SBUWX23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now. the high for the day can happen before midnight, so you will be in the teens all day and maybe come up a bit late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I dont know why people are panicking. 6z runs looked pretty damn good to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now. Yup cold but no single Digit lows for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we get 10” of snow with sleet mixed in at the end that will all freeze up and thicken the snowpack up, count that as a big win. Rather that than 15” all snow that melts faster. No way... I gotta move it and once sleet hits , it becomes heavy and difficult. I'll take my 15" of clean snow thanks! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 We’re still not in a regime that allows for big coastal storms like before 2020. Still very progressive and favoring fast moving/suppressed or SWFE type systems. If this one trends to a SWFE type system although one that’s much larger and more far reaching than usual it would fit the mold. I think this is the key in that the conditions just don’t favor those big coastals anymore. But this year it’s finding a way to snow. At least we’re not sitting on a month of 45 and cloudy or 2007s endless rain. In the early 90s conditions didn’t favor any snow at all for several years. Then 93 and 94 happened.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 No way... I gotta move it and once sleet hits , it becomes heavy and difficult. I'll take my 15" of clean snow thanks! LolI think in these setups you have to get out and do what you can before a change over. Unless you are commercial.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding. It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 If we do look at the Nam it drops tons of snow before any mixing. And whatever snow we get will be encased in ice and will get locked in for days. I don’t know if you were around for the 93 superstorm but that’s similar to what happened here, even in March it stuck around for awhile. We got screwed out of the 2 feet the south got, but it was enough to shut schools for days. About 11 inches encased in ice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I think in these setups you have to get out and do what you can before a change over. Unless you are commercial. . I work for a township. I am out from when it first starts. But as a homeowner, yea, it's best to get out during and keep up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I work for a township. I am out from when it first starts. But as a homeowner, yea, it's best to get out during and keep up on it. Thank you for service to your community. I’m retired staff from a school district and know you folks are out there at insane hours when most of us are curled up waiting for the storm to pass. Keep that thermos filled.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 good morning i see stuff trended north this morning. still plenty of time for this to come a little south and hit us like the GFS! Id like to say this, i'd rather have GfS than Euro at this range! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro. Maybe. Wish more levels were available. Even if that happens the precip is about to shut off anyway I think with a dry slot. We'd have a good dump anyway before that. Still a ways to go with this thing. Should be fun to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Alot of storms back in the day use to end as sleet especially near the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 does anyone know how accurate the NBM is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 28 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding. Look at the temps at 700mb and 850mb. It gives a different picture of the event precip wise. Be sure to look at 96 and 102 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Mt. Holly: KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm appears increasingly likely Saturday night through Monday morning. Substantial snow accumulations will be possible across much of the area. Some mixed precipitation is expected as well. A closed mid-level low off the southwestern coast of CA will gradually open and pivot northeastward, eventually phasing with the northern jet as it approaches our region. This will place our entire region in the left exit region of a potent trough. Synoptic scale ascent is expected to begin overspreading the region by Saturday evening. As surface low pressure begins to approach from the southwest, precipitation is expected to begin overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Saturday night. Given the very cold airmass in place initially, precipitation is expected to start as all snow. As the vertical column moistens, snow rates may quickly become heavy, with rapid accumulations possible. During the day on Sunday, additional surface cyclogenesis is expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the surface low tracking northeastward. The primary remaining uncertainty with this forecast is the exact low track. In general, guidance continues to suggest a low track fairly to the coast, with the GFS as a relative outlier a little bit farther out to sea. Given this low track, it is becoming increasingly likely that sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain will enter the picture for parts of the area during the day on Sunday. Right now, this appears most likely from about the Philadelphia metro and south, and perhaps farther north for the Coastal Plain. While this could decrease snow totals some, exactly where mixing occurs remains uncertain, and confidence remains high in significant snow accumulations. In addition, mixed precipitation would still cause significant issues. For this region, DESI probabilities of exceedance for warning criteria snow (5 inches) are over 90%. Depending on how soon, and to what extent, mixing occurs, amounts could exceed 10 inches for this area. Outside of the aforementioned areas, all snow is expected, with significant accumulations likely. DESI probabilities of exceedance for warning level snow (6 inches) across the remainder of our eastern PA and northern NJ counties are over 90%. In fact, probabilities of exceeding 10 inches are 70-90%. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Maybe. Wish more levels were available. Even if that happens the precip is about to shut off anyway I think with a dry slot. We'd have a good dump anyway before that. Still a ways to go with this thing. Should be fun to see what happens. Yeah, they don’t have p-types for that model. So we just have to estimate the p-types from the thickness values and compare to the Euro which has p-types. My guess is that we are going to get a very heavy front end thump on Sunday with at least 6-8” potential before any mixing. This has been the case with past SWFEs. We just have to watch the Southeast ridge next few days in the forecasts to refine the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 How about we don’t warm nose. That would be cool. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: How about we don’t warm nose. That would be cool. Warm noses are more common that not for SWFEs in our area. The original suppressed and cold runs seemed like a mirage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06z Total QPF (snow 10:1 /mix p type) GFS: 1.1 (11.1) GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 (10) Euro: 1.1 (7.7 / SN/Sleet Frzr) Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 (11.4 / sleet) GEFS (mean: 1.2 (12.8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06Z GFS QPF: Snow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Conistent now with 1 - 1.25 QPF s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 06z Total QPF (snow 10:1 /mix p type) GFS: 1.1 (11.1) GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 (10) Euro: 1.1 (7.7 / SN/Sleet Frzr) Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 (11.4 / sleet) For the Euro, are you saying that of the 1.1, 7.7 inches should be snow and the rest would be sleet + freezing rain? Or would the 7.7 include snow + sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said: For the Euro, are you saying that of the 1.1, 7.7 inches should be snow and the rest would be sleet + freezing rain? Or would the 7.7 include snow + sleet? Total QPF is 1.1 and total snow at 10:1 (with sleet) is 7.7 - NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Interesting to see what the EPS mean shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Warm noses are more common that not for SWFEs in our area. The original suppressed and cold runs seemed like a mirage. We all know the tendency for these to trend north over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06 GEFS: Snow (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 GEFS low mean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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