EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: look through this and let us know Ray's Winter Storm Archive Yeah I was looking and did not find so am thinking it was January of 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 A bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 the plus euro looks like a nice thump, the negative is it looks like it brings ZR into NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hate the 10 to 1 maps for southern areas. Ratios with the sleet mix will be less. I believe pivotal does not use sleet in any snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 But mixes a bit north of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: the plus euro looks like a nice thump, the negative is it looks like it brings ZR into NYC/LI Ironically is the developing coast which shoots the warm layer up. We would have been better off without it. Would have flipped but more snow ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hate the 10 to 1 maps for southern areas. Ratios with the sleet mix will be less. Hopefully the ratios start out above 10-1 when the column is still cold, so maybe we average out 10-1 before the sleet comes in. Some places north and west that stay all snow will likely average 15:1 type ratios given the amount of moisture in the snow growth zone and lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12z EC QPF Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: I believe pivotal does not use sleet in any snow map That's the issue I believe. Southern areas will not reach that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: 12z EC QPF Snow Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, North and West said: . I'm modest ,,,,,,,,,,,,but I KNOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ironically is the developing coast which shoots the warm layer up. We would have been better off without it. Would have flipped but more snow ahead. I don't mind changing to sleet but changing to ZR would be a nightmare. I agree the coastal is more north this run which is why even the extreme coast of eastern SNE flips to rain at the end of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: But mixes a bit north of 06z Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro good, all short range minus nams good, Ukie good, gfs decent nam sucks icon sucks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 euro probably is the one peeps should sign on for....widespread 6-8 for CJ, 7-10 north of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south. Plain rain creeping up to LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: euro probably is the one peeps should sign on for....widespread 6-8 for CJ, 7-10 north of 78 We want RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: still very bullish VERY bullish, 10-12" areawide seems highly unlikely but they're in the process of lowering the numbers little by little, they were at 13-15" yesterday, so I expect them to continue lowering amounts as we near the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 From everything I've read, and all the Mets I've watched. Central Park is looking like minimum 6-10, probably 8-12. My question is what's the betting line that CP measures more than 3.8" regardless? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Rmine1 said: Plain rain creeping up to LI Central and Eastern LI would likely see a little rain if the euro secondary track is accurate but it's mainly after precip has lightened up significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: VERY bullish, 10-12" areawide seems highly unlikely but they're in the process of lowering the numbers little by little, they were at 13-15" yesterday, so I expect them to continue lowering amounts as we near the event. 8-14 nyc east I think looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Plain rain creeping up to LI It’s not going to rain on LI (plain rain) outside of maybe Montauk. This kind of cold surface air won’t be dislodged unless we had a strong prolonged onshore flow. I could maybe see freezing rain for a time but the back half of this storm is probably sleet. NJ gets that prolonged onshore flow so south of Tom’s River it might really change to rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 16 minutes ago, SACRUS said: A bit colder Nice 6-10. Thats what we should expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euro is fine. Not worried about rain on Long Island lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nice 6-10. Thats what we should expect.Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south. Spot-on. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Very close to better. Euro AI better, most short range keep it snow longer or entirely. I think small changes are possible that can make a big diff in totals. . Exactly. Even an hour delay in a changeover could mean 2” extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Spot-on. WX/PT For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, psv88 said: I think totals will come down at the next shift. Maybe 6-10” for the city and coast. 10-14” is too bullish now. Unfortunately that secondary isn’t much of a help. I’m still very much looking forward to tracking this beast, even though it’s become a glorified SWFE It's good to keep expectations in check... and a 24 hour storm with 6 to 10 inches of snow and sleet (followed by below freezing temps for a week) would typically thrill everyone on here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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