Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[MJO812]

[SACRUS]

 

10/ 8  about an inch here

 

[SACRUS]

[Brasiluvsnow]

LOVING Looking at the radar !!!!

[RU848789]

53 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Ok boyz and grrrrrllls - as of 6:30 am we have 3/4" of the most exquisite pixie dust snow imaginable otg at 11 frikkin' degrees F!  Let's get a foot or more!  Woke up for a minute at about 4:50 am and snow had just started then.  

As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour.  This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy.  

[psv88]

Enjoy it fellas. It’s here. All the tracking has paid off. 

[ILoveWinter]

Can’t remember the last time it was 12 with moderate snow falling, definitely a rare treat!

[BoulderWX]

Moderate to almost heavy snow in Morristown. Radar presentation looks solid. 

[nycsnow]

Nice band about to form over the boroughs and Long Island it looks like 

[jm1220]

Yep, we're gonna have fun the next 6 hours. 

[Snowlover11]

Got into a heavy band, its pushed east but wow. The latest hrrr is wild.

[Franklin0529]

There's an obs thread guys

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5.9 degrees with heavy snow. A phrase more commonly heard from somewhere in the Adirondacks. 

[RU848789]

26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour.  This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy.  

As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then).  

[Tatamy]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then).  

Changeover line is in southern DE.

[eduggs]

The mix line is through the the DCA area. The graphics for the colder models (e.g., UKMET) had it well south of there at this time. The snowier models (ECM-AI etc) that showed 10"+ down that way are not likely to verify. Most reports are around 6" or less of pure snow. They should get a few inches of sleet on top, however (which Pivotal claims not to count as snow).

[eduggs]

A day or so I highlighted northern VA as an indicator for how well the models were handling the sleet line. The warmer models surged it to northern VA before 10am while the colder models kept it in southern/central VA. Looks like the warmer models were right so far. I really hope it shifts east and washes out this afternoon. Without looking at the latest model runs I'd gotta assume someone in the mid Hudson Valley could hit 18" today

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The mix line is through the the DCA area. The graphics for the colder models (e.g., UKMET) had it well south of there at this time. The snowier models (ECM-AI etc) that showed 10"+ down that way are not likely to verify. Most reports are around 6" or less of pure snow. They should get a few inches of sleet on top, however (which Pivotal claims not to count as snow).

Just saw this. It’s mostly snow

5.5 inches 5 miles west of dc sleet coming down but it’s majority snow still

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Just saw this. It’s mostly snow

5.5 inches 5 miles west of dc sleet coming down but it’s majority snow still

I wish that were true, but it's not. Regardless, even if it is/were true, that's what the "mix line" means.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The mix line is through the the DCA area. The graphics for the colder models (e.g., UKMET) had it well south of there at this time. The snowier models (ECM-AI etc) that showed 10"+ down that way are not likely to verify. Most reports are around 6" or less of pure snow. They should get a few inches of sleet on top, however (which Pivotal claims not to count as snow).

Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick. 

[RU848789]

53 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour.  This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy.  

As of 8:30 am snowing moderately and we have 3.1" otg (1.1" last hour) and it's 11F.  

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Changeover line is in southern DE.

Yeah, looks like it's almost in Cape May

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I wish that were true, but it's not. Regardless, even if it is/were true, that's what the "mix line" means.

Thats from someone who lives down there who has been live tweeting 

[nycsnow]

lol almost like people wanna rush this mix line in..

[weathermedic]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick. 

Also don't forget if cities/towns just use plain salt, it does not have the same melting power when temps get below 20 degrees. I know NYC Sanitation salt trucks have the ability to mix in liquid calcium chloride when they spread so that should help

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

A day or so I highlighted northern VA as an indicator for how well the models were handling the sleet line. The warmer models surged it to northern VA before 10am while the colder models kept it in southern/central VA. Looks like the warmer models were right so far. I really hope it shifts east and washes out this afternoon. Without looking at the latest model runs I'd gotta assume someone in the mid Hudson Valley could hit 18" today

It seems more NW/SE oriented with the mix line so far and even the HRRR now gets sleet briefly into Rockland/N Passaic before it mixes out, then it seems to fight back and forth for a while even into northern NYC/North Shore. 

I-84 which will be a little north of the mixing over to Boston which should get additional snow on Mon with the coastal storm will be the jackpot axis here. But that doesn't lower the impact here or where it mixes for a while IMO since it will all have the same water content.

[eduggs]

Ugh, the HRRR has sleet in here by 1-2pm. It has continuously shifted north since it's been in range. And sleet actually started to mix in in VA earlier than the HRRR showed. The northern edge of mixing might oscillate or battle back to snow but that's quite the warm tongue surge now modeled.

[Xeimonas]

Location: South Bronx overlooking Harlem Manhattan. View of Third Ave Bridge, Harlem River Drive

IMG_1305.HEIC

[nycsnow]

12z hrrr still insistent on a foot in nyc and parts of li

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pretty sure they don't. On the NAM at least I noticed that once the sleet line was through it stopped adding snow. Like it or not the warm mid level thermals group seems to be winning out. The NAM's been steady enough with it that it's clear it was onto something. But it won't matter if we get upward of 2"/hr before the sleet and a couple inches of sleet on top with some freezing drizzle to cement it all up. It'll suck to shovel/move it, roads will be horrendous because sleet is a lot harder to really get rid of and it will last way longer because it'll turn into a brick. 

The NAM and GFS seem okay on Pivotal, but the UKMET seems wrong. It keeps adding snow after the mix line moves well north. The ECM-AI is also obviously way too widespread with snow accumulations but I think that's due to lack of vertical resolution. A few other models might be off on Pivotal too - it's model by model.