Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[NJwx85]

[SACRUS]

[nycsnow]

[SACRUS]

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

NYC metro has biggest upside potential.

The surface high position/intensity and antecedent is pretty well perfect. It’s one of the rare times to bet against the “warming 925 - 800 into go time”

[nycsnow]

lol Nam is such a clown model 

[MANDA]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I"m going to need to see some support from the 00Z CMC RDPS / HRDPS before I give much weight to this.  If it is onto something both the RDPS and HRDPS should start to see it.

 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I"m going to need to see some support from the 00Z CMC RDPS / HRDPS before I give much weight to this.  If it is onto something both the RDPS and HRDPS should start to see it.

 

They were there @ 18z 

[nycsnow]

Fv3 as mix starts in metro

[Snowlover11]

Nam is unchanged from its 18z run

[Winterweatherlover]

NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z.

[Joe4alb]

Of course it is!

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Nam is unchanged from its 18z run

 

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z.

Its actually slightly south with the sleet. Coastal is east.

[MJO812]

Fv3 is great 

[NJwx85]

The NAM is actually a touch warmer. At this point I think it’s just noise.

[kat5hurricane]

As I suspected the NAM isn't backing down, it's been pretty consistent. Whether or not that means it's correct is another story but you can't discount this potential solution.

[winterwarlock]

Nam will lead the way

[Stormlover74]

3k change. A little better in some spots worse in others

[jm1220]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z.

At this point the NAM is probably overdone a little with the warmth but it has something of a clue. I believe it more than the cold HRRR/RAP that I’ve seen come in too cold in SWFE setups. 

[Winterweatherlover]

NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost.

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

At this point the NAM is probably overdone a little with the warmth but it has something of a clue. I believe it more than the cold HRRR/RAP that I’ve seen come in too cold in SWFE setups. 

Nam 3k don’t even agree it’s a bit colder and snowier Nam is literally on its owns there’s gonna be a point where people stop giving it so much credit. Nothing is trending to it 

[SACRUS]

 

1/26 00z NAM

 

QPF storm

 

Snow:

[nycsnow]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost.

From Little Rock to Carolina’s NAM has been off all day

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Nam will lead the way

You dont know that. People bash the Nam all the time and now its right ?

[Snowman92]

Mixing line seems to be further south then modeled at the moment. Not by a lot but noticeable

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost.

We’ll know in the morning as the snow shield comes into the area. We need the hellacious thump the RGEM models and HRRR/RAP show. 

[kat5hurricane]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We’ll know in the morning as the snow shield comes into the area. We need the hellacious thump the RGEM models and HRRR/RAP show. 

The RGEM showing the big thump gives me some hope, and the UKIE as well. I can't much if any stock into what the HRRR and RAP show, they almost always run on the cold side.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/26 00z NAM

 

QPF storm

 

Snow:

Well, if there’s 5” of snow at 10-1 ratio (0.5” liquid) then 1” liquid as sleet, that’s 8” total with sleet at 3:1 ratio. And again I don’t think this is gospel correct but it’s been consistent enough today to think it has to be onto something since it’s usually a little better at finding these warm layers, although it often overdoes it somewhat. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/26 00z NAM

 

QPF storm

 

Snow:

NAM shows 1.4” of QPF has 7” of snow in NW NJ. I don’t buy it 

[jm1220]

Just now, psv88 said:

NAM shows 1.4” of QPF has 7” of snow in NW NJ. I don’t buy it 

I’m sure it’s somewhat excessive. It probably jumps the sleet line all the way to I-84 still. You can see how the amounts drop from Monticello area to I-84.