TJW014 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its wild how many Mets are going to miss this event because they'll be in Houston for AMS True. Could be a reason why many are throwing out maps so early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 i will be in california for the duration of this event. but i can recommend this: if your local store is out of dairy milk, consider oat milk. its tasty and cow-less anyways im only a lil jealous of yall but pls enjoy for me:)Wasn’t much of that left either . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 24 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Who will be the first to post “radar doesn’t look good, if it doesn’t fill in we are gonna bust low” I can give you a few candidates I'd lay money on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, MANDA said: I can give you a few candidates I'd lay money on. This system isn't moisture starved by any means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Jan 82 was the plane crash in the Potomac. How it worked back then: I arrived on campus and there was a note taped to the door; classes canceled because it is going to snow. That was the first I’d heard about it. The next day my dad would tell me, you shovel snow like I sh!t…I still miss the guy. . Thank you for sharing your memories. May your father RIP. I miss my father, too. He passed away almost 12 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: There going with 15:1 snow ratios and high snowfall rates mostly. If you're lucky enough to get under a band of 2 to 3 inches an hour or a couple of hours it piles up quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: They're going with the nws. That's fine and I don't have any issue with that. I kind of like the bold call from the nws. I definitely disagree with them right now though but what do I know. These would be 2/1/21 like totals at least for the city and LI. Much as I think this will be an impressive storm here I don’t see that kind of an outcome at least here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said: It’s still 3 days away. It’s fine to give a range of possibilities, but considering the snow won’t start till early Sunday, this still could be either a 4 to 8 or 8 to 12 or 12 to 18 type deal for NYC.. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, TV forecasters almost never gave out estimates before 48 hours and usually only 24. Yes, modeling and science has gotten better. But we all know plenty of models can still make fairly large shifts within 72 hours. . Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30”Got about 6 out of that one but we were never supposed to be in it out here, so it was cool. Mostly lost a lot to front end rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: I mean as of right now sleet is likely to cut down on totals for a large chunk of the subforum no matter what some of our posters say. So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 29 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: On the edge of what? What the heck are you talking about? Monster snowstorm headed right for you. Just enjoy it. I can’t even believe the stuff I’m reading in this forum. You have 0 chance of waking up with 4 inches of snow on Monday morning. This is supposed to be a scientific forum that looks at models and discusses them. you have 1 inch to one and a half inches of precipitation moving into an airmass that is pure arctic. Even if this forums wildest deranged fantasies come true of an all sleet fest you’re gonna have more than 4 inches crap on the ground when all is said and done. A lot more. Step back from the imaginary cliff edge you and an echo chamber walked yourselves onto over the past 72 hours. It's interesting how being objective and balanced about a snow threat can upset some people so much. Everything has to be positive and rosy and amazing or the sensitive types freak out. Yes I will enjoy whatever snow falls probably more than most people. And the edge I was referring to is the threshold of something historical that gets remembered and mentioned in future years. Yes I do think 6"+ is likely in and around NYC, but 4" is plausible on the low low end if several things trend negatively. Just as 18" is plausible on the high end. Anyone who's followed weather for a while knows nothing is ever guaranteed. 12 hours of snow to sleet to dryslot should be a lot of fun. It's a high impact event. But if we can somehow get north of the dryslot, it could morph into the 24 hour plus event that some models were showing 2 days ago... and that a lot of the online/media hype is based on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Anyone have a good NAO dataset they could share? Something more than the ncep teleconnection forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: FWIW TWC said 12 to 18 and any brief mixing will not affect snow totals. This from the station that for years posted snow totals and temperature records for Dulles airport as part of WDC records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 From the list of snowstorms I provided earlier, I checked Islip's climate record. Islip's record covers all the snowstorms beginning with the January 1964 blizzard. Only the January 29-31, 1966 blizzard brought less than 6" to Islip (5.0"). My current thinking is that Islip will see 4"-8", but we'll see if that holds up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 More recon, this time over the Gulf going into the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum?Could be, but this looks like a good amount of snow first. That said… I can give a list as long as my arm of storms that were near misses…Paul kocins’ book has a whole chapter on them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Seen it happen before. 48 hours before Nemo in 2013 TWC had me in a 1-3” range. Went ended up with 30” I am old enough to vaguely remember the Blizzard of 93. And even though that storm was pretty well modeled, considering the era, I honestly don't think anyone saw a map of likely snow accumulations until the day before the storm. If you did, it was something vague like "at least six inches expected" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: what's with the 6's? every decade big storm If the pattern progression continues this year, Central Park should record a 34.2 inch storm. Math at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Hoping for 8+ at the beach. Glad the thump is coming during daylight hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Euro front band is nuts for you guys. It moves through quickly but its 3"/hr min over those 2 hours. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Anyone planing on going for a Jebwalk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Out of our area but check out this sounding from RDU area. Warm nose is rather deep and freezing layer is very shallow just a little above the deck at about 1000 mb. level. Some locations down that way are going to get crushed with ZR and be without power for days in bitter cold. Bad scene. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Could be, but this looks like a good amount of snow first. That said… I can give a list as long as my arm of storms that were near misses…Paul kocins’ book has a whole chapter on them. . There’s a ton of moisture being thrown over a strong expansive overrunning dome this time which makes it different from most SWFEs and makes for a wide expanse of snow ahead of the mix line. That’s how DC is also in line for a 6”+ event here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: So more of a sleet fest for a chunk of the forum? I sure hope not. I'm thinking "a bunch of snow" followed by a significant period of sleet then back to some light snow. Idk how far north the sleet gets...maybe hpn? There's still plenty of time left to adjust all of these thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 21Z SREF Total QPF (87H) mean Total snow / sleet mean (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro front band is nuts for you guys. It moves through quickly but its 3"/hr min over those 2 hours. Yea it's probably going to really rip for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Out of our area but check out this sounding from RDU area. Warm nose is rather deep and freezing layer is very shallow just about 1000' off the deck. Some locations down that way are going to get crushed with ZR and be without power for days in bitter cold. Bad scene. There’ll definitely be a zone somewhere from likely N/C Texas around Dallas to Waco, maybe Austin to the Carolinas that get hammered with ice and possibly devastating in some places. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 31 minutes ago, Rjay said: He's getting so much crap for being disappointed. I kinda feel the way he does. I loved being on the northern fringe of this. That was a great spot for us. Is he being a bit excessive with it? Sure but everyone's reactions to him are worse imo. I'm not disappointed yet. I'm looking forward to a major event and also holding out hope for even better trends. I don't think the current state of model output is as favorable as the clown maps would indicate. If you blend the synoptics of the Euro, UK, and CMC with the NAM thermals it starts to look uncomfortable. I also think people have short memories when it comes to the many many events where the NAM surged the warm tongue inside 48 hours and dramatically changed the forecast landscape. Heck even December 26th played out like that even though some refused to admit it. People overgeneralize and anthropomorphize things like arctic air and high pressure and think it makes us immune to synoptics. We fail to see and acknowledge obvious things like the trof axis being very far west... which historically favors the interior and New England for the best snows. Fingers crossed for everyone to get buried, but I plan to acknowledge the bad with the good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Rjay said: Yea it's probably going to really rip for a time. And that should help hold the warm mid level air back. Hopefully the sleet gets here just as the precip is about to end anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, jm1220 said: And that should help hold the warm mid level air back. Hopefully the sleet gets here just as the precip is about to end anyway. That's my hope at well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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