Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Snowlover11]

18 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

I’m assuming we’ll see winter storm watches posted by Friday evening?

Correct usually 48 hrs in advance.

[Prue11]

18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

"Wet" as in intense rates, which is true considering it falls in about 12 hours. Temps between 700mb and 850mb surge during the day on Sunday and no longer support snow by Sunday evening for much of the forum. It's a high impact event but shorter in duration than some other models.

We had over 2’ in 12 hours February 2013 in Suffolk 

[Snowlover11]

Watches flying all over in VA, PA, NJ, NY.

[Prue11]

Atleast 1/3 of the United States is under a winter storm watch/warning 

[BoulderWX]

Warm nose apparent on the ICON at 06z - ugly depiction and a big step back from OOZ

[EasternLI]

Not very often that you see winter storm headlines cover that much real estate. In NNE, those are actually extreme cold watches. Impressive. 

[dseagull]

By the time all is said amd done, this storm will mostly be remembered for the areas that recieve ice, and the following arctic air.  Sure doesnt look like the blockbuster metropolis snowstorm we were hoping would thread the needle. 

Im enjoying watching the evolution of model outputs, particularly the AI versions.  We have a longgggg way to go with AI models, and without sampling, its evident that solutions will likely not verify at a higher level than traditional models. 

[Neblizzard]

06z GFS is approximately an 18 hour event across the metro and continues to remain on the colder side of the guidance . 10-15 inches region wide. 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

0z GFS is approximately an 18 hour event across the metro and continues to remain on the colder side of the guidance . 10-15 inches region wide. 

You see 6z? Lol. 12-20”+

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

You see 6z? Lol. 12-20”+

I meant 6z, my mistake. 

[qg_omega]

Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb.  In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled.  Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday

[North and West]

I’m not buying it either for my area but I think the mix line could make it up to southern Monmouth 

As long as it doesn’t make it to MMU, amirite??


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[North and West]

I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow

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[LawdogGRNJ]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

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Exactly - having gone through one of the historic ice storms of the 1990's, there's nothing "nice" about them.