1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Bigbald]

What is going on with the gfs to get that low east of the apps? Ive noticed the RGEM tries to do that as well this run, is that a transfer?  

[Weatheriscool]

Those morning lows Tuesday am on that run would be awful for alot of folks that could be out of power 

[Tucker1027]

[Mrwolf1972]

How reliable is the RAP

[Mrwolf1972]

Over inch ice

[nrgjeff]

HRRR is doing that also Mid-South to Mid-Tenn. If that MEM forecast sleet manifests itself at FZRA they are looking at 1994.
Some of the rest of North Mississippi is Quebec 1998. OK I'm out. Work intensity rivals that leading up to 4/27/11.

[Mrwolf1972]

High res models are high on freezing rain totals half to 3/4

[jaxjagman]

[Matthew70]

6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Not sure what I’m looking at.  

[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Not sure what I’m looking at.  

OBS right now,CF moving through Tn

[Tucker1027]

[Bigbald]

Is 12z CMC not ticking east with the low ?

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

OBS right now,CF moving through Tn

Thank you!

[nrgjeff]

Bless BAMS heart, there is no chance of an inch of ice in Chattanooga proper. Signal might get a half inch if they stay below freezing, but that's clickbait in town. Human should have QC'd it. Obviously it's the Mountain, but it seems a bit much even there.

Downtown to East Brainerd, I have basically no concern about life. Yeah prolly some power outages Sat. Hopefully not my house. Roads should break up on Sunday.

[TellicoWx]

Takes a thousand puzzle pieces to come together to get an ice storm in the valley (esp. Southern valley)

[Holston_River_Rambler]

What is BAMS?
 

Please don’t tell me BAM has started selling some in house model to News stations? That would make me sad. 

[tnweathernut]

I'll be keeping you northern middle TN guys in my thoughts while you are in the upper teens to mid 20's and collecting ICE for hours on end.   I'm heading to Walgreens to grab some sunscreen for when the downslope dries me out and pushes me into the 50s on Sunday...  :-)

[Scottie16]

Honestly think should have used the nw zone of Monroe Co for ice storm warning

You’d think that.


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[TellicoWx]

I can tell you 100%....

 

Any global that shows ice up on the Skyway, the resolution isn't good enough.

 

Any CAMs that show ice the placement of the resolution is off.

[Runman292]

I have returned from the dead, lol. What have I missed? Ice storm is definitely not what I'm wanting to see. I'm hoping that my neck of the woods in Oak Ridge isn't hit too hard.

[bearman]

2 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

I have returned from the dead, lol. What have I missed? Ice storm is definitely not what I'm wanting to see. I'm hoping that my neck of the woods in Oak Ridge isn't hit too hard.

Not sure if it happens this way but often when we have a front pass like the one that is coming in Sunday night we will have high winds and light precipitation.  IF it unfolds like that, the roads should mostly dry up before the real cold temps come roaring in. This may save us in the Valley, especially around Knoxville and other metro areas.  The back roads and other sheltered areas are another thing.  NOT SAYING WE NEED TO TAKE THIS LIGHTLY, but just looking at what happens very often in the valley.

[Mrwolf1972]

7 minutes ago, bearman said:

Not sure if it happens this way but often when we have a front pass like the one that is coming in Sunday night we will have high winds and light precipitation.  IF it unfolds like that, the roads should mostly dry up before the real cold temps come roaring in. This may save us in the Valley, especially around Knoxville and other metro areas.  The back roads and other sheltered areas are another thing.  NOT SAYING WE NEED TO TAKE THIS LIGHTLY, but just looking at what happens very often in the valley.

Supposed to have like 3 inches of rain high winds wont dry that up quickly the temps are gonna drop quickly too.

[nrgjeff]

That scenario makes a lot of sense in Chattanooga. Knox and points north could have more light precip. Sunday night. In this business anything is possible for both locations. We'll know Monday morning. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Not sure if it happens this way but often when we have a front pass like the one that is coming in Sunday night we will have high winds and light precipitation.  IF it unfolds like that, the roads should mostly dry up before the real cold temps come roaring in. This may save us in the Valley, especially around Knoxville and other metro areas.  The back roads and other sheltered areas are another thing.  NOT SAYING WE NEED TO TAKE THIS LIGHTLY, but just looking at what happens very often in the valley.

