1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Euro does look a smidge more north 

[buckeye]

1 minute ago, OHweather said:

Yeah I agree those runs will be telling. All the other 12z models generally trended a bit slower with ejecting the Baja low too, but outside of the Euro which definitely bumped SE it wasn’t enough to overcome other trends that supported a more NW track on the other models. So there’s clearly a fair amount of sensitivity to relatively small changes with how that ejects out and phases. 

noticed that as well.    Also the northern stream is a little faster too which keeps the trough more positively tilted and you don't get time for a solid phase and a stronger primary.   Personally I wouldn't mind a 'tad' more phasing.   I don't mind smelling sleet and I'll even eat a little sleet if it results in a widespread hit for our sub.

[KokomoWX]

Euro still moving north...

[TimChgo9]

72 hours ago, S OH was in for maybe a couple of inches, according to the GFS, etc. Now we are on tap for 8? 10?  It’s been a fun storm to track for the last day or so.  

[andyhb]

Quote

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. "I'd rather be in Chicago"

Per MA sub-forum lol.

The synoptics here don't lie.

[buckeye]

probably tomorrow those watches will expand to the east coast and up more through OH and IN meaning almost 1/4 of the US mainland will be under a winterstorm watch or warning.   

[Stevo6899]

9 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Per MA sub-forum lol.

The synoptics here don't lie.

Yea you usually see these either miss the complete phase and slide more SE like the gfs, or you get a complete phase and wagons west. . More times than not, you get the former. West of apps or well east, no in-between track. Also the models struggle with phasing as we saw with the last storm that surprised the Detroit area and gave Toronto a foot plus. So many things have to go right timing wise so I'd guess we get more of a gfs track.

[Jackstraw]

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

probably tomorrow those watches will expand to the east coast and up more through OH and IN meaning almost 1/4 of the US mainland will be under a winterstorm watch or warning.   

My memory's not what it used to be by far but if they do get expanded N and NE has there ever been a time that much of the country was under winter storm watches/warnings at once?  Nearly 40 years by my recollection but what do I know lol.

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

My memory's not what it used to be by far but if they do get expanded N and NE has there ever been a time that much of the country was under winter storm watches/warnings at once?  Nearly 40 years by my recollection but what do I know lol.

 

February 2021, and possibly GHD 2011...

[buckeye]

Temps are gonna be a story, not so much for extreme record lows, rather the duration of the cold.   Flipping through the euro for mby, the period starting this Sunday til the end of it's run, (Feb 5), our highest temp is 20 degrees.   Just as strange, the lowest temp is like -10 which granted is probably a record for whichever day it occurs, but it's not really that crazy considering the snowpack we should have throughout that time frame.  Usually these cold waves that hit this time of year with a snow pack almost always have a few days with stupid cold that rival all time cold record, (Dec 1989  -18 and Jan 1994 -22).

The other thing with these types of periods is when the back breaks with the pattern, it's usually done for the winter.... (old man winter blows his load, then shuts the lights and goes to bed)

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Temps are gonna be a story, not so much for extreme record lows, rather the duration of the cold.   Flipping through the euro for mby, the period starting this Sunday til the end of it's run, (Feb 5), our highest temp is 20 degrees.   Just as strange, the lowest temp is like -10 which granted is probably a record for whichever day it occurs, but it's not really that crazy considering the snowpack we should have throughout that time frame.  Usually these cold waves that hit this time of year with a snow pack almost always have a few days with stupid cold that rival all time cold record, (Dec 1989  -18 and Jan 1994 -22).

The other thing with these types of periods is when the back breaks with the pattern, it's usually done for the winter.... (old man winter blows his load, then shuts the lights and goes to bed)

I’m the same.

[Powerball]

18z NAM's coming back SE.

[Baum]

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

18z NAM's coming back SE.

Be over Minneapolis this time tomorrow 

[DocATL]

18z NAM's coming back SE.

Don’t love that high placement.


.

[Baum]

Remember if you get a bad model run:

1. When is sampling?

2. That model has been terrible this season.

3. It has bias in that direction.

4. It injected bad data.

5. Point out the one run in the ensembles that buries you.

 

feel free to add

[sbnwx85]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

Remember if you get a bad model run:

1. When is sampling?

2. That model has been terrible this season.

3. It has bias in that direction.

4. It injected bad data.

5. Point out the one run in the ensembles that buries you.

 

feel free to add

6. 6z and 18z data are off runs.