PhilsFanDrew Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: I wouldn’t trust it unless it gets support. The NAM can be prone to extreme runs both ways. It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV. The only run it didn't was the 12z today. I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame. When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, PhilsFanDrew said: It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV. The only run it didn't was the 12z today. I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame. When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. The NAM looked similar for a while and then maybe showed its range. I remember it before some big storms it scared people. Just have to let the runs play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3k NAMs. All Philly schools closed. City has a "snow emergency". Gov. of NJ declared "state of emergency" (her presser is going on right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 3k NAMs. All Philly schools closed. City has a "snow emergency". Gov. of NJ declared "state of emergency" (her presser is going on right now). legit lol'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Remember this...literally, what the hell did that achieve? effed up my ability to sled down the big hill in my neighborhood, that's what 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV. The only run it didn't was the 12z today. I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame. When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. Yep they have been unbeatable. Hate to see the NAM go . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago If that NAM run worked out like that I would quit this hobby... ........until like Tuesday to start it all over again for next weekends possibility. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 23 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I wouldn’t trust it unless it gets support. The NAM can be prone to extreme runs both ways. I am not discounting the NAM. It can be a frontrunner showing the thermal trends. I hope its wrong but there is a decent chance it is leading the way. Seen this before. Oh, and always go with the least snowy model. Weenie handbook first chapter, first sentence in the book! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago EE rule ftL still, 9 hours of snow followed by 11 hours of sleet will still be impressive and impactful. *note to self: wait until 850-700mb layers can be accurately modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Duca892 said: legit lol'd lol for who Delaware County has gone 13” to 10” to 5.7 now is that less than 3” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago RGEM is colder than 12z fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 17 minutes ago, MacChump said: effed up my ability to sled down the big hill in my neighborhood, that's what I'll give you that one. Kids worst nightmare, anything which prevented the largest hill in the neighborhood from being slick as hell. To make matters worse they'd do a double-drive-by/extra sand/salt to make sure they killed my dreams... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Busy as hell somebody post a train wreck for the 18z NAM 2 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I rode the HRRR/RGEM combo to victory last weekend (go figure?). I'll ride it again this weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: I rode the HRRR/RGEM combo to victory last weekend (go figure?). I'll ride it again this weekend At this point im following the rule I posted above and expecting the 12k nam, or possibly even worse assuming it keeps trending. Anything better than that solution will leave me surprised and elated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 29 minutes ago, MacChump said: effed up my ability to sled down the big hill in my neighborhood, that's what There used to be dirt mixed with the cinder, the cinder truck would get pelted with snowballs after slinging that shit all over the road 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 47 minutes ago, PhilsFanDrew said: It's concerning that in the past 4 runs the sleet line has been getting up to the LV. The only run it didn't was the 12z today. I will say if the Euro shows the same over the next few runs its ballgame. When the NAM and Euro have been aligned so far this year that is typically what has played out. Time to start looking at Mesos... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19z NBM still bullish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 16 minutes ago, Newman said: Philly heat island full effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 19z NBM still bullish. I lost 8" snow on the nbm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago At least Boston gets the golden shovel. They deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Philly heat island full effect All the way out to reading? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I lost 8" snow on the nbm it's that "line". Have been listening to Accuwx this afternoon as they slowly drop the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: All the way out to reading? Sorry in all seriousness you’re right a clear warm tongue there shown on the Nam it’s really good on picking those features up. Frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The maps all over the news and nws are just wild to me. Listening to WIP on way to work people think we’re getting a foot of snow in the city. I don’t want to sound like a deb, because I am excited for the storm, but I personally think 4-6” then sleet for the city. I just feel like we’re going to hear “oh the wx forecasters blew it” all week. I just don’t see a path for Philly to get 8+. I hope I’m wrong lol. This event has reminded me of Dec 2020 and I’ll stick to that general snow axis. I said I liked that analog a week ago and now it’s top 5 in analog matches . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS just again plows the area lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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