Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, psv88 said: As @NorthShoreWxsaid, there may be times where it’s a snow/sleet mix. So that purple is a mix rather than pure sleet. Very rate dependent. If you’re under a big band you’ll flip back to snow IMO Perhaps yes. Either way we might see 2 to 4" of whatever on top of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The RGEM is running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: How much is 2 inch per hour at 15:1 in 3 hours?? Snow totals by ratio 10:1 → 0.40 × 10 = 4 inches 15:1 → 0.40 × 15 = 6 inches 20:1 → 0.40 × 20 = 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 00z RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Can't remember the last time I saw such a wild range of snow amounts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10 PM Temps. Central Park 19, Albany 9, Buffalo 1, International Falls MN. -21 (9PM) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Rgem looks largely unchanged through hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Fun fact Jan 23,2025 the low temperature was 13... crazy nearly sand a year later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Hr 42 rgem is a tad north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ends up slightly snowier than 18z due to a better front end thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 14 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: That at 10:1 ratio... It's gonna be 15:1 atleast when this gets going. But how long that lasts is anyone's guess.. The ratios will be good when we get started but they will lower as more warm air moves in aloft. We need temps from -12 to -18C in the layer where snowflakes are made for the best ratios. As we get warmer than that in the clouds the ratios will get lousier. Inland where it’s all snow will do well with ratios but wouldn’t surprise me near the city that we average 10:1. Thing is though that the sleet counts in the accumulations, so if we get 6” with 0.6” liquid then another 0.6” liquid as sleet, that adds up to almost 8” total since sleet has a 3:1 ratio. Time to concede near the city that a good chunk of the liquid that falls will be in the form of sleet. Hopefully it’s more like 20-30% but the NAM would be something like 60% and primarily a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Can't remember the last time I saw such a wild range of snow amounts lol Yeah you’ll go nuts obsessing over it. I’m just going to enjoy whatever I get at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 one random thought: while we are used to Manhattan/Central Park getting lower totals due to the urban heat island effect, I’d assume that’s going to be less of the case here as surface temps aren’t an issue and it’s only upper levels where warm temps are coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Rgem is around 9 inches for the city. Snowier than 18z with a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Front-end WAA, much like mid-level warmth, often overperforms. Definitely dont sleep on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think the RGEM looks better. Maybe a tick colder out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Also if we have a lousy broken up snow shield that will mean that we have inconsistent/lousy lift and saturation which means crappy snow ratios as well. We need strong lift, saturation and snow growth in the -12 to -18C layer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, samdman95 said: one random thought: while we are used to Manhattan/Central Park getting lower totals due to the urban heat island effect, I’d assume that’s going to be less of the case here as surface temps aren’t an issue and it’s only upper levels where warm temps are coming in UHI won’t be a problem with temps in the low 20s. It will stick everywhere right away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RGEM Total QPF storm Total snow (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS held. Good suite so far. Looks like a sick thump 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Best RGEM run yet for Long Island. 10-12”. Sick! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/24 00Z NYC QPF / Snow (Frz) SREF (mean): 1.3 / 9.7 NAM: 1.2 / 4.7 ICON: 1.4 / 8.1 RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: GFS held. Good suite so far. Looks like a sick thump Yeah, dude - I’m excited for it. Should be fun! In reality this just morphed into a super amped system that’s largely saved by the arctic dome above us, otherwise we’d all mostly be raining Sunday. It’s a cool storm, been fun to track. And I’ll take 8 and some sleet and call it a day. Not gonna complain about that after the past few winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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