“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Really good backed flow pike-north Monday

I need the 850 flow to save me, otherwise I'll be one of the lower amounts around with banding pinned inside of 128.

[NoCORH4L]

Trends aren't great for North of pike. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We tried to tell him…he wouldn’t listen.  He will be cleansed by brimstone and SNOW. 

Thou shall do 100 snow angels as you penitence.

[alex]

Completely unexpected today, very heavy snow atm!

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS may be a bit north of 6z

[ariof]

15 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

It's been a good ten years since Boston has been hit with anything like this and the new residents are in for a shock. Uber eats delays for days...

Huh? BOS had 2' in Jan 2022. Maybe didn't hit west of FIT-ORH-BDL but BOS certainly got it. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-28-29-2022

2018 had two storms with >12" of snow, Jan and Mar.

Before that, yes, you have to go back to 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Thats 18 to 30 for all of SNE probably a few more after hr 84 since it was still going.. we pray

I think I'd be like 13-15" that NAM run.

[dendrite]

AI goofus still paltry for New England

[dryslot]

12z GFS a tic or two north of 06z, Moneyshot Mike can sit back in his chair.

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, alex said:

Completely unexpected today, very heavy snow atm!

Sure looks like LES. Probably belongs in general Jan thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I think it’s done. I think it’s more likely to tick south than north from here.

Yea, like said speaking with you yesterday, there is a limit with PV pressing, west NAO block and 50/50 low.

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, ariof said:

Huh? BOS had 2' in Jan 2022. Maybe didn't hit west of FIT-ORH-BDL but BOS certainly got it. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-28-29-2022

2018 had two storms with >12" of snow, Jan and Mar.

Before that, yes, you have to go back to 2015.

Yeah that was somewhat similar as far as amounts go but this looking significantly bigger and much longer duration.  Not mention the cold after this one is long lasting. So no melting  really at all. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS slay

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

AI goofus still paltry for New England

But this is an example of where I think AI is just broadly spreading QPF rather than honing in on details. That’s a lot more QPF in NNE vs deterministic models and less in SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Trends aren't great for North of pike. 

I think they are for inside of 128.

[WxWatcher007]

Man, this is a cold powder event for everyone away from the coast. Single digit temperatures to start. 

GFS has me getting beyond -30 tonight. Snowing near zero. 

[CoastalWx]

Slight bump north and bump up ion QPF on GFS.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

GFS slay

Ended up pretty close to 06z run, maybe 10-15mi north with thermals

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think they are for inside of 128.

You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday. 

[DomNH]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, here we go....subby city.

The saggy subsidence boobs for the CT and MR valleys are definitely showing up on guidance. Assuming we may have to endure periods of baking soda under mediocre lift in subsidence. Thinking more like 10-15’’ here…still pretty good of course but don’t think we have much of a chance at the higher end totals. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But this is an example of where I think AI is just broadly spreading QPF rather than honing in on details. That’s a lot more QPF in NNE vs deterministic models and less in SNE.

Agreed. They did well sniffing out this storm but as we got within 72hrs I think we need to weigh them less heavily.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday. 

GFS onboard for Monday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO matches my forecast best RN.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ended up pretty close to 06z run, maybe 10-15mi north with thermals

Ya, minimal for most - but here it makes a difference. Was looking for a hold or 10-15mi shift south. 

[NoCORH4L]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think they are for inside of 128.

That's a tiny geographic area though. Hub Dave call of Cape Ann Jack looking likely.

[dryslot]

I think we had discussed the useful range right now for the AI models and were leaving that range going forward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday. 

Especially on EURO....I'm just nervous of wind backing more NE and 850 flow weakening or shifting.....I just want to avoid getting Dec 2003, PD II, Jan 2022ed...not asking for a jack, but just avoid getting 12" while surrounding areas have 20-30".

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, NoCORH4L said:

That's a tiny geographic area though. Hub Dave call of Cape Ann Jack looking likely.

ORH hills and inside 128, I should say...but EURO is insistent on that northern band, which bodes well for MRV.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially on EURO....I'm just nervous of wind backing more NE and 850 flow weakening or shifting.....I just want about getting Dec 2003, PD II, Jan 2022ed...not asking for a jack, but just avoid getting 12" while surrounding areas have 20-30".

I doubt this storm will have those types of crazy snowfall gradients. There will obviously be some enhanced areas but prob more like someone getting 19” or 20” versus 15” instead of 25-burgers 10 miles away from a foot. 

The massive thump should be relatively uniform 10-15” and then anything on top of that will probably be Monday onshore flow stuff. 

[ScituateMA]

I have a feeling Framingham-ORH-Wachusett is gonna put down some big numbers. Great day to ski WaWa