though. As it is probably mixes a bit with sleet or even drizzle/-ra to BOS as the big lift moves out. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It was a little more amped. No real big moves though. 

I have a question. For Monday, I understand that’s driven by the coastal low and the high-end snowfall possibility is obviously east of us. But what are you thinking It will be like on Monday? We should already have double digits by the morning so is it sort of a steady light to moderate snow off of that moist flow coming from the east? Or would there be banding all the way up this way from the coastal low.  
I appreciate your response and assume others can benefit as well from your sense of how this might evolve.

[moneypitmike]

Almost 36 hours to go before the snow starts in Maine.  Still time to change.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I have a question. For Monday, I understand that’s driven by the coastal low and the high-end snowfall possibility is obviously east of us. But what are you thinking It will be like on Monday? We should already have double digits by the morning so is it sort of a steady light to moderate snow off of that moist flow coming from the east? Or would there be banding all the way up this way from the coastal low.  
I appreciate your response and assume others can benefit as well from your sense of how this might evolve.

It’s more hang back mid level goodies as the upper trough approaches and eventually swings through Mon night. Probably high ratio dendritic aggregates (think clumps of dendrites that cling together). Usually it’s like a 3/4sm high end -SN but it accumulates really efficiently.

[Twitching Trucks]

Some of the mesos have a TSSN signal Sunday pm/ night from about west central CT on East . 

Total neophyte here, but I was under the impression this storm would have near the dynamics for thundersnow.


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[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s more hang back mid level goodies as the upper trough approaches and eventually swings through Mon night. Probably high ratio dendritic aggregates (think clumps of dendrites that cling together). Usually it’s like a 3/4sm high end -SN but it accumulates really efficiently.

Thank you. That sort of what I was thinking and that’s the kind of situation where we can end up with 17 or 18 inches of snow. I wish the heaviest stuff was happening during the day, but we can get a real heavy burst before sundown then wake up to a bunch of snow and light to moderate snow for good walks, and that is sort of thing that I like. Long walk in the woods with the dog and deep snow while snow is falling.

[BrianW]

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Twitching Trucks said:

Total neophyte here, but I was under the impression this storm would have near the dynamics for thundersnow.


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I didn’t really see that, but I guess can’t rule it out. 

[CoastalWx]

6z Ukie a little south and continues better for Monday. I wish I could trust it.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Twitching Trucks said:

Total neophyte here, but I was under the impression this storm would have near the dynamics for thundersnow.


.

The RRFS had it 

[Twitching Trucks]

Thank you. That sort of what I was thinking and that’s the kind of situation where we can end up with 17 or 18 inches of snow. I wish the heaviest stuff was happening during the day, but we can get a real heavy burst before sundown then wake up to a bunch of snow and light to moderate snow for good walks, and that is sort of thing that I like. Long walk in the woods with the dog and deep snow while snow is falling.

Over on the ME border 20 miles off the coast, this is the yup of set up that we do very well with. Coastal influence encroaching generally up to our doorstep gets us something banding and if we can keep P-type issues at bay, the snow stacks up. The slogging easterly flow snow Monday also adds up here with a little OE influence, and that tends to keep up all the way over toward CON, close to you. I think we’ll do well.


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[Lava Rock]

Here's GYX.   I really don't know what to think........not sure we can achieve those snow amounts on 2/3 of the qpf Mass is getting.

Believe it when i see it

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