Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You dont know that. People bash the Nam all the time and now its right ?

it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore

im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area

[donsutherland1]

Source: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53067/noaa_53067_DS1.pdf

 

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Well, if there’s 5” of snow at 10-1 ratio (0.5” liquid) then 1” liquid as sleet, that’s 8” total with sleet at 3:1 ratio. And again I don’t think this is gospel correct but it’s been consistent enough today to think it has to be onto something since it’s usually a little better at finding these warm layers, although it often overdoes it somewhat. 

But what about every other model that’s been locked in for days? You could make the argument for cmc rgem Ukie rap hrrr euro ai euro they haven’t wavered 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Nam has to be overdone. Euro has held. I’ll take the blend. 6-10” on Long Island and then sleet 

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Nam has to be overdone. Euro has held. I’ll take the blend. 6-10” on Long Island and then sleet 

At this time anyone on LI should be happy with that

[nycsnow]

8-14 nyc area and if nyc hits double digits better never hear about the NAM and how it nailed 4 warm tongue events in the last 37 years lol….hopefully the colder trends on the other models continue tn

[Winterweatherlover]

I know the NAM has nailed warm tounge events well, on the contrary has it had any significant fails in this situation in the past?

[Snowlover11]

Nam is on its own currently pushing the mixing that far north. Lets see the rest of 0z before bridge jumping here.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

But what about every other model that’s been locked in for days? You could make the argument for cmc rgem Ukie rap hrrr euro ai euro they haven’t wavered 

They could still be right. We’ll see what they say at 0z then I’d say it’s time to look at radar trends and start to buy more into the short range models. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I know the NAM has nailed warm tounge events well, on the contrary has it had any significant fails in this situation in the past?

The 12/26 clipper it overdid the mid level warming. 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

They could still be right. We’ll see what they say at 0z then I’d say it’s time to look at radar trends and start to buy more into the short range models. 

Yea, did you see that Eric Webb tweet? Hrrr doing better than NAM and also in Tennessee and Little Rock the man wasn’t good today @ all. I know it may not matter up here but def gotta keep it in mind

[WestBabylonWeather]

It is quite frustrating that this is the coldest airmass storm for us in a decade? And we are discussing precip type. Crash out type stuff 

[MJO812]

Nams snow depth is higher than kuchera and 10:1

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It is quite frustrating that this is the coldest airmass storm for us in a decade? And we are discussing precip type. Crash out type stuff 

The 500/700mb setup matters most in terms of the precip we get not the surface (unless plain rain). This isn’t your normal heavy snow setup for NYC. It’s a typical Nina SWFE that has a better antecedent overrunning dome than normal putting more of us in the game for an initial thump. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Nams snow depth is higher than kuchera and 10:1

wouldn't snow depth include snow currently on the ground?

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nams snow depth is higher than kuchera and 10:1

Must be including sleet

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It is quite frustrating that this is the coldest airmass storm for us in a decade? And we are discussing precip type. Crash out type stuff 

Thats glass half empty take and a reasonable one as it is frustrating. Glass half full the area is getting a significant winter storm with a lousy track/storm setup for this region.

[wthrmn654]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

NAM shows 1.4” of QPF has 7” of snow in NW NJ. I don’t buy it 

Based on nam eastern Long Island and north east does best,  that's 2 runs in a row i think.. odd 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It is quite frustrating that this is the coldest airmass storm for us in a decade? And we are discussing precip type. Crash out type stuff 

Because this is a Miller B. This was the only option unless it stayed way suppressed to the South.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nams snow depth is higher than kuchera and 10:1

Now that make sense. 4.5” of snow leads to a snow depth of 6.5”…

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nams snow depth is higher than kuchera and 10:1

The snow depth might be counting the sleet that’s on the ground in addition to the snow. With the amount of liquid total vs snow amount it shows there could be 2-3” additional as sleet. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

If Nam is right farmingdale gets sleet while Montauk is heavy snow 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

wouldn't snow depth include snow currently on the ground?

No

[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

If Nam is right farmingdale gets sleet while Montauk is heavy snow 

That’s common in SWFE…warm air comes from SW to NE. It’s why Suffolk does better than Nassau during these events 

[psv88]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 12/26 clipper it overdid the mid level warming. 

Correct. We stayed mostly snow and went way over forecast. NAM had us with 3”, we got 8”. 

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Based on nam eastern Long Island and north east does best,  that's 2 runs in a row i think.. odd 

Better latitude and warming coming from the southwest rather than the southeast in this type of setup. Warming probably comes from the southeast with the coastal for eastern LI but that's only very late in the storm.

[psv88]

BIG jump south on the RRFS…it’s the one model that nailed the clipper in December 

[nycsnow]

The RRFs separated it self from the crappy nam

hour 20

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

BIG jump south on the RRFS…it’s the one model that nailed the clipper in December 

Probably signals that the gfs will also.   Mixing so far stays south of the city

 

[nycsnow]

Vs 23 we got a collapsing mix line!!!!