MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 10/ 8 about an inch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 LOVING Looking at the radar !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 53 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Ok boyz and grrrrrllls - as of 6:30 am we have 3/4" of the most exquisite pixie dust snow imaginable otg at 11 frikkin' degrees F! Let's get a foot or more! Woke up for a minute at about 4:50 am and snow had just started then. As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour. This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Enjoy it fellas. It’s here. All the tracking has paid off. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Can’t remember the last time it was 12 with moderate snow falling, definitely a rare treat! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Moderate to almost heavy snow in Morristown. Radar presentation looks solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nice band about to form over the boroughs and Long Island it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Yep, we're gonna have fun the next 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Got into a heavy band, its pushed east but wow. The latest hrrr is wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 There's an obs thread guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5.9 degrees with heavy snow. A phrase more commonly heard from somewhere in the Adirondacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 26 minutes ago, RU848789 said: As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour. This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy. As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then). Changeover line is in southern DE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The mix line is through the the DCA area. The graphics for the colder models (e.g., UKMET) had it well south of there at this time. The snowier models (ECM-AI etc) that showed 10"+ down that way are not likely to verify. Most reports are around 6" or less of pure snow. They should get a few inches of sleet on top, however (which Pivotal claims not to count as snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 A day or so I highlighted northern VA as an indicator for how well the models were handling the sleet line. The warmer models surged it to northern VA before 10am while the colder models kept it in southern/central VA. Looks like the warmer models were right so far. I really hope it shifts east and washes out this afternoon. Without looking at the latest model runs I'd gotta assume someone in the mid Hudson Valley could hit 18" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: The mix line is through the the DCA area. The graphics for the colder models (e.g., UKMET) had it well south of there at this time. The snowier models (ECM-AI etc) that showed 10"+ down that way are not likely to verify. Most reports are around 6" or less of pure snow. They should get a few inches of sleet on top, however (which Pivotal claims not to count as snow). Just saw this. It’s mostly snow 5.5 inches 5 miles west of dc sleet coming down but it’s majority snow still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Just saw this. It’s mostly snow 5.5 inches 5 miles west of dc sleet coming down but it’s majority snow still I wish that were true, but it's not. Regardless, even if it is/were true, that's what the "mix line" means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: The mix line is through the the DCA area. The graphics for the colder models (e.g., UKMET) had it well south of there at this time. The snowier models (ECM-AI etc) that showed 10"+ down that way are not likely to verify. Most reports are around 6" or less of pure snow. They should get a few inches of sleet on top, however (which Pivotal claims not to count as snow). Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 53 minutes ago, RU848789 said: As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour. This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy. As of 8:30 am snowing moderately and we have 3.1" otg (1.1" last hour) and it's 11F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 15 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Changeover line is in southern DE. Yeah, looks like it's almost in Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: I wish that were true, but it's not. Regardless, even if it is/were true, that's what the "mix line" means. Thats from someone who lives down there who has been live tweeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 lol almost like people wanna rush this mix line in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick. Also don't forget if cities/towns just use plain salt, it does not have the same melting power when temps get below 20 degrees. I know NYC Sanitation salt trucks have the ability to mix in liquid calcium chloride when they spread so that should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: A day or so I highlighted northern VA as an indicator for how well the models were handling the sleet line. The warmer models surged it to northern VA before 10am while the colder models kept it in southern/central VA. Looks like the warmer models were right so far. I really hope it shifts east and washes out this afternoon. Without looking at the latest model runs I'd gotta assume someone in the mid Hudson Valley could hit 18" today It seems more NW/SE oriented with the mix line so far and even the HRRR now gets sleet briefly into Rockland/N Passaic before it mixes out, then it seems to fight back and forth for a while even into northern NYC/North Shore. I-84 which will be a little north of the mixing over to Boston which should get additional snow on Mon with the coastal storm will be the jackpot axis here. But that doesn't lower the impact here or where it mixes for a while IMO since it will all have the same water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Ugh, the HRRR has sleet in here by 1-2pm. It has continuously shifted north since it's been in range. And sleet actually started to mix in in VA earlier than the HRRR showed. The northern edge of mixing might oscillate or battle back to snow but that's quite the warm tongue surge now modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeimonas Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Location: South Bronx overlooking Harlem Manhattan. View of Third Ave Bridge, Harlem River Drive IMG_1305.HEIC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 12z hrrr still insistent on a foot in nyc and parts of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick. The NAM and GFS seem okay on Pivotal, but the UKMET seems wrong. It keeps adding snow after the mix line moves well north. The ECM-AI is also obviously way too widespread with snow accumulations but I think that's due to lack of vertical resolution. A few other models might be off on Pivotal too - it's model by model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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