1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[WintryMixmaster]

What model suite will have the first of the recon data incorporated? Like one of the comments on the last page mentioned, it's interesting (in a bad way) like someone said that the cone of uncertainty for the heavy snow axis/amounts/snow-ice line seemed to be narrowing, and the Euro/Euro AI were very consistent over several suites, and then they suddenly made this kind of a jump. What did they see that was different?

[Utvols235]

At this point I’m ready for the hi res models (I’m getting ahead of myself)… it’s exhausting riding the roller coaster over and over.


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[Wurbus]

If they are sampling tomorrow, it probably wouldn't get injested until 18z? Even if they sample at 8am pst, 12z GFS is already rolling by then.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z EPS make of it what ye will:

 

 

run. to run snow change:

[tnweathernut]

28 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro has an 850 lp circulation run from Arkansas to Lake Ontario:

So this run manages to back into a Lakes low…..  lol

[Scottie16]

So this run manages to back into a Lakes low…..  lol

Not buying the 18Z run. Ig I’ll be up for the 00z run


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[bearman]

4 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

So this run manages to back into a Lakes low…..  lol

I am 63 years old and have been down this road for a long time, and 9 times out of 10 we always get screwed at this latitude.  Still a long way to go, but I feel like it is a long way to go until I see the snow on radar coming up the Valley.

[WintryMixmaster]

7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

So this run manages to back into a Lakes low…..  lol

Run from it, hide from it... Lakes low still arrives

[Mrwolf1972]

Today is the day we usually loose the storm so let's throw out the models today re start at 0z

[Matthew70]

So Lucy has arrived.  Ugh.

[Reb]

Just now, *Flash* said:

I really don’t want to see Bam take a victory lap. 

This 

[Matthew70]

Just now, *Flash* said:

I really don’t want to see Bam take a victory lap. 

Looks like he will.  Euro is King.  Oh wait.  GEM is king. 

[John1122]

Triple phasers happen about once every 10 to 15 years. Let's hope this one isn't it. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like there is an aircraft doing dropsondes right now, didn't take off until 22z

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

So Lucy has arrived.  Ugh.

The 18z Euro would be a really bad ice storm for most...before changing to rain on the back end.  In my few experiences w/ ice in the eastern valley....if that cold gets trapped, it doesn't get scoured.  I think the depth of the cold air keeps it frozen.  It's just what version of frozen does the forum get that is the question for me.

[GBOVolz]

So Lucy has arrived.  Ugh.

Congratulations


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[TellicoWx]

850 has been showing..18z AI GFS has it not far off from 18z Euro at KY/OH border. Difference is the strength and wind direction from the gulf between the two. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

I really don’t want to see Bam take a victory lap. 

Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things.  He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day.  He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.

[GBOVolz]

Bam makes sure to make predictions for all sides of things.  He basically canceled winter and had to retract the next day.  He will always be right, because he predicts every outcome.

Yesterday he was riding the CMC until it trended south.


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[Carvers Gap]

The 18z Euro would be a worst case scenario not because of rain...but because of insanely huge amounts of ice.  That would knock power out to many, many people.   I would gladly take rain over that business.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Yesterday he was riding the CMC until it trended south.


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That dude has been bad all winter.  Flips badly almost daily.  I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago - I mainly see it in the ENSO or MA forum - can't remember which.  He is just working for clicks.  

[TellicoWx]

Small changes with the 850 from run to run model to model is what is leading to significant changes in the p-type.

[John1122]

The lp track is 90 miles north and 2mb stronger at 18 vs 12z and that wrecks thermals. 

Ops are prone to large movements still at this range. The AI usually us extremely steady inside D5 and it barely changed at all. Just a small wobble. 

[BNAwx]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

That dude has been bad all winter.  Flips badly almost daily.  I stopped reading his stuff a year or two ago.  He is just working for clicks.  

 

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Small changes with the 850 from run to run model to model is what is leading to significant changes in the p-type.

I have no idea if it’ll happen in this case but many times, you’ll see models shift one direction in the mid-range then attempt to correct in the other direction as the event nears.  Really wouldn’t surprise me either way.

[GBOVolz]

One thing we do have going for us…. Every time Bam changes mods, the next run trends south.


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[TellicoWx]

18z AIFs vs 18z AiGFS...850 lp placement over northern KY. But notice  strength and wind direction...that's our cone of uncertainty so to speak.

[Matthew70]

Just sucks we can never just have all snow.  Well it was fun while it lasted.  DGEX made a sucker out of me.  Crazy though we have models that within 3 days still do not know what is going to happen. 

[Utvols235]

Just sucks we can never just have all snow.  Well it was fun while it lasted.  DGEX made a sucker out of me.  Crazy though we have models that within 3 days still do not know what is going to happen. 

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[John1122]

Odds are the Euro doesn't triple phase at 0z and we are closer to the last 10 runs of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely northerly trends by the AIFS and Euro at 18z in terms of sensible weather over the Valley.  AIFS moved two counties to the north and the Euro moved four.  The AIFS, after trending well south of its original solution, is back north to its original track.  The trend makes sense given that over running events often trend north.  The problem is ice and lots of it.   If it is going to rain…we had better hope this makes another jog north into those big highs.  I think big trouble is brewing if we can’t get this to warm up.
 

It is possible that our vortex is either in a blind spot at high latitudes or got sampled better.  I have nod idea which,  could be additional data or the absence of data.