January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[PhilsFanDrew]

1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

I wouldn’t trust it unless it gets support. The NAM can be prone to extreme runs both ways. 

It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV.  The only run it didn't was the 12z today.   I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame.  When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, PhilsFanDrew said:

It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV.  The only run it didn't was the 12z today.   I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame.  When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. 

The NAM looked similar for a while and then maybe showed its range. I remember it before some big storms it scared people. Just have to let the runs play out. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

3k NAMs.  All Philly schools closed. City has a "snow emergency". Gov. of NJ declared "state of emergency" (her presser is going on right now).

[Duca892]

5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

3k NAMs.  All Philly schools closed. City has a "snow emergency". Gov. of NJ declared "state of emergency" (her presser is going on right now).

legit lol'd

[MacChump]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Remember this...literally, what the hell did that achieve?

effed up my ability to sled down the big hill in my neighborhood, that's what

[anthonyweather]

It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV.  The only run it didn't was the 12z today.   I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame.  When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. 

Yep they have been unbeatable. Hate to see the NAM go


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[Duca892]

If that NAM run worked out like that I would quit this hobby... ........until like Tuesday to start it all over again for next weekends possibility. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I wouldn’t trust it unless it gets support. The NAM can be prone to extreme runs both ways. 

I am not discounting the NAM. It can be a frontrunner showing the thermal trends. I hope its wrong but there is a decent chance it is leading the way. Seen this before. Oh, and always go with the least snowy model. Weenie handbook first chapter, first sentence in the book!

 

[Physicsteve]

EE rule ftL  still, 9 hours of snow followed by 11 hours of sleet will still be impressive and impactful. 
 

*note to self: wait until 850-700mb layers can be accurately modeled

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

legit lol'd

lol for who Delaware County has gone 13” to 10” to 5.7 now is that less than 3” 

[RedSky]

Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

RGEM is colder than 12z fwiw.

[Newman]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM

[Birds~69]

17 minutes ago, MacChump said:

effed up my ability to sled down the big hill in my neighborhood, that's what

I'll give you that one.

Kids worst nightmare, anything which prevented the largest hill in the neighborhood from being slick as hell. To make matters worse they'd do a double-drive-by/extra sand/salt to make sure they killed my dreams...

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM

 

[JTA66]

I rode the HRRR/RGEM combo to victory last weekend (go figure?). I'll ride it again this weekend 

[Hurricane Agnes]

18z Canadian.

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, JTA66 said:

I rode the HRRR/RGEM combo to victory last weekend (go figure?). I'll ride it again this weekend 

At this point im following the rule I posted above and expecting the 12k nam, or possibly even worse assuming it keeps trending. Anything better than that solution will leave me surprised and elated.

[Violentweatherfan]

29 minutes ago, MacChump said:

effed up my ability to sled down the big hill in my neighborhood, that's what

There used to be dirt mixed with the cinder, the cinder truck would get pelted with snowballs after slinging that shit all over the road

[geeter1]

47 minutes ago, PhilsFanDrew said:

It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV.  The only run it didn't was the 12z today.   I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame.  When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. 

Time to start looking at Mesos...

[Hurricane Agnes]

19z NBM still bullish.

[Kevin Reilly]

16 minutes ago, Newman said:

Philly heat island full effect 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

19z NBM still bullish.

I lost 8" snow on the nbm

[Ralph Wiggum]

At least Boston gets the golden shovel. They deserve it.

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Philly heat island full effect 

All the way out to reading?

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I lost 8" snow on the nbm

it's that "line".  Have been listening to Accuwx this afternoon as they slowly drop the totals.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

All the way out to reading?

Sorry in all seriousness you’re right a clear warm tongue there shown on the Nam it’s really good on picking those features up.  Frustrating!

[Heisy]

The maps all over the news and nws are just wild to me. Listening to WIP on way to work people think we’re getting a foot of snow in the city. I don’t want to sound like a deb, because I am excited for the storm, but I personally think 4-6” then sleet for the city. I just feel like we’re going to hear “oh the wx forecasters blew it” all week. I just don’t see a path for Philly to get 8+. I hope I’m wrong lol. This event has reminded me of Dec 2020 and I’ll stick to that general snow axis. I said I liked that analog a week ago and now it’s top 5 in analog matches


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[Duca892]

GFS just again plows the area lmfao