Could play out that way, but I'm personally skeptical of the surface warming for areas especially north of Hamilton and Bradley counties. We've had these scenarios especially in the 90's when it seemed like we had many ice storms that decade in the valley where it was supposed to warm after several hours of ice only for the cold to lock in and remain stubborn. If that happens this could truly be a devastating ice storm even historic potentially for the area. I would prepare as though it will be really bad better to be over prepared than not. I think folks should prepare for backup power and/or heat at the very least. The window to prepare is getting smaller. I'm not saying do the buy out the store type stuff, but just have a plan to deal with no power and no heat for an extended period of time especially folks in more rural and or heavily wooded areas and even wooded subdivisions.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Stovepipe]

I'm trying to understand how much plain rain to expect and what the duration could be, because there seems to be quite a bit of variation in the models still today.  Surface temps at TYS range from mid 30s to mid 40s at peak depending on the solution you look at.  That has a lot to do with how much rain falls to wash away the slop.  I guess the models that are punching the low right up through TN will be correct and we'll have more rain and maybe a minimal ice problem when the temps crash.  But, if the low slides below, we're looking at the potential for concrete.  Can someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old, which low path and rain scenario seems more realistic at this point and why?

[nrgjeff]

Yeah the model ice forecasts are not great this set-up. One has to manually look at QPF and dissect which of those periods are below freezing. I get lower ice in Chatty than NWS. I get higher Knox northeast. Lee side foothills downslope? I give up!

[Scottie16]

Yeah the model ice forecasts are not great this set-up. One has to manually look at QPF and dissect which of those periods are below freezing. I get lower ice in Chatty than NWS. I get higher Knox northeast. Lee side foothills downslope? I give up!

This has been one of the most frustrating storms to track. Not due to getting the rug pulled either.


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[Tucker1027]

Yeah the model ice forecasts are not great this set-up. One has to manually look at QPF and dissect which of those periods are below freezing. I get lower ice in Chatty than NWS. I get higher Knox northeast. Lee side foothills downslope? I give up!

Thoughts on the CAD coming into the southern valley?


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[jaxjagman]

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
   Saturday through Saturday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western
   North America, it still appears that several short wave troughs will
   gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across
   the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley through this
   period.  This is likely to include at least a couple of merging
   perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the
   international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great
   Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
   before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the
   southern Great Basin.  Yet another impulse, emerging from the
   southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and currently in the form of
   a mid-level low as it digs toward Baja, is forecast to undergo
   considerable deformation while being forced eastward, then
   northeastward, across the northern Mexican Plateau into the southern
   Great Plains by late Saturday night.

   This is being preceded by the southeastward development of an
   expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east
   of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity.  While
   highest surface pressures centered across the Upper Midwest, Ohio
   Valley and Great Lakes at the outset of the period are forecast to
   continue to fall while shifting northeastward, it appears that the
   residual Arctic air mass will impede significant inland surface
   cyclogenesis.  

   Models do still indicate modest deepening of surface troughing in
   one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower
   Ohio Valley (as well as in another near/offshore of the Carolina
   coast) by late Saturday through Saturday night.  Elevated moisture
   return above the cold air to the north and northwest of this feature
   appears likely to be accompanied by weak destabilization.  However,
   appreciable boundary-layer destabilization along the surface trough
   axis, inland across southeastern Louisiana through southeastern/east
   central Mississippi and adjacent western Alabama by 12Z Sunday,
   appears unlikely.  This is expected to minimize the risk for severe
   weather.

   ...Southern Great Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
   Convection allowing output and other guidance suggest that the most
   substantive potential for thunderstorm development will largely
   focus just to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, near/inland
   of mid/upper Texas Gulf coastal areas through Louisiana and
   central/southwestern Mississippi Saturday through Saturday night.. 
   Layers of developing weak conditional and convective instability
   further aloft, and to the west through north, might become
   supportive of convective development capable of producing lightning,
   anywhere from the Texas South Plains and Big Country into the Mid
   South.  The extent of this potential remains a bit unclear due to
   spread evident in the model output.  However, further adjustments to
   the 10 percent thunder line may be needed in subsequent outlooks for
   this period.

   ..Kerr.. 01/23/2026

[nrgjeff]

Bigger problem for North Georgia.

5 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Thoughts on the CAD coming into the southern valley.

In spring (when I wanna chase) it curls around and stabilizes everything. In winter the warm nose usually wins. 

Hey @jaxjagmanwe do have Day 3 Marginal in South Bama and text mentions tornadoes!